What's New

Former Governor Chris Patten's visit to Hong Kong

Back Chat with Radio Hong Kong on 22 September, 2017. My slot ran from counter 19:08 until 23:56, and from 46:10 to 48:00. 

Withdrawing From Overseas Bases - Why a Forward-Deployed Military Posture Is Unnecessary, Outdated, and Dangerous

A CATO Institute paper of 17 July, 2017 by John Glaser argues the following -

"The United States maintains a veritable empire of military bases throughout the world—about 800 of them in more than 70 countries. This forward-deployed military posture incurs substantial costs and disadvantages, exposing the United States to vulnerabilities and unintended consequences. The strategic justifications for overseas bases—that they deter adversaries, reassure allies, and enable rapid deployment operations—have lost much of their value and relevance in the contemporary security environment."

Download CATO Institute Paper

Andrew's mid-September 2017 Newsletter

(My quarterly Newsletters go out to some 6,000 professional contacts worldwide. The following is the mid-September issue. Back issues may be accessed under What's New on this website.) 

Greetings! 

The world is changing at a rapid pace. There are many question marks. What is the shape of President Xi's new team at the coming 19th Party Congress? Will US-China relations change for better or worse? How will China's relations with India and the EU evolve?  Will North Korea keep on being the wild card? What is to become of the Chinese economy? What is Hong Kong's future? The following may give you fresh perspectives.

 

China - Overview

 

China under President Xi Jinping (Part one of a four-part proprietary PowerPoint presentation)

How China connects the world (Part two of a four-part proprietary PowerPoint presentation)

China's Future Mega Projects (2016-2050) (A Trade Development Council video) 

A video compendium of China's history from early civilization to end of imperial dynasties (CCTV 100-video series)

 

China Economy and Business

China: Early fruits of corporate deleveraging add to growth resilience (A BBVA Research Note) 

China's Investment Landscape: Finding New Opportunities (A China Briefing report)

Making sense of Chinese outbound M & A (A McKinsey article) 

China sees biggest wave of overseas returnees (A report of Center for China and Globalization) 

Chinese luxury market trends 2017 (Synthesis of EIU, Mckinsey, Bain, Deloitte, and other reports) 

A new era of China global influence - media and films, droves, electric cars and the "i-can" generation (Various research sources) 

Emerging Market 7 (EM7) drives global growth twice as much as G7 (Brookings Institution article) 

 

US-China relations

 

How Trump may accelerate change of the world order (Part three of a four-part proprietary PowerPoint presentation)

Destined for war? China, America and the Thucydides trap (Book review) 

Substantial 100 Day-gains avert US-China trade war for time being (A Ming Pao Daily editorial) 

Trade war between China and US would inflict damage to a lot of countries (Interview with Radio Sputnik) 

Is Trump starting a trade war with China in the midst of the North Korean crisis? (Interview with Radio Sputnik) 

 

North Korea

 

What North Korea wants - a "grand bargain"  (Live TV interview on RT and video of Kevin Rudd's address to Swedish Institute of International Affairs) 

North Korean "hydrogen bomb" test demands thinking outside the box (Live TV interview on RT) 

North Korea launches missile over Japan (Live TV interview on RT)

US and South Korea hold military drills amid threats from Pyongyang (Live TV interview on RT) 

"Talk is over" over North Korea? - How the crisis can be diffused  (Live TV interview on RT and various research sources)

 

EU-China relations

 

EU–China Economic Relations to 2025: Building a Common Future (A Joint Report by Bruegel, Chatham House, China Center for International Economic Exchanges and Chinese University of Hong Kong) 

 

China/India

 

Is Japan's investment in India making China worried?  (Live TV interview on WION, New Delhi) 

India-China Stand-Off and North Korea Crisis Impact on OBOR (PowerPoint presentation) 

India, China "expeditious disengagement" deal over Doklam (Live TV interview on WION, New Delhi) 

China mocks India with a racist video over Doklam standoff  (Live TV interview on RT and various research sources)

 

Central Asia

5-S Governance recipe for sustainable development in Central Asia (Paper published by Foreign Policy Research Center, New Delhi) 

 

Cyber Warfare

 

Beijing’s Views on Norms in Cyberspace and Cyber Warfare Strategy (A US Center for International Maritime Security analysis) 

 

Environment 

 

"Parched - Global Water Wars" - A National Geographic documentary now dubbed by RTHK in Cantonese (Video) 

Home - a film by Yann Arthus-Bertrand on ecology and sustainable development (Full-length film and videos) 

 

Hong Kong

 

Hong Kong must guard "One Country" for the sake of "Two Systems" (My Op-ed in the South China Morning Post)

How a delicate balance under One Country, Two Systems may guarantee its attractiveness beyond 2047 (My Op-ed in the South China Morning Post)

"Hong Kong's Political Prisoners" - The Wall Street Journal (A critique) 

Hong Kong: The Future (Part four of a four-part proprietary PowerPoint presentation)

Coming oversea engagements

 

I will be speaking at the Aegean Economic Forum at Izmir, Turkey 25-26 October and the Amadeus Institute International MEDays Forum in Tangier, Morocco, from 8-11 November. Thereafter, I will be based in London before returning to Hong Kong on 5 December. 

