The above 24-page Strategy Paper of May 2017 was written for the John L Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution by Madam Fu Ying, chairperson of China's Foreign Affairs Committee of the National People’s Congress and chairperson of the Academic Committee of the National Institute of Global Strategy at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
Madam Fu Ying previously served as China’s vice minister of foreign affairs. During 2000-03, as director-general of the Foreign Ministry’s Department of Asian Affairs, she was involved in multilateral talks on the North Korean nuclear issue.
When she became Ambassador to the United Kingdom in March 2007, I organized and presided at her first ambassadorial address at the Royal Society of Arts (RSA) at John Adams Street in my former capacity as a Committee Member of the RSA London Region.
Madam Fu gave an in-depth, hands-on, and illuminating personal account of the North Korea nuclear issue's recent history, including the many twists and turns of the ill-fated Six Party Talks.
Despite immense distrust between the United States and North Korea, the Talks produced moments of real breakthrough to de-nuclearization and a long-term peace accord. But these soon passed, overwhelmed by mutual-reinforcing cycles of confrontation. These are driven, on the one hand, by an increasingly isolated and insecure North Korean regime and on the other, by growing resolve of the United States to end "strategic patience" in waiting out for regime change, multi-lateral talks notwithstanding.
In conclusion, Madam Fu envisages three possible scenarios - (a) a cycle of confrontational escalations until reaching a tipping-point of no return, (b) regime collapse which she judges to be unrealistic in the short term, and (c) re-start of sincere and serious negotiations with North Korea with the sole aim of resolving the nuclear issue and securing peace on the Peninsular without any convert objective of regime change.
Download Fu Ying - North Korean Nuclear Issue
