What's New

Andrew's Newsletter June 2016

Greetings! And the very best wishes to you and your family. 

 

The outcome of a summer of uncertainties is awaited with bated breath. On 23 June, the fate of the UK Referendum on "Brexit" hangs in the balance.  At the 18-21 July US National Convention, the Republican Party may well declare Donald Trump its Presidential Nominee. Meanwhile, the vicissitudes of China's economic restructuring and Great Power aspirations continue to confound and bewilder even the most seasoned China watchers. To many, in an increasingly connected world, China's Belt and Road initiative remains an enigma.

 

Hopefully, the following may offer a few insights into the world's changing dynamics for 2016 and beyond.

 

Global perspectives

 

New Era of Global Connectivity (Leads to "Connectography", "Fourth Industrial Revolution", "Era of Global Digitization", and "Belt and Road")

Emerging and Growth Leading Economies (EAGLES), BBVA Annual Report 2016 (Continuing shift of global economic center of gravity to the Pacific) 

 

China Overview

 

China drifting towards sunset? (Feature article in The Global Analyst, an Indian flagship global business magazine) 

Deciphering China's 13th Five Year Plan (2016-20) (An analysis across the board) 

China on track to meet 5-Year Goals?  (Op-ed on the Insight Page of the South China Morning Post) Original fuller analysis

Challenges facing China's new Five Year Plan (2016-20) (TV interview on ABC (Australian Broadcasting Television)) 

"China’s tri-lemma—and a possible solution"  (An analysis of China's structural economic challenges) 

 

Politics

 

Is President Xi's power concentration damaging the country?  (An analytical response to The Economist's article "Beware the cult of Xi") 

Cultural Revolution 50th Anniversary - Scars and memories  (TV interview with TRT, Turkey's premier international TV channel based in Istanbul) 

 

Economy

 

China’s Economic Transition: Separating Fact from Fiction (Presentations by IHS, a global US business consultancy firm) 

China's Manufacturing Strategy - Made in China 2025 (A succinct analysis) 

What is driving the Chinese consumer, economic headwinds notwithstanding (A McKinsey report) 

Despite risks, One Belt, One Road has opportunities galore (Op-ed on the Insight Page of the South China Morning Post)

 

Finance

 

Seeing through the fog of Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) (Asia Society interview with AIIB President Mr Jin Liqun) 

Foreign central banks encouraged to hold renminbi interbank assets (Analysis by Natixis, a French Corporate and Investment Bank)   

The Panama papers Tax Scandal (TV interview on ABC (Australian Broadcasting Corporation))

 

Geopolitics 

 

A Framework for US Foreign Policy toward China - Brookings Institution  (A Brookings Institution paper) 

US-led Asia-Pacific Re-balance 2025 and prospects for stable relations with China (A take on the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) 275-page report) 

South China Sea: 'Beijing is able to counterbalance US dominance'  (Live radio interview with Radio Sputnik based in Moscow) 

 

Energy

 

Looming water wars: the case of the Tibetan Plateau (Speaking notes for documentary interview in Berlin studio for National Geographic)

China's Energy Dynamics and Global Implications for the 21st Century  (A PowerPoint presentation at an international conference on EU-Asia Relations in Global Politics) 

China's State Grid Corp's $50 trillion plans to harness Arctic winds and equatorial sunlight (A visionary idea of energy connectivity) 

 

Hong Kong

 

China-Hong Kong Economic and Trading International Association

 

I have recently been elected Honorary President of a 1000-member Hong Kong and China-connected business association covering 15 different business sectors with deep and extensive business connections on the Mainland. Over the past 20 years, the Association has organized and received hundreds of China business delegations from and to the Mainland, Greater China, and other parts of the world. It is now-poised to expand business links with Europe and other regions, including investments, M & As, partnerships, marketing and distribution, capitalizing on China's Belt and Road Initiative.

