(My quarterly Newsletter goes out to some 8,000 professional contacts worldwide. The following is my September 2019 issue. Back numbers may be accessed under What's New on this website)
Greetings!
Hong Kong has had a long and fiery summer. Reminiscent of the "butterfly effect", triggered by a Taiwan murder case, an extradition bill intended to prevent Hong Kong from becoming a haven for criminal fugitives has led to socio-political conflagration. The bill's extension to cover extradition to Mainland China ignited a powder keg of pent-up frustrations. These include upward hopelessness of the younger generation, anger with One Country Two Systems increasingly tilting towards One Country, and the government's perceived haughty nonchalance. While the vast majority of protesters are peaceful, diehard militants, apparently aided and abetted by behind-the-scene politicians and other backers, are holding the city's law and order to ransom.
Preceded by peaceful protests, the same real-time dramas of violent police-confrontation by black-clad, gas-masked militants unfold before a tired and worried city every weekend evening. Caches of high-explosives were uncovered. Petrol bombs, handy catapults and sharp metal objects are deployed. The police responds with tear gas, beanbag rounds, and arrests. Hong Kong's parliament chamber was ransacked. The national emblem of Beijing's representative office was defaced. A hoisted national flag was thrown into the harbour. Police stations and staff quarters were attacked while police relatives and kids are targeted for harassment. Hong Kong's international airport was obstructed to a halt. Slogans of "Liberate Hong Kong" and "Revolution of Our Times" appear in banners or sprayed on buildings. Ten Hong Kong people were recently caught displaying these banners in Tibet. A sense of anarchy and ulterior motives prevails.
Meanwhile, protesters remain insistent on their "Five Demands": formal "withdrawal" of the now officially-abandoned and declared "dead" extradition bill, setting up an independent commission of enquiry to look into alleged police brutality, non-application of the crime of "Riot", freeing all arrested protesters, and universal suffrage unconstrained by Hong Kong's Basic Law. The government has refused to capitulate to these demands.
Conspiracy rumours abound. References to a "color revolution" and a Hong Kong-styled "Tiananmen Square" are becoming more frequent. The People's Liberation Army in Hong Kong's garrison and across the border are on high alert. One Country Two Systems appears on the brink of being torn apart.
As I write, the Hong Kong situation remains fluid. This is compounded by uncertain trade and geopolitical rivalry between China and the United States. The G7 has affirmed the validity of the UK-China Joint Declaration on One Country Two Systems, cautioning against violence on both sides.
Amid the smoke and mirrors, the following may hopefully offer some fresh perspective.
Hong Kong
Is a lull in violence in Hong Kong's protests a turning point for the better or for worse? (Live TV interview with CNA (Channel News Asia, Singapore)
特朗普：習近平應與香港⽰威者會⾯ - 「司⾺昭之⼼」 (A BBC Chinese Online article)
China’s authorities can allay Hong Kong’s worst fears by addressing its frustrated democracy dreams (Op-ed in South China Morning Post)
Cathay Pacific high-level reshuffle and Hong Kong protests impact on economy (Live interview with Talking Business on BBC World News)
Mayhem in Hong Kong International Airport - what can the UK government do? (Live interview with LBC (London Broadcasting Company) Radio)
Significance of US high-level meetings with Hong Kong's star activist Joshua Wong (Live interview on Indus News (Pakistan))
Beijing warns of "color revolution" hallmarks in Hong Kong protests (Live interview with TRT (Turkey))
Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam meets the press on "dangerous situation" (Live interview with BBC Newsday)
Another phase of Hong Kong's protests (Live interview with TRT (Turkey))
What's behind Beijing's press briefing on Hong Kong (Live interviews with ABC (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) Radio)
Now that Beijing has spoken, what next for the Hong Kong protests? (Live interviews with ABC (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) Radio and PressTV)
Another day (28th) of violent protests spreading to several districts on Hong Kong island (Live interview with RT, Russia)
Night of triad-infested protests in Hong Kong's Yuen Long rural areas (Live TV interview on BBC World News)
Crunch time for Beijing to stop the breakdown of law and order in Hong Kong? (Live interview with PressTV)
The Heat: Hong Kong protests with CGTN America, Washington D.C. (Live TV panel discussion on CGTN America, Washington D.C.)
