(My quarterly Newsletter goes out to some 7,000 professional contacts worldwide. The following is the May 2018 issue. Back numbers may be accessed under What's New on this website.)
Greetings! Notwithstanding appearances, the jigsaw of President Trump's anti-China moves is becoming clear. A massive trade war targets "Made in China 2025", China's blueprint for technological advancement. A Taiwan Travel Act threatens China's One China Policy. Rallying Japan, Australia and India, a US-led loosely-defined QUAD, including military exercises and alternative regional infrastructural projects, pushes back against China's growing gravitas including the Belt and Road Initiative. On the cards are tightening US visa requirements for Chinese students and reviving the US-led Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) with new trade rules excluding China. Between these two Great Powers, nothing less than a tussle for regional, if not global, dominance is at stake. It may well be a smokeless fight but collateral damage ensues nonetheless.
Added to uncertain talks with North Korea and a smothering Syria, one can be forgiven for getting a little anxious. Hopefully the following may offer some perspective.
China's Rise
China Reinvents Itself but is unlikely to displace American leadership (An in-depth analysis of China's latest economic and technological prowess and why China is not to lead the world anytime soon)
Amazing China (A CGTN documentary)
China's politics
Move to abolish Xi's term limit - more is at stake than power grab (An in-depth analysis)
Geopolitics
Misreading President Xi's New Power risks falling into the Thucydides Trap (Feature article in The Global Analyst, a leading business journal in India). A re-written shorter version appears as an Op-ed Sinophobia should not define America's China Policy in the South China Morning Post.
How a Sino-US relationship reset would help make America great again (Op-ed in the South China Morning Post) This was condensed from a fuller analysis Why fixating on countering China’s Rise won’t keep America safer and more prosperous
US Stratcom Commander warns Russia and China of retaliatory annihilation (Live radio interview with Radio Sputnik of Moscow)
How 5-S holistic harmonization with China’s global connectivity including Belt and Road may drive a New Era of Common Destiny with America (A PowerPoint presentation merging 5-S management principles with international relations)
Trade war
How China may respond to a full US trade war (An in-depth analysis)
Does free trade have a future with Donald Trump's tariff war? (Inside Story live TV panel discussion on Aljazeera English Channel)
Trump's trade tariffs on steel and aluminum herald global trade war? (Live TV interview with RT)
North Korea
Prospects for denuclearizing North Korea (Live TV interview with RT)
Why North Korea chooses to talk now? (Live TV interview with RT)
Why US excludes China and Russia in the 20-nation talks in Canada on North Korea? (Live TV interview with RT)
Middle East
Possible mid-term election motive for Trump's missile attack at Syria (TV interview with RT)
A snapshot of the unsettling dynamics of the Israeli-Palestinian situation (Excerpt of speech at a European Council for Foreign Relations conference)
China's outlook
With the rise of protectionism, would the economy be in trouble in China and rest of Asia in 2018? (A full-length PowerPoint presentation)
What can we expect in China in 2018? (Resume of a McKinsey analysis)
China in 2018: What It Will Mean for the Global Economy? (Feature article in The Global Analyst, an Indian business journal)
Should China Fear US Tax Reform? Not Really (A research note by Nataxis, a French bank)
China business
China's "OMO" "New Retail" is set to revolutionize retail businesses across the globe (Two eye-opening videos)
Eversheds Sutherland's Investment Laws in Key Belt and Road Countries, 2018 (A compendium of diverse laws)
HNA acquires Glencore's global storage and logistics network for oil commodities (A Toutiao 今日头条 article (in Chinese))
Hong Kong
Hong Kong to legislate National Anthem law (Live TV interview on TRT World, based in Istanbul)
Hong Kong's By-election for four vacated LegCo Seats (Live TV interview with Aljazeera English Channel)
My coming extended visit to London
I will be away from Hong Kong from 3 May to 8 August on an extended visit to London. During 19-28 July, I will be enjoying a family summer holiday around Pula, Croatia. You are welcome to visit me in London or Croatia for lunch, tea, or dinner, if this suits your itinerary or fancy.
Cheer up and chill out
A repertoire of inspirational music, videos, songs and words, There is also a collection in Chinese.
Cross-border M & A propositions
You are welcome to send me propositions on a no-commitment basis initially.
