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My live interview on Squawk Box with CNBC on Prada's latest quarterly earnings results.

The PLA’s Latest Strategic Thinking on the Three Warfares

A research paper dated 22 August, 2016 by Elsa Kania, analyst at the Long Term Strategy Group, for the Jamestown Foundation, a Washington D.C.-based think tank, expounds on the latest strategic thinking of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) on the so-called “Three Warfares” (三战) - Public Opinion Warfare (舆论战), Psychological Warfare (心理战), and Legal Warfare (法律战), which are purported to being applied China’s strategic approach in the South China Sea and beyond.

Drawing on latest military studies of China's National Defence University (NDU) and other military journals, the paper dissects how the Three Warfares are integrated to achieve strategic advantages in such areas as Control of public opinion (舆论控制); Blunting an adversary’s determination (意志挫伤); Transformation of emotion (情感转化); Psychological guidance (心智诱导); Collapse of adversary’s organisation (组织瓦解); Psychological defence (心理防御); and Restriction through law (法律制约). 

The following extracts are instructive - 

"In more general terms, the primary missions are to seize the “decisive opportunity” (先机) for controlling public opinion, organise psychological offence and defence, engage in legal struggle, and fight for popular will and public opinion. and the integration of peace and warfare (平战结合)".

"For public opinion warfare, the requirements outlined are to “demoralize one’s opponent by a show of strength” (先声夺人), “create momentum to control the situation” (造势控局), “assail strategic points” (抨击要害), and “seek the avoidance of injury” (趋利避害)."

"The principles articulated for psychological warfare focus on “integrating [psychological attacks] and armed attacks with each other” (与武力打击相结合), “carrying out offense and defense at the same time, with offense as the priority” (攻防并举以攻为主), and “synthetically using multiple forms of forces” (综合运用各种力量)".

"The implementation of legal warfare, which seeks to provide legal support to operational success, is informed by the principles to “protect national interests as the highest standard” (以维护国家利益为最高准则), “respect the basic principles of the law” (尊重法律的基本准则), “carry out [legal warfare] that centers upon military operations” (围绕军事行动展开), and “seize standards [and] flexibly use [them]” (把握规范灵活运用)."

"Beyond the traditional applications of the three warfares, the text also displays efforts to innovate in the application of these concepts to new contexts, such as counterterrorism and stability protection (反恐维稳), international peacekeeping, protecting transportation and escort (保交护航), and closing and controlling borders (封边控边)."

In sum, these stratagems hark back to Sun Tzu's ancient Art of War, that the best war can be won without bloodshed. 

Andrew's Newsletter September 2016

Greetings from Brexit-troubled but Olympics-proud London, where I am enjoying a summer break. 

The whole world is now turning upside down. Counter-intuitive outcomes such as Brexit and the Trump phenomenon add to game-changing uncertainties: the rise of navel-gazing nationalism, the proxy tugs of war in the Middle East, the future role of the United States, a slowing yet more assertive China, tensions in the South China Sea, the sustainability of stimulus-economics, and the creative destruction of deepening global inter-connectivity. I hope you are able to find new silver linings, if not the holy grail. 

The following may offer food for thought on some of the imponderables. 

Geopolitics

Our Foreign Policy Choices – Rethinking America’s Global Role – Cato Institute, Washington D.C.  (Salient points of a 113-page report) 

The West starts looking inwards while China is looking outwards  (A commentary) 

China providing aid and training to Syrian army (Exclusive TV interview on RT international news)

Absorb and Conquer: An EU approach to Russian and Chinese integration in Eurasia (An analytical report of the European Council on Foreign Relations)  

South China Sea

10 reasons why the South China Sea ruling may lead to regional peace and cooperation (My Op-ed in the South China Morning Post of 18 August, 2016). This was updated and re-written from my earlier analytical commentary - South China Sea ruling may well seek solution in regional cooperation 

South China Sea - Implications of China's joint naval exercises with Russia (TV interview on RT)

South China Sea - Coercion won't work, what will? (Live TV interview on TRT (Turkish Radio and Television Corporation))

"South China Sea: How We Got to This Stage" (Madam Fu Ying's full-length article in The National Interest)

Brexit

How Brexit can turn lemon into lemonade (A podcast of the Legatum Institute, a think-tank)

G20 - Brexit and proposed UK-China FTA (Live TV interview with ABC (Australia Broadcasting Corporation) 

Brexit demands EU reform while rattling World Order in favour of China and Russia (A commentary) 

China's view on Brexit - BBC World radio interview on day of vote counting (Radio interview on BBC World)

Turkey 

Failed coup signals struggle for the soul of modern Turkey (A brief analysis)

Africa

South Sudan turmoil - China's African involvement explained (Live TV interview on RT)

Can India match China's economic influence in Africa? (An Inside Story TV panel discussion on  Aljazeera English) 

Infrastructure

Bridging Global Infrastructure Gaps - McKinsey June 2016 Report (Salient points of a McKinsey report)   

Cross-border M & A propositions

You are welcome to send me any proposition for cross-border M & As on a no-commitment basis initially. Relying on my extensive network of contacts worldwide, I will try to match buy and sell sides and facilitate subsequent transactions as appropriate. Please limit details to a one-page PDF document, including key financial data, photo images, and contact phone numbers and email addresses. 

