What's New

Predictions for 2016 - Wikistrat

Experts of Wikistrat, an online global strategic consultancy, predict the following major events and trends across the world in 2016:

(a) Putin will be forced to choose between Oligarchs and Public

(b) Iran - More crackdowns on dissent will issue

(c) Afghanistan - A test for the Taliban

(d) India - Making up lost ground in Central Asia as Full Member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization 

(e) China Economy - State-Owned Enterprises reform to be tackled 

(f) David Cameron will get most of what he wants to stay in the EU

(g)The EU will get stronger

(h) ISIS switches tactics beyond territory to soft targets across the world 

(i) Oil prices will rebound but unlikely to exceed $60 a barrel

(j) Self-driving cars will gather momentum 

(k) Internet of Things will go deeper

(i) Cyber-security poses ransom risks and solutions 

(j) US Presidential Election will embrace big data

Download Wikistrat-Predictions-for-2016

New warfare or power projection - Connectivity

Mark Leonard, co-founder and director of the European Council on Foreign Relations, the first pan-European think tank, fields a think-piece, Connectivity Wars, on the increasing tendency of nations to use connectivity to exert coercion or to project power. 

He quotes the following examples -

To exert coercion 

(a) Sanctions or disruptions through trade, finance, investment, and the flow of money (through the world's leading currencies) (e.g. sanctions against Russia over Ukraine) ;

(b) Threatening or hinting at massive migration flows to neighboring territories (Turkey in the current European migration crisis) ; 

(c) Using international law such as the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) to restrain adversary actions (Read China in the South China Sea) or exclusive free trade agreements to marginalize rivals (e.g. the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) excluding China) ;

To project power

(d) Building infrastructure across nations to deepen their integration and dependence e.g. the One Belt, One Road initiative connecting Europe and Eurasia by sea and overland to China. 

According to Mark Leonard, there seem to be specific theaters where a single power or force may hold a predominant position. What he calls the new G7 are as follows - 

• International finance - United States
• Regulatory regimes  - European Union
• Construction without borders - China
• Migration leverage - Turkey 
• Disruptive "Spoiler" of Western actions - Russia
• Energy - Saudi Arabia
• Global connectivity - People through the power of the internet 

In the final analysis, power distribution in the 21st century is no longer dictated by parity of military forces. Disruptive asymmetric forces, such as those exerted by ISIS, could be as deadly and even more effective than aircraft carriers or supersonic missiles.  

Apart from Hard Power, the term "Soft Power" (aka Professor Joesph Nye) is increasingly being evoked. Western culture and norms, alongside with the English language, are powerful levers of influence. 

Now, perhaps we should add "Connectivity" to the list. 

Taiwan's January 2016 Elections and Implications for US-China Relations

On the eve of Taiwan's potentially game-changing Elections in January 2016, Richard Bush, a senior fellow of the Foreign Policy Program and director of Center for East Asia Policy Studies at Brookings Institution, presents an in-depth analysis of Taiwan's changing political dynamics, including various scenarios that may challenge US-China relations. 

Download Brookings - Taiwan’s January 2016 Elections and Implications for the US

At the historic meeting with President Ma Yingjiu, President Xi laid down Beijing's bottom line - adherence to the One China Principle in the "1992 Consensus". This Consensus was formerly denied by Ms Chai Ingwen, who now enjoys a huge margin to win the 2016 Presidential Elections.

While Ms Chai's Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has garnished overwhelming support over the withering Kuomintang (KMT), polls show that a majority of the Taiwanese people clearly prefer a peaceful and stable relationship with the Mainland. Turbulence would be bad for business and the economy which are represented by powerful interests.

Ms Chai has yet to clearly define her stand on the "1992 Consensus" while Beijing, not trusting her political leanings, may not accept circumlocution. If Ms Chai wins the election as predicted, there is still hope for some check and balance if the DPP fails to gain the upper hand in the Legislative Yuan in Parliamentary Elections. If the DPP becomes totally unfettered, a great deal would depend on what and how Ms Chai will say and act as President. 

According to the Brookings analysis, US national interests remain to be best served by dual deterrence against tendencies on either side of the Taiwan Strait to undermine the status quo.

China's response to threat of US arms sale to Taiwan

Interview on 19 December with Radio Sputnik, an international state-owned radio station based in Moscow 

The Rise of Asia and Its Impact on the Global Order

At the launch of the Asia Society Policy Institute's (ASPI) new policy initiative, The Rise of Asia and its Impact on the Global Order, members of the initiative’s policy commission discuss institutions of global governance established after World War II, how they no longer reflect Asia's growing economic and geopolitical role in the world, and how they might be reformed. ASPI President Kevin Rudd moderates the discussion with Jin-Yong Cai, Barry Desker, Pratap Bhanu Mehta, and Joseph S. Nye Jr. Click here for the video recording  Background to the discussion and the policy commission discussants is here

For lack of time, you may wish to access directly the delivery by Pratap Bhanu Mehta, President and Chief Executive of the Center for Policy Research (CPR), on why the risks of global war may be over-exaggerated (time counter 29:00 onwards) and that by Professor Joseph Nye, University Distinguished Service Professor and formerly Dean of Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs, Chair of the National Intelligence Council, and Deputy Under Secretary of State for Security Assistance, Science and Technology on why the US may need to share power with a "returning" Asia (read China) (time counter 48:00 onwards). 

