Mark Leonard, director of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), sends me his two insightful articles in Project Syndicate on the world order. The first, Trump the Ideologue, argues that the new US President, like Margaret Thatcher, propounds a new ideology heralding a new epoch, even if neither can be regarded as an ideologue.
The second, What Liberal World Order?, postulates that both "Liberal Order 1.0", which ends at borders of nation states and "Liberal Order 2.0" which permeates inside nation states to defend individual rights and redefine sovereignty are now under threat. He singles out Germany and Turkey as key actors in defending, shaping or extracting benefits from the existing Liberal Order at least as it applies to Europe or Eurasia while a Brexit United Kingdom is playing with double standards.
I sent him the following comments -
(a) Both Trumpism and Thatcherism capitalize on a rising tide of popular discontent. Rather than inventing something new, both merely gave vent to the changing spirit of the times.
(b) On the Liberal World Order, I suggested that he hasn't done justice to the impact of a rising China. Albeit a relatively subdued rule-changer, China is more powerful economically and culturally than Russia or Turkey. Moreover, China is firmly embedded in the Liberal World Order defined in the global supply and value chain. Look at any product or appliances and you will find China in it somewhere even if the item is not marked "Made in China". China doesn't want to upend the Liberal World Order which has benefited her most. Nor does she want to lead it. But all signs point to her desire to have a bigger say in how this Order needs to be upheld, as in the case of Climate Change, and modified, as in the case of influence in global institutions like the IMF and the World Bank. Failing meaningful concessions, China has initiated parallel institutions like the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), which is now supported by 70 Member Countries including key Western allies. Another ambitious China-led global project is the much-vaulted One Belt, One Road initiative, linking China across continents through infrastructure and investments in tone with an Age of Connectography. Click here
Either way, there is little doubt that the sands of the Liberal World Order as we know it are rapidly shifting. China is poised to play an increasingly influential role in helping shape the things to come.
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