Consultation services

If you wish to consult, please email me at [email protected] or text my Hong Kong mobile +852 98198987.  I can also be reached on Skype at andrew.k.p.leung, LinkedIn at andrewleunginternational, Whatsapp at (852) 98198987, WeChat at Andrewkpleung, Facebook at andrewkinpongleung, and Twitter at @Andrewkpleung

Speaking and lecturing opportunities

I am open to invitations for speaking engagements, visiting lectures and tailor-made electives on China as a visiting/adjunct professor. Please email me with proposals. 

A business networking and speaking platform in Hong Kong

As an Advisor to the Denmark-based Executives’ Global Network (EGN) Hong Kong, I wish to extend to you the opportunity of fielding a suitable speaker for an EGN event in Hong Kong. This will be entirely at our own cost with acknowledgement of your support or that of your organization, provided that we are not asked to cover any speaking fee, travel or accommodation expenses.

Executives’ Global Network Click here

EGN Hong Kong Click here  

RSS feed and weblinks

My postings are regularly uploaded under three blogs CHINAwatch, Publications and What is New on my website www.andrewleunginternationalconsultants.com  A collection of leading China media and research sites can be found under China Links. Please feel free to save my website on your computer, laptop, tablet, Blackberry, iPhone or iPad as a reference resource. If you wish instant access as soon as my postings appear, just click on “Subscribe to this blog’s feed” under RSS Feed on top of the right-hand column of each blog. Select the appropriate Google feed option. It is free of charge. This newsletter is uploaded to my website here. You may save it for reference or reading at leisure and to share it on Facebook, LinkedIn, Whatsapp, Twitter or other social media devices. 

Cheer up and chill out

You may find joy, hope, wisdom, fun and humour in my website's repertoire of inspirational music, videos, songs and words, There is also a collection in Chinese. 

An invitation to morning breakfast or afternoon tea in Catalonia, Spain

My family will be staying at the Castell-Platja d'Aro, Catalonia, Spain from 29 August to 3 September. In between these dates, if you happen to be in the vicinity, you are most welcome to visit us for breakfast or afternoon tea. Please email us if you so wish. 

Courtesies

I look forward to your guidance, advice, comments, suggestions, and criticisms. You are welcome to share any of my papers, articles, presentations, and TV interviews with your colleagues or friends. You are also welcome to publish any of them with full attribution.

If you think that I may add value to your endeavours in any way, please let me know how I may help.  If for any reason you do not wish to receive my emails, just ask me to delete your name from my databank permanently.

Best personal regards,

Andrew K.P. Leung, SBS, FRSA

International and Independent China Strategist

www.andrewleunginternationalconsultants.com   

Positions

Chairman and CEO, Andrew Leung International Consultants Limited

(Founded in London, now re-incorporated in Hong Kong)

Honorary President, China Hong Kong Economic and Trading International Association (from 28 March, 2016) 

Download 中國香港國際經貿合作協會簡介和組織架構  

Download A brief introduction to the China-Hong Kong Economic and Trading International Association

China Futures Fellow, Berkshire Publishing Group, Massachusetts,USA(2011-13)
Brain Trust Member, The Evian Group (global think-tank), Lausanne, Switzerland

Gerson Lehrman Group (Global Experts) Council Member 
International Expert, Reuters Insight Community of Experts, Thompson Reuters

Senior Analyst, Wikistrat, a cloud-sourced global strategic consultancy

Senior Consultant, MEC International (a UK-based global strategic energy consultancy) 

Distinguished Contributor, Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance (ATCA) (global think-tank)
Fellow of the Royal Society for the Encouragement of Arts, Manufactures and Commerce (FRSA)
Elected Member, Royal Society for Asian Affairs

Advisory Board Member, The e-Centre, European Centre for e-Commerce and Internet Law

Advisory Board Member, The Global Analyst, India

Hong Kong Advisory Board Member, Denmark-based Executive Global Network (EGN)

Global Commercial Agent, Changsha City, China

Visiting Professor, London Metropolitan University Business School

(The following until 19 May 2010, on permanent relocation back to Hong Kong)

Governing Council Member, King’s College London, UK (2004-2010)
Advisory Board Member, China Policy Institute, Nottingham University, UK (2005 -2010)
Founding Chairman, China Group, Institute of Directors City Branch, London, UK (2006-2010)
Vice Chairman, 48 Group Club, UK (2008-2010)
Committee Member of RSA, London Region, UK (2006-2010)

Visiting Professor, Sun Yat-sen University Business School, China (2005-10)

 

Included in UK's Who's Who since 2002

Awarded the Silver Bauhinia Star (SBS) in the July 2005 Hong Kong Honours List 

 

Our Foreign Policy Choices – Rethinking America’s Global Role – Cato Institute, Washington D.C.