BBC World News interview on storming of HK's legislative council (Live TV interview on BBC World News)
What now, after Carrie Lam declared the extradition bill "dead"? (Live interview on ABC News Radio Sydney)
The ins and outs of the storming of Hong Kong's Legislative Council (Live radio interview on BBC The World Tonight and live TV interview on The Brief, ANews TV Channel. Turkey)
Real-time storming by protestors of the Hong Kong Legislative Council (Live TV interviews with BBC News and Sky News)
Hong Kong extradition issue elevated to G20? (Live TV interview with CNA (Channel News Asia), Singapore)
Hong Kong extradition bill suspended - what now? (Two live TV interviews on Aljazeera English Channel and a synopsis of the bill's background and broader implications)
Hong Kong protests - BBC World News, ABC (Australia), and TRT (Turkey) live interviews (Earlier protests on 12-13 June)
Hong Kong massive protest march against extradition bill (Live radio interview with BBC Newshour on 9 June)
Trade war
Trump tweet hints at desire to capitalize on HK's protests in trade talks (Live interview with TRT (Turkey))
Hong Kong's protests against Mainland extradition -dynamics and bigger picture with the US (A China Debate synopsis)
Does Trump hold all the cards against China? (An in-depth analysis)
Has the US overplayed its hand on trade? (Op-ed in Project Syndicate)
China vows to respond with firm resolve if U.S. insists on escalating trade tensions (Live interview with PressTV)
Trump and Xi negotiate trade war ceasefire at G20 in Osaka (Live TV interview with RT)
Trumps threatens more tariffs if President Xi doesn't show up at G20 (Live TV interview with RT)
China rebuffs Trump’s claim about impact of US tariffs (Live interview with Press TV)
US-China trade talks game of chicken- who's going to get hurt more? (Live interview with RT)
Why the US-China trade war broke down and what's behind it all? (2-part TV interview with Hong Kong International Business Channel)
Trump to China: Deal now or face far worse terms (Live interview with Press TV)
Trump's last minute tariff threat - tactic or desire to extract a further ounce of flesh from China? (Live interview with RT)
Huawei - Technology War
Why does the US attack Huawei on all fronts? (Press TV commentary)
Banning Google applications, how much this will hurt Huawei? (Live TV interview with TRT)
Digital Cold War? How Beijing's Striking Back Against US Crackdown on Huawei (Op-ed in Sputnik News)
Reality check on China’s push for self-reliance in semi-conductor industry (A South China Morning Post article)
How the US chooses to lose the race on 5G (An in-depth analysis)
US pushback against China intensifies on more fronts (Live interview on RT)
US trade talk takes aim at "Made in China 2025" (An in-depth analysis)
What is the US-China trade war really about? (Backchat on Radio Hong Kong)
World Order
China connects the world: Creation of a Sino-centric or more inclusive world order? (A PowerPoint presentation to British Business Association of Macao)
America Must Prepare for the Coming Chinese Empire (National Interest article of 17 June 2019 by Robert Kaplan)
Kiron Skinner's stretched attempt to find a "Trump Doctrine" (An in-depth analysis)
The Value of Global China - how multilateralism may tip the balance (A McKinsey Global Institute analysis)
Belt and Road
China’s Belt and Road Initiative - Rationale, Development, Risks, Opportunities, Implications and Way Forward (PowerPoint presentation to the French Chamber of Commerce, Hong Kong)
Europe continues to welcome Chinese investment in its ports, despite US concerns (Op-ed in South China Morning Post)
Second Belt and Road Summit in Beijing addresses fears of critics (Live interview with TRT )
Why Beijing repeated at the Belt and Road Summit "concessions" in US trade talk (TV interview with BBC World)
Belt and Road reaches an inflexion point to address a mounting backlash of concerns (Backchat on Radio Hong Kong)
Dominance or development? What’s at the end of China’s New Silk Road? (A South China Morning Post exclusive)
North Korea
North Korea: US speaks of talks while ramping up hostility (Telephone interview with Press TV)
US impounds North Korean cargo ship - what does this signify? ( Live TV interview with Press TV)
North Korea wants Pompeo removed from nuclear talks (Live interview with Press TV)
Military
Why China says "No" to US arms control idea after US-Russian row over Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty (Live panel discussion on Press TV)
US massive arms sale to Taiwan squares with One-China policy? (Live TV interviews with RT and Press TV)
Why US steps up weapon sales to Taiwan? Live interview with Press TV)
Japan restricts exports of chip, smartphone displays to S Korea (Live interview with Press TV)
More US warships challenging China's South China Sea claims (Live interview with Press TV)
Kashmir, Hong Kong's status on T-shirts and Macao's future
China ‘can’t just stay out’ of Kashmir dispute, will play peacemaker (Commentary on RT Question More and Live TV interview on Indus News, Pakistan)
India's sudden cancellation of Kashmir's special status (Live TV panel discussion on Indus News, Pakistan, and commentary on RT Question More)
Freudian slip over Hong Kong's "national" status on designer T-shirts? (Interview with RT)
Macau could retain ‘second system’ status past 2049 (Macao Daily Times article)
Economy and long-term trajectory
OECD Economic Surveys - China : Executive Summary April 2019 (A pulse-taking)
China: Learning from mistakes and deficiencies (Feature article in The Global Analyst)
To end the trade war and meet its centenary goals, China must embrace soft power and become more likeable (Op-ed in South China Morning Post)
Sustainable Development
Financial Inclusion (Live panel discussion on Backchat, Radio Hong Kong)
Cheer up and chill out
A repertoire of inspirational music, videos, songs and words. There is also a collection in Chinese.