Andrew's Newsletter December 2015

Greetings! May I first wish you a rewarding holiday season and a prosperous 2016. 

Before our very eyes, the global order is quietly tilting towards China.  The centrality of "the middle kingdom" is being revived in a series of initiatives of epic significance. One Belt, One Road, Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), RMB as a No.3 world currency, and China's pivotal role at COP21 in Paris, to name but a few examples. 

As Great Power rivalry in the Asia-Pacific gathers pace, China is redoubling attention on Europe, Eurasia and Africa. The shifts in global dynamics are also informed by the collapse of energy prices, translating into likely winners and losers. 

As if all this is not enough for a year's events, China's politics and society are also rapidly changing. 

 

To catch up with such breathless developments, the following may offer a peep into what lies beneath the surface. 

 

Climate Change

 

Paris Accord promises to change the world   (A preliminary tour d'horizon) 

 

China's leading role at Paris COP 21 (Gleans of hope this time around) 

 

Geopolitics and international relations 

 

How a softer approach by the US to balancing a rising China could pay dividends (My Op-ed in the South China Morning Post). 

 

A more detailed analysis is America has more to gain from soft power than hard power  

 

Another Op-ed by Simon Winchester (author of a new big-picture book "Pacific" in the New York Times) gives a backdrop on China's Pacific Overtures

 

US perception of an aggressive China despite President Xi's assurances (TV interview with RT on President Xi's address at the United Nations) 

 

Historic Xi-Ma meeting and Cross-Strait relations (TV interview on China's Xinhua News Network Corporation (CNC) on both English and Chinese channels) 

 

First China-Japan-South Korea Trilateral Summit in three years (Live TV interview with Turkish Radio Television (TRT) Istanbul)

 

One Belt, One Road

 

The implications of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the One Belt, One Road (OBOR) initiative  (A PowerPoint presentation)

 

China-Russia-Canada-America high-speed rail? (A pipe-dream of biblical proportions?) 

Socio-economics

 

The rise and fall of the Chinese economy  (An overview drawing on McKinsey Global Institute and other sources) 

 

Changing Face of China (Royal Society for Asian Affairs Biennial Dinner Speech by Lord Stephen Green, ex-Chairman of HSBC) 

 

Finance

 

China’s Renminbi approved by IMF as a main world currency  (A compendium of perspectives) 

 

How the RMB may usher in a post-Bretton Woods new world order (A brief analysis) 

 

Energy

 

IEA 2015 World Energy Outlook Report  (Highlights and analysis) 

 

The future of energy  (Analysis drawing on a collection of McKinsey research papers) 

 

China and the Middle East in a New Energy Landscape (How changing dynamics are tilting in China's favor) 

 

Africa

 

African sustainable development through "quality" extractive industries (A Distinguished Keynote presentation at an international conference in Livingstone, Zambia) 

 

Post-2015 African Development Agenda and implications for China and India (A forward-looking analysis taking account of the Continent's top priorities post-2015) 

 

India and China compete for business in Africa  (TV panel discussion on CCTV (China Central Television) America based in Washington D.C.) 

 

Cheer up and chill out

 

In tune with the festive season, you may find joy, hope, inspiration, fun and humor, and perhaps wisdom in an repertoire of music, videos, songs and words, There is also a collection in Chinese. 

 

RSS feed and weblinks

 

This newsletter is uploaded to my website here. You may wish to save it for reference or reading at leisure. You may also wish to share the link with your colleagues and friends on Facebook, LinkedIn, Whatsapp, Twitter or other social media devices. 

 

My postings are regularly uploaded under the three blogs CHINAwatch, Publications and What is New on my website

www.andrewleunginternationalconsultants.com   
 

If you wish instant access as soon as these postings appear, just click on “Subscribe to this blog’s feed” under RSS Feed on top of the right-hand column of each blog. Select the appropriate Google feed option. It is absolutely free of charge.

 

A collection of leading China media and research sites may be found under China Links.

 

You may find it convenient to save my website on your computer, laptop, tablet, Blackberry, iPhone or iPad as a reference resource.

 

Consultation services

 

If you wish to consult for various reasons including corporate board meetings, you may do so by telephone, Skype or video conferencing. Please email me personally at [email protected] or text my Hong Kong mobile +852 98198987.  

 

I can also be reached on Skype at andrew.k.p.leung, LinkedIn at andrewleunginternational, Whatsapp at (852) 98198987, WeChat at Andrewkpleung, Facebook at andrewkinpongleung, and Twitter at @Andrewkpleung.'