 

Prospects for Harbin-Hong Kong-Russia business co-operation (An introduction) 

 

Cross-border M & A propositions

 

Separately, and strictly in my own personal capacity, you are cordially invited to send me, in confidence, concise details of any proposition for cross-border M & As in any business sector on a no-commitment basis for either side, initially. These include any business or stand-alone assets for sale or acquisition. Please limit details per proposition to a one page self-contained PDF document, including key financial data, any photo images, and contact phone numbers and email addresses. 

 

Relying on my extensive network of some professional contacts worldwide, I will try to match buy and sell sides, and, where appropriate and subject to mutually agreed terms, facilitate subsequent transactions, working with professionals in banking, insurance, due diligence, legal and accounting services as necessary.

 

Pending final outcomes, I will also be able to feature suitable propositions, redacted as necessary, on my website free-of-charge subject to mutual consent. My website is regularly accessed in some 30 countries, including my 6,000 professional contacts across the globe.   

 

If you are interested, please send me an email at [email protected]

 

Consultation services

 

If you wish to consult including corporate board briefings, you may do so by telephone, Skype or video conferencing. Please email me personally at [email protected] or text my Hong Kong mobile +852 98198987.  

 

I can also be reached on Skype at andrew.k.p.leung, LinkedIn at andrewleunginternational, Whatsapp at (852) 98198987, WeChat at Andrewkpleung, Facebook at andrewkinpongleung, and Twitter at @Andrewkpleung

 

Speaking and lecturing engagements

 

Throughout the year, I am open to invitations for speaking engagements, visiting lectures including university summer programs and tailor-made electives on China as a visiting/adjunct professor, using English or Putonghua as a medium of instruction. Subject to mutually agreed terms, I am open to propositions to stay on campus for periods of up to several weeks. Please email me with proposals. 

 

A business networking and speaking platform in Hong Kong

 

As an Advisor to the Denmark-based Executives’ Global Network (EGN) Hong Kong, I wish to extend to you the opportunity of fielding a suitable speaker for an EGN event in Hong Kong. This will be entirely at our own cost with acknowledgement of your support or that of your organization, provided that we are not asked to cover any speaking fee, travel or accommodation expenses.

 

Executives’ Global Network Click here

EGN Hong Kong Click here  

 

RSS feed and weblinks

 

My postings are regularly uploaded under the three blogs CHINAwatch, Publications and What is New on my website www.andrewleunginternationalconsultants.com  

 

This newsletter is uploaded to my website here. You may wish to save it for reference or reading at leisure. You may also wish to share the link with your colleagues and friends on Facebook, LinkedIn, Whatsapp, Twitter or other social media devices. 

 

If you wish instant access as soon as these postings appear, just click on “Subscribe to this blog’s feed” under RSS Feed on top of the right-hand column of each blog. Select the appropriate Google feed option. It is absolutely free of charge.

 

A collection of leading China media and research sites may be found under China Links.

 

You may find it convenient to save my website on your computer, laptop, tablet, Blackberry, iPhone or iPad as a reference resource.

 

Cheer up and chill out

 

While the Year of the Monkey seems to be filled with doom and gloom, you may find joy, hope, inspiration, fun and humor, and perhaps wisdom in my website's repertoire of music, videos, songs and words, There is also a collection in Chinese. 

 

Chi Lin Nunnery 志蓮淨苑 and adjoining Nan Lian Garden 南蓮園池 (Snapshots of tranquility) 

 

An invitation to breakfast or afternoon tea in Catalonia, Spain

 

During August to October this year, I will be staying in London. Please drop me a line if you want to take advantage of my presence there. 

 

From 29 August to 3 September, I will be enjoying a short family holiday at the Castell-Platja d'Aro, Catalonia, Spain. If you happen to be in the vicinity, you are most welcome to visit us at the Castell for breakfast or afternoon tea. But please email us early. 

 

Courtesies

 

I look forward to your guidance, advice, comments, suggestions, and criticisms. Please feel free to share any of my papers, articles, presentations, and TV interviews with your colleagues or friends. You are also welcome to publish any of them with full attribution.

 

If you think that I may add value to your endeavours in any way, please let me know how I may help.  If for any reason you do not wish to receive my emails, just ask me to delete your name from my databank permanently.

