Mark Leonard, co-founder and director of the European Council on Foreign Relations, the first pan-European think tank, fields a think-piece, Connectivity Wars, on the increasing tendency of nations to use connectivity to exert coercion or to project power.
He quotes the following examples -
To exert coercion
(a) Sanctions or disruptions through trade, finance, investment, and the flow of money (through the world's leading currencies) (e.g. sanctions against Russia over Ukraine) ;
(b) Threatening or hinting at massive migration flows to neighboring territories (Turkey in the current European migration crisis) ;
(c) Using international law such as the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) to restrain adversary actions (Read China in the South China Sea) or exclusive free trade agreements to marginalize rivals (e.g. the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) excluding China) ;
To project power
(d) Building infrastructure across nations to deepen their integration and dependence e.g. the One Belt, One Road initiative connecting Europe and Eurasia by sea and overland to China.
According to Mark Leonard, there seem to be specific theaters where a single power or force may hold a predominant position. What he calls the new G7 are as follows -
- International finance - United States
- Regulatory regimes - European Union
- Construction without borders - China
- Migration leverage - Turkey
- Disruptive "Spoiler" of Western actions - Russia
- Energy - Saudi Arabia
- Global connectivity - People through the power of the internet
In the final analysis, power distribution in the 21st century is no longer dictated by parity of military forces. Disruptive asymmetric forces, such as those exerted by ISIS, could be as deadly and even more effective than aircraft carriers or supersonic missiles.
Apart from Hard Power, the term "Soft Power" (aka Professor Joesph Nye) is increasingly being evoked. Western culture and norms, alongside with the English language, are powerful levers of influence.
Now, perhaps we should add "Connectivity" to the list.
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