Speaking and lecturing opportunities

Throughout the year, I am open to invitations for speaking engagements, university summer programs, visiting lectures, or tailor-made electives on China as a visiting/adjunct professor, using English or Putonghua as a medium of instruction. I am prepared to stay on any campus around the world for periods of up to several weeks. Please email me with proposals.  

 

A business networking and speaking platform in Hong Kong

 

As an Advisor to the Denmark-based Executives’ Global Network (EGN) Hong Kong, I wish to extend to you the opportunity of fielding a suitable speaker for an EGN event in Hong Kong. This will be entirely at our own cost with acknowledgement of your support or that of your organization, provided that we are not asked to cover any speaking fee, travel or accommodation expenses.

 

Executives’ Global Network Click here

EGN Hong Kong Click here 

 

Courtesies

 

I look forward to your guidance, advice, comments, suggestions, and criticisms. Please feel free to share any of my papers, articles, presentations, and TV interviews with your colleagues or friends. You are also welcome to publish any of them with full attribution.

If you think that I may add value to your endeavours in any way, please let me know how I may help.  If for any reason you do not wish to receive my emails, just ask me to delete your name from my databank permanently.

 

Best personal regards,

 

Andrew K.P. Leung, SBS, FRSA

International and Independent China Strategist

www.andrewleunginternationalconsultants.com   

 

Positions

 

Chairman and CEO, Andrew Leung International Consultants Limited
(Founded in London, now re-incorporated in Hong Kong)
China Futures Fellow, Berkshire Publishing Group, Massachusetts, USA (2011-13)
Brain Trust Member, The Evian Group (global think-tank), Lausanne, Switzerland
Gerson Lehrman Group (Global Experts) Council Member 
International Expert, Reuters Insight Community of Experts, Thompson Reuters
Senior Analyst, Wikistrat, a cloud-sourced global strategic consultancy
Senior Consultant, MEC International (a UK-based global strategic energy consultancy) 
Distinguished Contributor, Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance (ATCA) (global think-tank)
Fellow of the Royal Society for the Encouragement of Arts, Manufactures and Commerce (FRSA)
Elected Member, Royal Society for Asian Affairs
Advisory Board Member, The e-Centre, European Centre for e-Commerce and Internet Law
Advisory Board Member, The Global Analyst, India
Hong Kong Advisory Board Member, Denmark-based Executive Global Network (EGN)
Global Commercial Agent, Changsha City, China
Visiting Professor, London Metropolitan University Business School
(The following until 19 May 2010, on permanent relocation back to Hong Kong)
Governing Council Member, King’s College London, UK (2004-2010)
Advisory Board Member, China Policy Institute, Nottingham University, UK (2005 -2010)
Founding Chairman, China Group, Institute of Directors City Branch, London, UK (2006-2010)
Vice Chairman, 48 Group Club, UK (2008-2010)
Committee Member of RSA, London Region, UK (2006-2010)
Visiting Professor, Sun Yat-sen University Business School, China (2005-10) 

 

Included in UK's Who's Who since 2002
Awarded the Silver Bauhinia Star (SBS) in the July 2005 Hong Kong Honours List  

The emergence of a post-Bretton Woods new world order

As World War II drew to a close, the battle for a new world order began at Bretton Woods. At stake was the displacement of the British Pound by the US dollar in defining global commerce and economy in the decades, if not centuries, ahead. How the battle was fought by two leading figures on opposite sides in conference-room intrigue and behind-the-scene corridors of power was captured in Benn Steil's seminal work The Battle of Bretton Woods - John Maynard Keynes, Harry Dexter White, and the Making of a New World Order,a Council on Foreign Relations book, Princeton University Press, Princeton and Oxford, 2013.

The dominance of the dollar has since been consolidated by the creation of "Bretton Woods institutions" - the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Asian Development Bank (ADB), all dominated by the West in entrenched veto powers, particularly the United States. It has since defined an era of Pan Americana up to the advent of the 21st century. 

Now as China's growing footprints emerge across the four continents, a New York Times article of 4 December describes how China skilfully wielded her inclusive global economic clout in winning the battle of creating a world bank of her own. This signals a first break from the stronghold of the Bretton Woods institutions.

The twists and turns of negotiations leading up to the establishment of the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) are reminiscent of those in Ben Steil's tome. The support of 57 countries around the world, including the United Kingdom and other key allies of the United States, heralded the possible beginning of a fresh, perhaps more multi-polar world order, where China is likely to be playing a much more influential role. 

The swing of the pendulum is further evidenced by the IMF's recent recognition of the Renminbi (RMB) as a main world currency Click here and by China's leading role at the Paris COP21 Climate Change world summit. Click here 

This shift, for better or for worse depending on where you stand, is happening so fast that many countries are still struggling to cope.

In any event, it is becoming even more critical to read a rising and changing China correctly and to help it shape a new world order that is more peaceful, more equitable, more liberal, more prosperous and more sustainable.