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Trump the trouble-shooter - rhetoric and reality

Live TV interview on RT on 15 November. 

Understanding Mohammed bin Salman’s Saudi Arabia: History Or Tragedy In The Making?

One of the best pieces written on what is possibly the most cataclysmic palace coup in the history of Saudi Arabia is on Bloomberg Online of 18 November by Raj Bhala, Associate Dean for International and Comparative Law, inaugural Leo S. Brenneisen Distinguished Professor, University of Kansas, School of Law, and Senior Advisor to Dentons U.S. LLP. Click here

With Shakespearean elegance, Bhala dissects the unfolding epic drama, which promises to transform the richest and most powerful Kingdom in the Arab world into a modern state looking to the future. The implications are huge, not just for Saudi Arabia but for the rest of the Middle East and beyond. 

Both Saudi Arabia and Iran, key protagonists in this drama, are vital energy suppliers to China and are key anchors to President Xi's Belt and Road Initiative, part and parcel of the China Dream of reviving the glories of the ancient Silk Road. 

It's no wonder that speaking by telephone, President Xi told Saudi King Salman that "China’s determination to deepen strategic cooperation with Saudi Arabia will not waver, no matter how the international and regional situation changes." Click here

MEDays Forum 2017 - Tangier, Morocco

The 10th MEDays Forum organized by the Amadeus Institute, a leading African think-tank, was held in Tangier, Morocco from 8-11 November, 2017. The theme was "From Defiance to Challenges: The Era of Major Upheavals". Speakers included a host of ex-prime ministers, ex-ministers as well as prominent think-tank and business leaders from a number of African and other developing countries. 

I spoke at Business Plenary Session 2 BRICs-Africa: From Growth to Co-Emergence on the 9th, 2.30-3.45 p.m. The gist of my delivery is contained in my commentary Lions on the Move: Africa - a continent of challenges and opportunities on my website. 

I also spoke at Plenary Session 4 - Geopolitics - North Korea on the 11th, 3.45 - 4.30 p.m. The substance is drawn from my thoughts How to diffuse the North Korean Crisis posted on my website. 

 

How to diffuse the North Korean crisis

The plot is thickening. North Korea could be just months away from ability to strike the US homeland with a nuclear-armed ballistic missile, according to CIA chief Mike Pompeo Click here. Meanwhile, Pyongyang says a hydrogen bomb test over the Pacific should be taken literally. Click here

President Trump has warned that the US military is “locked and loaded”. Three US aircraft carrier strike groups are now operating in the Pacific within reach of North Korea. Click here

What transpires is escalation of an unstable spiral of mutual mistrust and escalating confrontation between North Korea and the US, driving the region, and probably the world, to nuclear Armageddon.

What has not been grasped is what drives the supposedly mad Kim to such lengths. It is evident that taking a leaf out of Chairman Mao’s book (against former USSR aggression), Kim is hell-bent to acquire a credible nuclear insurance policy to ensure survival against perceived continual US hidden agenda of regime change.

A May 2017 paper for the John L Thornton China Center, Brookings Institution, The Korean Nuclear Issue: Past, Present and Future – A Chinese Perspective by Madam Fu Ying, chairperson of China's Foreign Affairs Committee of the National People’s Congress, is instructive. After rounds of fruitless Six-Party talks, Kim no longer trusts words of assurances from the United States, especially from a capricious Donald Trump.

There is now increasing US talk of a military option. However, a preemptive strike will trigger an immediate catastrophe, beginning with Seoul, which is easy cannon fodder for thousands of North Korean heavy artillery just across the border. Subsequent escalation, which is likely, will pull the major military powers, including China and Russia, into the fray. Even World War III cannot be ruled out. 

Even a land-based decapitation exercise inside North Korea would lead to uncontrollable consequences. It would result in subsequent deployment of substantial numbers of US and South Korean troops inside North Korea to secure the nuclear arsenal and to control any consequential upheaval. In the circumstances, China and Russia are unlikely to sit tight watching the geopolitical landscape in the Korean Peninsula dramatically change to their disadvantage. 

Yes, China has economic levers to bear on North Korea. But causing a massive humanitarian crisis at China's doorstep is not an appealing option. Nor would China want military unification of the Peninsula on American terms. Let's not forget that Russia has also quietly been supplying much needed oil to North Korea through Singapore. Click here

The Economist urges all parties to keep calm to avoid risks of a nuclear war, while proposing more sanctions to contain North Korea. Sadly, sanctions have not worked. The clock is ticking. 

However, if the United States genuinely gives up a hidden agenda of regime change and concentrates only on de-nuclearization, the North Korean crisis may not be insoluble. Click here

If better understanding could be reached following President Trump’s forthcoming visit to Beijing, China may well be able to broker a deal with Kim behind the scene. The object is a formal, open, bilateral US-North Korea Non-Aggression Treaty, backed by an immediate program of verifiable de-escalation on both sides. This is to be predicated on Kim freezing further efforts to develop inter-continental ballistic missiles capable of reaching the US homeland in exchange for easing of sanctions and economic assistance. Click here

All parties, including the US, China and South Korea, should then help with investments to normalize, the nation.

Let's not forget that the Viet Cong regime wasn't toppled by war. What has turned Vietnam into an American ally is economics. Click here

Ruble-yuan trade between Russia & China makes dollar odd man out

I was quoted on RT Business News dated 3 November, 2017. Thanks to the greenback's predominance in the overall financial sector, dedollarization is not going to happen any time soon. But China is the world's largest trading nation and the largest energy customer.  Wth more trade and energy deals denominated in the Chinese yuan in coming years, dependence on the dollar is likely to become more attenuated.