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February 23, 2024

2024: Year of Living Dangerously

A PowerPoint presentation to the Hong Kong EGN Chairmen Group on 22 February 2024. Download 2024 - Year of Living Dangerously

Posted at 01:29 PM in Africa, Asia, BRICS, China Business, China's politics, China's Rise, Cities, Climate Change , Consumption, Current Affairs, Defense, Democracy, Denuclearization, Development_, e-Commerce, Economics, Economy, Emerging Economies, Energy, Ethics, EU, Eurasia, Europe, Finance, Geopolitics, Globalization, Healthcare, Hong Kong, Innovation, Investment , Manufacturing , Middle Class, Middle East, Military, North Korea, Philosophy, Politics, Population, Regional development, Russia, South China Sea, Southeast Asia, Taiwan, Technology, Terrorism , Turkey, United States, Urbanization, Warfare, World | | Comments (0)

January 29, 2024

Megatrends To 2050: Geopolitical Fragmentation To Accelerate, Raising Global Risks

Megatrends to 2050 is a forecast, Global Country Risks, dated 20 June 2023 by BMI, a FitchSolutions Company. 

The following are some salient excerpts  -

(a) The world order will become increasingly multipolar over the coming three decades, as geopolitical influence disperses away from the US and emerging economies seek to increase their power in tandem with their economic and demographic weigh. 

(b) Our GDP forecasts for 2050 envisage China and the US being by far the biggest economies with nominal GDPs of USD52.5trn and USD42.9trn respectively, far ahead of third-ranked India (USD16.3trn). 

(c) Despite a probable shift towards geopolitical ‘bifurcation’ in the northern hemisphere, we see scope for an additional bloc or loose grouping centred around the ‘Global South’, with India, Indonesia, South Africa, Nigeria and Brazil becoming increasingly prominent on the world stage.

(d) A substantial increase in great power tensions would accelerate the fragmentation of the international system, as each great power would seek to build their own, largely exclusive, sphere of influence and economic linkages between rival powers would rapidly be unwound.

(e) Geopolitical considerations will increasingly supersede economic ones for governments and businesses in the post-Covid, post-Ukraine war international system. 

(f) As the world becomes more multipolar, and as more economies acquire greater influence, the risk of major power conflict will increase.

(g) We believe that any hypothetical conflict between the US and China could be a defining moment for the international system. At the same time, we emphasise that great power conflict is by no means inevitable

(h) Against this backdrop, we also anticipate that more markets will acquire nuclear weapons, or at least the ability to develop them at short notice. 

(i) The world order will also become more fluid over the coming decade or two, as a certain degree of ‘tactical’ shifting may take place by medium-sized markets seeking to maximise their ‘independence’

(j) For the foreseeable future, more markets will be at risk of becoming subsumed in ‘proxy’ conflicts between the major powers. 

(k) We anticipate that multiple markets around the world, especially larger ones, will experience greater decentralisation pressures over the coming decades. In some cases, decentralisation will be a precursor to formal separatism, especially where separate cultural identities are the main drivers of autonomism.

(l) The EU is also analogous to some of these markets, and we anticipate continued tensions there between those that favour greater centralisation under Brussels and those that favour greater devolution of power back to nation states. These dynamics could be tested again if the continent experiences a similar crisis to that in the eurozone in 2010-2012.

(m) We believe that Russia is one of the most likely to experience greater autonomist or separatist pressures, as a long-term consequence of the war in Ukraine. Anecdotal reports suggest that Russia’s ethnic minorities have experienced disproportionately high casualties in the war, which may increase their sense of resentment towards Moscow. We also anticipate that Russia will emerge from the conflict substantially weaker militarily and economically poorer. This suggests that Moscow will have reduced ability to subsidise or militarily suppress potentially rebellious regions.

(n) We anticipate that urbanisation will continue in Emerging Markets, with the UN forecasting that the world’s urban population will rise from 55% of the global total in 2018 to 68% by 2050, with the bulk of this increase taking place in Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. With more people living in cities, social unrest and conflicts could lead to urban warfare. However, urbanisation is not necessarily irreversible.

(o) Despite the fact that globalisation has reached a plateau, we believe that inter-connectedness between cities spanning different markets and continents will be a key factor upholding some form of globalism.

(p) Some "known unkowns" - 

  • Considerable question marks surround Russia’s ability to remain a major world power.
  • It is unclear if the Communist Party of China (CPC) can continue to hold a monopoly of power in Mainland China all the way out to 2050. 
  • The EU could itself face centrifugal tendencies as a result of rising nationalism, which could be exacerbated by another financial crisis.
  • The US has become increasingly polarised, raising the possibility that it, too, could face internal upheaval that could force it to turn even more inward.

The above are by no means iconoclastic, mostly following current happenings. However, these predictions are dated June 2023, before the tide turned over the Ukraine War and the new Israel-Hamas crisis.

With the US and EU running short on financial, ammuntion, and political support for Ukraine, Russia remains resilient and may finally settle for a Ukraine deal in its favour, particularly in the event of Trump's return to the White House. This would tilt the global geopolitical balance against the Western camp. 

At the same time, across the Middle East, the wider Global South, and various Western countries, the Gaza war is increasingly challenging the legitimacy of Israel's disproportionate reprisals and America's continuing support, regardless of Houhti's attack on selected civilian shipping in the Red Sea. In the circumstances, China and Russia are likely to benefit geopolitically as a result. How the Israel-Hamas War Is Tilting the Global Power Balance in Favor of Russia, China.