Separately, you are welcome to reach out to my son Terence, a Cambridge-educated Prince Phillip Scholar and UK-qualified lawyer-turned-banker. He has over ten years M & A experience in London with Allen & Overy, Deutsche Bank, and Houlihan Lokey. He is now based in Abu Dhabi working on private equity with the Marya Group. His personal email address is [email protected]
Consultation services
Please email me at [email protected] or text my Hong Kong mobile +852 98198987. I can also be reached on Skype at andrew.k.p.leung, LinkedIn at andrewleunginternational, Whatsapp at (852) 98198987, WeChat at Andrewkpleung, Facebook at andrewkinpongleung, and Twitter at @Andrewkpleung
Speaking and lecturing invitations
I am receptive to invitations or proposals for speaking engagements, visiting lectures and tailor-made electives as a visiting/adjunct professor.
Business networking and speaking platform in Hong Kong
As an Advisor to the Denmark-based Executives' Global Network Hong Kong, I welcome your suggestion of a suitable speaker for an EGN event in Hong Kong. This will be entirely at our own cost with acknowledgement of your support, provided that we are not asked to cover any speaking fee, travel or accommodation expenses.
RSS feed and weblinks
My postings are regularly uploaded under my three blogs CHINAwatch, Publications and What is New on www.andrewleunginternationalconsultants.com A collection of leading China media and research sites can be found under China Links.
Please feel free to save my website on your computer, laptop, tablet, Blackberry, iPhone or iPad as a reference resource. If you wish instant access as soon as my postings appear, just click on “Subscribe to this blog’s feed” under RSS Feed on top of the right-hand column of each blog. Select the appropriate Google feed option. It is free of charge.
This newsletter is uploaded to my website here. You may save it for reference or reading at leisure and to share it on Facebook, LinkedIn, Whatsapp, Twitter or other social media devices.
Courtesies
I look forward to your guidance, advice, comments, suggestions, and criticisms. You may share the above contents with colleagues or friends. You are also welcome to publish any of them with full attribution.
If you think that I may add value to your endeavours in any way, please let me know how I may help. If for any reason you do not wish to receive my emails, just ask me to delete your name from my databank permanently.
Best personal regards,
Andrew K.P. Leung, SBS, FRSA
International and Independent China Strategist
www.andrewleunginternationalconsultants.com
Positions
Chairman and CEO, Andrew Leung International Consultants and Investments Limited (Founded in London, re-incorporated in Hong Kong)
China Futures Fellow, Berkshire Publishing Group, Massachusetts,USA (2011-13) Brain Trust member, The Evian Group (global think-tank), Lausanne, Switzerland
Gerson Lehrman Group (Global Experts) Council Member International Expert, Reuters Insight Community of Experts, Thomson Reuters
Senior Analyst, Wikistrat, a cloud-sourced global strategic consultancy based in Washington D.C.
Senior Consultant, MEC International (a UK-based global strategic energy consultancy)
Distinguished Contributor, Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance (ATCA) (global think-tank) Fellow of the Royal Society for the Encouragement of Arts, Manufactures and Commerce (FRSA)
Elected Member, Royal Society for Asian Affairs
Think-tank Research Fellow, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai Campus, PRC (14.4.2017-13.4.2020)
Advisory Board member, The e-Centre, European Centre for e-Commerce and Internet Law, Vienna
Honorary Adviser, International Institute of Management (IIM)
Advisory Board member, The Global Analyst, India
Honorary President, China Hong Kong Economic and Trading International Association (from 28 March, 2016)
Download A brief introduction to the China-Hong Kong Economic and Trading International Association
Global Commercial Agent, Changsha City, China
Hong Kong Advisory Board member, Denmark-based Executive Global Network (EGN)
Visiting Professor, London Metropolitan University Business School
Governing Council Member, King’s College London, UK (2004-2010) Advisory Board member, China Policy Institute, Nottingham University, UK (2005 -2010)
Visiting Professor, Sun Yat-sen University Business School, China (2005-10)
Founding Chairman, China Group, Institute of Directors City Branch, London, UK (2006-2010)
Vice Chairman, 48 Group Club, UK (2008-2010)
Committee Member of RSA, London Region, UK (2006-2010)
Included in UK's Who's Who since 2002
Awarded the Silver Bauhinia Star (SBS) in the July 2005 Hong Kong Honours List