 

Best personal regards,

 

Andrew K.P. Leung, SBS, FRSA

International and Independent China Strategist

www.andrewleunginternationalconsultants.com   

 

Positions

 

Chairman and CEO, Andrew Leung International Consultants Limited

(Founded in London, now re-incorporated in Hong Kong)

Honorary President, China Hong Kong Economic and Trading International Association (from 28 March, 2016) 

Download 中國香港國際經貿合作協會簡介和組織架構  

Download A brief introduction to the China-Hong Kong Economic and Trading International Association

China Futures Fellow, Berkshire Publishing Group, Massachusetts,USA(2011-13)

Brain Trust Member, The Evian Group (global think-tank), Lausanne, Switzerland

Gerson Lehrman Group (Global Experts) Council Member 

International Expert, Reuters Insight Community of Experts, Thompson Reuters

Senior Analyst, Wikistrat, a cloud-sourced global strategic consultancy

Senior Consultant, MEC International (a UK-based global strategic energy consultancy) 

Distinguished Contributor, Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance (ATCA) (global think-tank)

Fellow of the Royal Society for the Encouragement of Arts, Manufactures and Commerce (FRSA)

Elected Member, Royal Society for Asian Affairs

Advisory Board Member, The e-Centre, European Centre for e-Commerce and Internet Law

Advisory Board Member, The Global Analyst, India

Hong Kong Advisory Board Member, Denmark-based Executive Global Network (EGN)
Global Commercial Agent, Changsha City, China

Visiting Professor, London Metropolitan University Business School

(The following until 19 May 2010, on permanent relocation back to Hong Kong)

Governing Council Member, King’s College London, UK (2004-2010)

Advisory Board Member, China Policy Institute, Nottingham University, UK (2005 -2010)

Founding Chairman, China Group, Institute of Directors City Branch, London, UK (2006-2010)Vice Chairman, 48 Group Club, UK (2008-2010)Committee Member of RSA, London Region, UK (2006-2010)

Visiting Professor, Sun Yat-sen University Business School, China (2005-10)

 

Included in UK's Who's Who since 2002

Awarded the Silver Bauhinia Star (SBS) in the July 2005 Hong Kong Honours List  

Emerging and Growth Leading Economies (EAGLES), BBVA Annual Report 2016

According to the Annual Report,

• The Emerging World will account for almost four fifths of global growth 2015-25. . 
• Of which, the Asia-Pacific region will account for 78.2% of the increase.
• New entrants to the EAGLEs and Nest groups coming mainly from Asia and the Middle East.
• Middle classes will continue to reshape the world’s income distribution.  
• Emerging countries are to increase their share of the global middle classes from 58% in 2015 to 75% by 2025. In 2015, China alone has 350.4 million middle-class people, compared with an aggregate of 297.7 million in North America and European advanced countries and 73.5 million in Japan.
• The educational sector will be both the motor and beneficiary of expanding middle classes, counterbalancing the effect of slower growth of labor force.
• Fixed broadband adoption will be driven by Emerging Markets with EAGLEs catching up fast with developed nations, thanks mostly to Emerging Asia.
• Media Sentiment Digital Index for the EAGLEs countries has improved significantly since late 2015, converging to G7 levels with China, India, Egypt and Turkey leading the group.
• Geopolitical risks, cyber-attacks and macroeconomic vulnerabilities are likely to remain the main risks in coming years.
• Asymmetric impact of the oil price decline is likely to impact upon current account balances of EAGLEs and Nest countries. 

Download BBVA-EAGLEs-2016

New Era of Global Connectivity

While some are still sleep-walking, a New Era of Global Connectivity is well upon us. 

Paraq Khanna, a global strategist, calls this "Connectography ". Watch his TV interview  with Fareed Zakaria on CNN, denials in the New York Times notwithstanding. 

The World Economic Forum encapsulates this in what it calls the world's "Fourth Industrial Revolution". 

Recent Mckinsey research portraits this in what it depicts as a new Era of Global Digitization .

All of the above are quietly captured, at least in part, by China's One Belt, One Road initiative.