 

Cheer up and chill out

 

A repertoire of inspirational music, videos, songs and words, There is also a collection in Chinese. 

 

Cross-border M & A propositions

 

You are welcome to send me propositions on a no-commitment basis initially. Please limit details to a one-page PDF document, including key financial data, photo images, contact phone numbers and email addresses. 

 

Separately, you are welcome to reach out to my son Terence, a Cambridge-educated Prince Phillip Scholar and UK-qualified lawyer-turned-banker. He has over ten years M & A experience in London with Allen & Overy, Deutsche Bank, and Houlihan Lokey. He now works on private equity with Abu Dhabi's Marya Group. His personal email address is [email protected] 

 

Consultation services

 

Please email me at [email protected] or text my Hong Kong mobile +852 98198987.  I can also be reached on Skype at andrew.k.p.leung, LinkedIn at andrewleunginternational, Whatsapp at (852) 98198987, WeChat at Andrewkpleung, Facebook at andrewkinpongleung, and Twitter at @Andrewkpleung

 

Speaking and lecturing invitations

 

Please email any invitations or proposals for speaking engagements, visiting lectures and tailor-made electives as a visiting/adjunct professor. 

 

Business networking and speaking platform in Hong Kong

 

As an Advisor to the Denmark-based Executives' Global Network Hong Kong, I welcome your suggestion of a suitable speaker for an EGN event in Hong Kong. This will be entirely at our own cost with acknowledgement of your support, provided that we are not asked to cover any speaking fee, travel or accommodation expenses.

 

RSS feed and weblinks

 

My postings are regularly uploaded under my three blogs CHINAwatch, Publications and What is New on www.andrewleunginternat ionalconsultants.com  A collection of leading China media and research sites can be found under China Links.

 

Please feel free to save my website on your computer, laptop, tablet, Blackberry, iPhone or iPad as a reference resource. If you wish instant access as soon as my postings appear, just click on “Subscribe to this blog’s feed” under RSS Feed on top of the right-hand column of each blog. Select the appropriate Google feed option. It is free of charge.

 

This newsletter is uploaded to my website here. You may save it for reference or reading at leisure and to share it on Facebook, LinkedIn, Whatsapp, Twitter or other social media devices. 

 

Courtesies

 

I look forward to your guidance, advice, comments, suggestions, and criticisms. You are welcome to share any of my papers, articles, presentations, and TV interviews with your colleagues or friends. You are also welcome to publish any of them with full attribution.

 

If you think that I may add value to your endeavours in any way, please let me know how I may help.  If for any reason you do not wish to receive my emails, just ask me to delete your name from my databank permanently.

 

Best personal regards,

 

Andrew K.P. Leung, SBS, FRSA
International and Independent China Strategist

www.andrewleunginternationalconsultants.com

 

Positions

 

Chairman and CEO, Andrew Leung International Consultants Limited

(Founded in London, now re-incorporated in Hong Kong)

Honorary President, China Hong Kong Economic and Trading International Association (from 28 March, 2016) 

Download 中國香港國際經貿合作協會簡介和組織架構  

Download A brief introduction to the China-Hong Kong Economic and Trading International Association

China Futures Fellow, Berkshire Publishing Group, Massachusetts,USA (2011-13)
Brain Trust Member, The Evian Group (global think-tank), Lausanne, Switzerland

Gerson Lehrman Group (Global Experts) Council Member 
International Expert, Reuters Insight Community of Experts, Thompson Reuters

Senior Analyst, Wikistrat, a cloud-sourced global strategic consultancy

Senior Consultant, MEC International (a UK-based global strategic energy consultancy) 

Distinguished Contributor, Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance (ATCA) (global think-tank)
Fellow of the Royal Society for the Encouragement of Arts, Manufactures and Commerce (FRSA)
Elected Member, Royal Society for Asian Affairs

