What's New

Trump's North Korean Summit on/off

 Live TV interview on RT on 25 May, 2018

How China and Germany could cooperate on salvaging the Iran nuclear deal?

One-one-one interview with Radio Sputnik of Moscow on 24 May 2018 in relation to German Chancellor Angela Merkel's visit to Beijing. 

Building the Future - how science and technology links the future of Hong Kong to the mainland

Editor Jack Leeming illustrates the above development with a series of interviews of people in the know in this May edition of Naturejobs, a subsidiary of the renowned science journal NATURE. I was one of the interviewees. 

Download Building the Future, Naturejobs

 

What a smart city blueprint would look like - a Hong Kong example

An |"infographic" summary of the  South China Morning Post shows in concrete terms how Hong Kong could become a smart city of the future. The summary is based on recommendations of a government-commissioned Hong Kong Smart City Blueprint Consultancy Study using the Smart City Boyd Cohen model comprising six themes: Economy, Government, People, Living, Environment, and Mobility. 

A Multilateral and Strategic Response to International Predatory Economic Practices

The US Senate Committee on Foreign Relations conducted a hearing on 9 May on the above subject. It serves to flag up what has gone wrong in America's trade relations in recent decades characterized by what the Committee considers "predatory practices" at the expense of US economic interests and even national security. These include forced intellectual property transfers, trade espionage, cyber security, "unfair" state subsidies, acquisition of US strategic assets, and lack of reciprocity.

These perceived transgressions are put in the context of China's new geopolitical ambitions, including the Belt and Road Initiative, and the Make in China 2025 blueprint. All in all, the international order and American interests underpinned by US leadership is perceived to be under threat, demanding robust defensive and offensive response. The hearing informs much of America's perceived grievances highlighted in the looming trade war against China.

Witnesses for the hearing include Matthew Goodman, Simon Chair in Political Economy of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Dr Robert Atkinson, President, Information Technology and innovation Foundation. Michael Wessel, Commissioner, US-China Economic and Security Commission, and Ms Kimberly Glas, Executive Director, The Blue Green Alliance, Washington D.C. 

How Iran has been gaining in the Levant and how changing dynamics may reverse its fortune

An insightful analysis dated May 2018 by Jonathan Paris, a Middle East consultant and strategist, on Fathom a blog for the Britain Israel Communications and Research Center (BICOM) throws light on how Iran has quietly been gaining influence in the Levant at the expense of America's focus on defeating Iran's enemies i.e. Saddam’s Iraq, the Taliban, and, most recently, ISIS. However, hubris, domestic discontent, and changing American priorities are beginning to reverse Iran's fortune. 

Together with my earlier posting on A snapshot of the unsettling dynamics of the Israeli-Palestinian situation, this article is an added  chapter on understanding the complex dynamics defining the shape of the Middle East in the coming decades. 

Greening the Belt and Road Initiative

According to a May 2018 report of the International Renewable Energy Agency headquartered in Abu Dhabi, 43% of the world's renewable energy jobs are in China. These include 65% of global solar PV jobs, 44% of wind energy jobs, and 21% of hydro power jobs. Download IRENA_RE_Jobs_Annual_Review_2018

China's green energy capacity underpins the attainment of President's Xi's dream of a "Beautiful China", part and parcel of the "China Dream" of national renaissance in coming decades. It also supports the clarion call of greening China's global Belt and Road Initiative. 

According to a WWF/HSBC report Greening the Belt and Road Initiative of January 2018, hydro-electric power accounts for 22% of all BRI projects, ahead of rail infrastructure (19%), manufacturing (13%), coal (12%), miscellaneous (12%), ports (8%), roads (7%) and other energy resources (7%). Three-quarters are in power and transport infrastructure, though still devoid of solar PV or wind power projects. The investment trend seems to shift towards special economic zones, manufacturing and urban infrastructure development. Hence, the BRI has huge potential to help realize the UN Sustainable Development Goals, including Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure, Sustainable Cities and Communities, Clean Water and Sanitation, Climate Action, Life on Land and Life below Water. 

Download WWF-HSBC Repaort - Greening-the-belt-and-road-initiative

A concurrent study Greening the Belt and Road by Renmin University in collaboration with the City of London Corporation, Green Finance Initiative, among others, proposes wider partnership with multilateral development banks, more room given to private capital, better project debt management, and more effective green finance governance covering conservation, bio-system adaptation, 
carbon capture and storage, energy efficiency, including co-generation, and smart grids, pollution control, prevention, and treatment, green buildings, green products and materials, renewable energies, sustainable agriculture and forestry, sustainable transport infrastructure including urban rail, metro, electric and hybrid vehicles, recycling, waste management, as well as water efficiency and wastewater treatment. 

Download Renmin Universityb et al Greening-the-Belt-and-Road

 

 

Top 10 largest economies in 2050 according to PricewaterhouseCoopers

According to a YouTube presentation , PriceWaterhouseCoopers predicts that by 2050, the world's top 10 largest economies by GDP in nominal terms (denominated in trillion US dollars) will be as follows -

• No. 1 - China (50)
• No. 2 - USA (34)
• No. 3 - India (28)
• No. 4 - Indonesia (7.3)
• No. 5 - Japan (6.8)
• No. 6 - Brazil (6.5)
• No. 7 - Germany (6.1)
• No. 8 - Mexico (5.6)
• No. 9 - United Kingdom (5.4)
• No.10 - Russia (5.1) 

This forecast means that by 2050, 

• China's economy will be almost 1.5 times larger than the United States as number 2 and almost 10 times the UK as number 9.
• China plus India's will be larger than the rest of the top ten economies combined. 
• The size of Indonesia's economy will leapfrog from the 16th position today to the 4th, while Mexico will jump from the 15th to the 8th.
• China with the rest of the developing top ten will be 86% larger than the Western top ten combined (excluding Russia). 

These numbers suggest that dynamics are already set in motion shaping a tectonic shift of world power by mid-century.