On the eve of Taiwan's potentially game-changing Elections in January 2016, Richard Bush, a senior fellow of the Foreign Policy Program and director of Center for East Asia Policy Studies at Brookings Institution, presents an in-depth analysis of Taiwan's changing political dynamics, including various scenarios that may challenge US-China relations.
Download Brookings - Taiwan’s January 2016 Elections and Implications for the US
At the historic meeting with President Ma Yingjiu, President Xi laid down Beijing's bottom line - adherence to the One China Principle in the "1992 Consensus". This Consensus was formerly denied by Ms Chai Ingwen, who now enjoys a huge margin to win the 2016 Presidential Elections.
While Ms Chai's Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has garnished overwhelming support over the withering Kuomintang (KMT), polls show that a majority of the Taiwanese people clearly prefer a peaceful and stable relationship with the Mainland. Turbulence would be bad for business and the economy which are represented by powerful interests.
Ms Chai has yet to clearly define her stand on the "1992 Consensus" while Beijing, not trusting her political leanings, may not accept circumlocution. If Ms Chai wins the election as predicted, there is still hope for some check and balance if the DPP fails to gain the upper hand in the Legislative Yuan in Parliamentary Elections. If the DPP becomes totally unfettered, a great deal would depend on what and how Ms Chai will say and act as President.
According to the Brookings analysis, US national interests remain to be best served by dual deterrence against tendencies on either side of the Taiwan Strait to undermine the status quo.
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