Visiting Professor, London Metropolitan University Business School

Think-tank Research Fellow, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai Campus, PRC (14.4.2017-13.4.2020) 

Advisory Board Member, The e-Centre, European Centre for e-Commerce and Internet Law

Advisory Board Member, The Global Analyst, India

Hong Kong Advisory Board Member, Denmark-based Executive Global Network (EGN)

Honorary Adviser, International Institute of Management (IIM) 

Global Commercial Agent, Changsha City, China

(The following until 19 May 2010, on permanent relocation back to Hong Kong)

Governing Council Member, King’s College London, UK (2004-2010)
Advisory Board Member, China Policy Institute, Nottingham University, UK (2005 -2010)
Founding Chairman, China Group, Institute of Directors City Branch, London, UK (2006-2010)
Vice Chairman, 48 Group Club, UK (2008-2010)
Committee Member of RSA, London Region, UK (2006-2010)

Visiting Professor, Sun Yat-sen University Business School, China (2005-10)

Included in UK's Who's Who since 2002
Awarded the Silver Bauhinia Star (SBS) in the July 2005 Hong Kong Honours List 

EU–China Economic Relations to 2025: Building a Common Future

A Joint Report of September 2017 by Bruegel, Chatham House, China Center for International Economic Exchanges and The Chinese University of Hong Kong, suggests the following measures to strengthen EU-China ties -

1. Conclude an investment agreement as soon as possible;
2. Open negotiations on establishing an EU–China free trade agreement (FTA)
3. Use China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as a platform for further expanding bilateral trade and economic cooperation
4. Deepen EU–China cooperation on energy security and climate change
5. Focus on the opportunities offered by new breakthroughs in science, technology and innovation (STI)
6. Support further EU–China cooperation in the financial sector
7. Contribute to strengthening mechanisms of good global governance

Download EU-China Economic Relations to 2025

"Parched - Global Water Wars" - A National Geographic documentary now dubbed by RTHK in Cantonese

At the invitation of National Geographic TV, I gave a two-hour recorded interview at the Robert Bosch Stiftung Building in Berlin on 23 May, 2016. The topic was looming water conflicts between China and India, which shares the waters from the Tibetan Plateau. My interview was to be used, together with other interviews and filming on location, for a four-part National Geographic TV documentary Global Water Wars, to be released worldwide in spring, 2017. 

Attached are my Speaking Notes for my interview. 

Download AndrewLeung Interview with National Geographic - Speaking Notes  

The film, named "Parched - Global Water Wars" was aired by National Geographic on 4 April, 2017 across the United States, with over 86 million paid household subscribers. The film addresses water as an increasingly hotly-contested scare resource with geopolitical and humanitarian consequences. Illustrations featured in the documentary are (a) Syria involving the ISIS, (b) the West Bank involving Israel and the Palestinians (c) the Tibetan Plateau involving China and India. I appeared briefly in the last eighth of the film, on the Tibetan Plateau. 

The documentary has now been dubbed in Cantonese and aired as part of a Radio Television Hong Kong's series 危機潛藏 世界搶水大戰  (6 September 2016). (Scroll forward the time counter to 42:00 to view my appearances). 

What North Korea wants - a "grand bargain".

My live TV interview on RT of 4 September, 2017, argues that the new game-changing reality demands a "grand bargain". I pursued the same line of thought in my TV interviews the day before. 

My thinking very much tallies with what was suggested by Asia Society policy Institute President Kevin Rudd in his address to the Swedish Institute of International Affairs on 31st August. Rudd's "grand bargain" involves the U.S accepting -

"1. A formal peace treaty following the armistice which has been in operation since 1953;

2.  Formal diplomatic recognition of Pyongyang by the United States;

3.  External security guarantees for the future of the regime and the North Korean state, provided by the Chinese, the Americans and possibly the Russians;

4.  For the Chinese then to be able to assist North Korea to continue to reform and develop the North Korean economy;

5.  And possibly, and most problematically, a staged program for the eventual withdrawal step-by-step of U.S. forces from South Korea".

......., a possible stepping stone to this could be a variation of the mutual freeze option currently mooted by China: a freeze in U.S.-South Korean military exercises, in exchange for a freeze on North Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile testing programs".

North Korean "hydrogen bomb" test demands thinking outside the box

My exclusive live TV interview with RT on 3 September, 2017.

My 30-minute panel discussion on the same topic, the same day, with Gravitas, a leading TV news program with WION (World is One News), which is a premier, relatively young commercial TV channel in New Dehli. The video clip was not put on YouTube for copyright reasons. It is, however, available by downloading the large file with WeTransfer from this link.