Cross-border M & A propositions
You are welcome to send me propositions on a no-commitment basis initially.
Separately, you are welcome to reach out to my son Terence, a Cambridge-educated Prince Phillip Scholar and UK-qualified lawyer-turned-banker. He has over ten years M & A experience in London with Allen & Overy, Deutsche Bank, and Houlihan Lokey. He has been based in Abu Dhabi working on private equity for the past two years. He has now returned to the financial services sector in London. His personal email address is [email protected]
Consultation services
Please email me at [email protected] or text my Hong Kong mobile +852 98198987. I can also be reached on Skype at andrew.k.p.leung, LinkedIn at andrewleunginternational, Whatsapp at (852) 98198987, WeChat at Andrewkpleung, Facebook at andrewkinpongleung, and Twitter at @Andrewkpleung
Speaking and lecturing invitations
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Business networking and speaking platform in Hong Kong
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Best personal regards,
Andrew K.P. Leung, SBS, FRSA
International and Independent China Strategist
www.andrewleunginternationalconsultants.com
Positions
Chairman and CEO, Andrew Leung International Consultants and Investments Limited
(Founded in London, now re-incorporated in Hong Kong; name changed from Andrew Leung International Consultants Limited as from 10 July, 2017)
China Futures Fellow, Berkshire Publishing Group, Massachusetts, USA (2011-13)
Brain Trust member, The Evian Group (global think-tank), Lausanne, Switzerland
Brain Trust member, The Evian Group (global think-tank), Lausanne, Switzerland
Gerson Lehrman Group (Global Experts) Council Member
International Expert, Reuters Insight Community of Experts, Thomson Reuters
International Expert, Reuters Insight Community of Experts, Thomson Reuters
Senior Analyst, Wikistrat , a cloud-sourced global strategic consultancy based in Washington D.C.
Senior Consultant, MEC International (a UK-based global strategic energy consultancy)
Distinguished Contributor, Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance (ATCA) (global think-tank)
Professor of Practice, Hong Kong Institute of Education for Sustainable Development (2018-20)
Certified Sustainable Development Planner, World Institute of Sustainable Development Planners
Fellow of the Royal Society for the Encouragement of Arts, Manufactures and Commerce (FRSA)Elected Member, Royal Society for Asian Affairs
Think-tank Research Fellow, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai Campus, PRC (14.4.2017-13.4.2020)
Advisory Board member, The e-Centre , European Centre for e-Commerce and Internet Law, Vienna
Honorary Adviser, International Institute of Management (IIM)
Advisory Board member, The Global Analyst, India
Honorary President, China Hong Kong Economic and Trading International Association (from 28 March, 2016)
Global Commercial Agent, Changsha City, China
Hong Kong Advisory Board member, Denmark-based Executive Global Network (EGN)
Visiting Professor, London Metropolitan University Business School
Governing Council Member, King’s College London, UK (2004-2010)
Advisory Board member, China Policy Institute, Nottingham University, UK (2005 -2010)
Advisory Board member, China Policy Institute, Nottingham University, UK (2005 -2010)
Visiting Professor, Sun Yat-sen University Business School, China (2005-10)
Founding Chairman, China Group, Institute of Directors City Branch, London, UK (2006-2010)
Vice Chairman, 48 Group Club, UK (2008-2010)
Committee Member of RSA, London Region, UK (2006-2010)
Included in UK's Who's Who since 2002
Awarded the Silver Bauhinia Star (SBS) in the July 2005 Hong Kong Honours List
Founding Chairman, China Group, Institute of Directors City Branch, London, UK (2006-2010)
Vice Chairman, 48 Group Club, UK (2008-2010)
Committee Member of RSA, London Region, UK (2006-2010)
Included in UK's Who's Who since 2002
Awarded the Silver Bauhinia Star (SBS) in the July 2005 Hong Kong Honours List
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