Released in the heat of current US Presidential Election campaigns, this timely 113-page Report  is prepared by top foreign policy experts at the Cato Institute with the unspoken intention of influencing the thinking of the upcoming new US Administration.

Overall, the Report advances the case for restraint, translating into (a) the US should not seek to solve all of the world’s problems and (b) the US should be wary of using military force to promote American interests across the globe. 

The case of restraint is reflective of bipartisan dynamics revealed by recent polls : 38 % of Americans favor restraint against 25% in favor of interventionism. This follows on a 2014 finding of the Chicago Council for Global Affairs : 70% of Americans are convinced that neither the US intervention in Iraq nor Afghanistan is worth the costs.

In some measure, it also resonates with some of the Trump campaign rhetoric, particularly as regards the requirement of allies' burden-sharing and the value of NATO. This means that whosoever wins the White House, the considerations embodied in this expert Report are likely to have at least some bearing on the future direction of American foreign policy. 

The following arguments and recommendations in the Report are instructive –

US Primacy

• Regime change by force at great costs of blood and treasure has not produced satisfactory results.
• Threats of regime change by force may backfire e.g. North Korea
• Primacy can be undermined by over-extension.
• US military dominance will endure even with military moderation.
• There are many areas of smart military savings without undermining overall American military dominance.

China and South China Sea

• US should move from containment to deterring armed conflicts with China.
• US should deploy Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) sparingly.
• Avoid formal or informal security guarantees over territorial claims of limited strategic interests to the US.
• US should promote burden-sharing with allies e.g. Japan, South Korea and Taiwan
• US should advocate peaceful resolution of territorial disputes.
• US should promote cross-strait peace and stability. But “likelihood of American military intervention on Taiwan’s behalf is diminishing as China’s military capabilities increase”. US should continue to sell asymmetric arms to Taiwan to enhance its capabilities for self-defense. Eventually, “US should end any commitment, implicit or otherwise, to use military force to defend Taiwan”.
• US-China relations is not a zero-sum game. For example, US should cooperate with the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) to promote higher standards.

Korean Peninsula

• US nuclear umbrella remains necessary but South Korea is more than capable of defending herself against North Korea’s conventional forces.
• US should therefore reduce troop deployment in South Korea, which is counter-productive in reducing tension.
• China is not happy with a recalcitrant North Korea but resists regime change for fear of regional geopolitical instability including deployment of US forces near China’s borders.
• North Korea is beginning to see green shoots of a subdued market economy. So the US should work with China to engage rather than confront North Korea.

Iran

• Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPoA), the US nuclear deal with Iran, will expire in 10-15 years, following which Iran will remain subject to strictures of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
• JCPoA is not perfect but permits intrusive robust inspection compared with leaky sanctions. US abrogation not an option, particularly in view of recent EU trade deals with Iran.
• Iran unlikely to give up expansion of Shiite influence. Better for US to work on Iran through mutual confidence-building and limited cooperation.

Afghanistan

• Almost a lost cause. Obama’s temporary troop surge shows limited results. Air strikes and drone attacks not a sustainable strategy. Taliban seized control of Kunduz, Afghanistan’s 5^th largest city in September 2015.
• Afghanistan remains a safe haven for anti-US terrorism.
• Need to retain residual force of 5,000 to 10,000 US soldiers mainly to train up Afghanistan’s own defense capabilities with binding commitment for complete withdrawal by 2020.

Russia

• Russia is no more than a regional power with limited ability for power projection globally.
• Russian aggression in Eastern Europe is a response to expansion of NATO near its border in apparent violation of Cold War promise.
• Russian annexation of Crimea and its East European resurgence not threatening US homeland security.
• US refrains from military intervention in Ukraine for fear of escalation. Decision not to supply arms as Ukraine is incompetent and corrupt.
• Sanctions often inflict upon the Russian people. Need to target sanctions more precisely against Russian military enhancement.
• Limited cooperation with Russia possible on various fronts e.g. Syria.

NATO

• Too much free-riding on US. Most NATO members, including Germany, fail to meet their own military obligations e.g. at least 2% GDP on defense and 20% of defense expenditure on equipment.
• “US Indispensable Nation” concept is obsolete in Europe which is three times Russia’s population and 10 times its GDP.
• US should move from rhetoric on burden-sharing with to burden-shifting to Europe.
• US should refrain from military intervention for weak states too small to be relevant to US military interests e.g. Montenegro.
• US should re-consider support of some NATO members becoming authoritarian if not "Neo-Fascist" e.g. Hungary and Turkey
• Risks of nuclear showdown with Russia over Baltic States incommensurate.
• US should gradually withdraw American military forces in Europe to force European nations to develop independent defense capabilities.
• “In the long term, US should consider significant dilution or even elimination of Article V provision that an attack on one NATO member constitutes an attack on all”. “Policy should likewise consider whether US interests are actually best served by remaining within the alliance.”

US Presidential power to wage war

• Need to limit Authorization for the Use of Military Force (AUMF) conferred on US President immediately after 9/11, which is being extended ad infinitum by successive Presidents in a variety of interventions e.g. Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan, ISIS etc.