The predictions do not seem to take sufficient account of China's deeply-imbedded centrality in the global supply and value chain, US-led de-coupling or de-risking notwithstanding. By 2018, China has become a bigger trading partner for 128 of 190 countries than the US, according to the Lowy Institute. Seven of the world's top ten busiest container ports are in China (including Hong Kong). China is also the world’s largest manufacturer. Most of the world's consumer products, whether marked "Made in China" have incorporated China's inputs in terms of minerals and other materials, technical components, assembly or logistics.This centrality is likley to gain further momentum with the world's largest trading bloc, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnerswhip (RCEP) comprising ASEAN and its main trading partners including China, accounting for a third of global GDP and a third of the world's population. Additionally,  China's ubiquitous Belt and Road Initiative, linking the world with overland and maritime infrastructure, has now been rejigged to become more indebtedness-and-ecology sensitive, as well as more open and inclusive of local stakeholders. 

Neither have the predictions taken enough account of China's lead in 37 out of 44 cutting-edge technologies, according to ASPI's March 2023 Critical Techoilogy Tracker). These include certain sectors in Artificial Intelligence, quantum computing and Internet of Things (IoT) which are defining how people live, how businesses are conducted, and how national powers are measured in the 21st century. This lead is likely to endure, thanks to China's vast technological manpower pool. By 2025 Chinese universities will be producing more than 77,000 STEM PhDs per year compared to approximately 40,000 in the United States. Excluding international students, Chinese STEM PhD graduates would outnumber their U.S. counterparts more than three-to-one, according to George Town University's CSET (Center for Security and Emerging Technology). 

China's current gloal gravitas is reflected in an analysis Which country has the most influence in the world? dated 29 January 2024 by the Red Team Analysis Society, a global geopolitical consultancy and think tank. 

Last but not least, the predictions show insufficient recognition that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been evolving and become very adaptive in recent decades. Under its tutelage, the lives of 1.4 billion Chinese people have been dramatically transformed. Globally, it has become one of the governments most trusted and supported by its people, muliple ranks above many Western democracies including the United States, according to recent research conducted by the Harvard Kennedy School, 2023 Edelman Trust Barometer, and IPSOS Global Happiness 2023 Report. Current demographic, economic, and geopolitical headwinds notwithstanding, it is still too soon to conclude that China will never overtake the United States as the largest economy. 

Posted at 08:13 PM in Africa, Asia, Banking, BRICS, China Business, China's politics, China's Rise, Cities, Climate Change , Currencies, Current Affairs, Defense, Democracy, Denuclearization, Development_, e-Commerce, Economics, Economy, Emerging Economies, Energy, Ethics, EU, Eurasia, Europe, Finance, Food and Water Security, Future, Gas, Geopolitics, Globalization, Hong Kong, Innovation, Investment , Japan, Manufacturing , Middle Class, Middle East, Military, North Korea, Pakistan, Politics, Regional development, Russia, South China Sea, Sustainable Development, Taiwan, Technology, United States, Urbanization, World | | Comments (0)

March 26, 2023

Andrew's April 2023 Newsletter

(My quarterly Newsletters go out to some 8,000 professional contacts worldwide. The following is my April 2023 issue. Back numbers may be accessed under What is New on my website.)

Greetings!
 
From Europe to the Middle East, the world's geopolitical tectonic plates are shifting fast.  Uncertain outcomes are confronting the Great Powers. America and its European allies remain united against a revanchist Russia. However, they appear anxious, if not paranoiac, about a rapidly rising, and sure-footed China, suddenly emerging from three years of pandemic lockdown to demonstrate its growing global gravitas. Meanwhile, a prolonged continental-scale proxy war over Ukraine has resulted in persistent inflation, repeated interest-rate hikes, social unrest, and an apparently contagious banking crisis.

Much of the West's mishaps and misguided actions reflects an unspoken denial.  Unable to call all the shots, the West's absolute dominance over the world order no longer endures. While the art of peaceful, inclusive co-existence (or "harmony despite differences" according to ancient Chinese philosophy), has yet to be learnt, the world is becoming a more dangerous place. The supply of "depleted uranium shells" to Ukraine may risk bating a heavily-nuclear-armed Russia in a downward spiral towards nuclear Armageddon.  

The following may offer fresh perspectives on some of the world's most critical flashpoints.  

Xi-Putin Meet - Ukraine War
Deciphering the Xi-Putin meeting in Moscow (Exclusive live TV interview with RT)
 Xi Jinping's Russia Visit: Official talks between Putin and Jinping held on March 21 (Live TV interview with WION TV of India)
Macron has urged Beijing to pressure Russia to end the war  (Live exclusive interview on WION TV of India)

Two Sessions - National development
Eleven ways the two sessions will safeguard advancement of China 3.0  (Op-ed in China Daily) Republished by Rome-based World Geostrategic Insight in French, Spanish, Russian, and Arabic.
What were the key takeaways from China’s National Congress session? (Live exclusive TV interview on TRT World, based in Istanbul)
How country is overcoming demographic challenges (Op-ed in China Daily)
China a sunny spot amid global dark clouds (Op-ed in China Daily) 
The Great Tech Rivalry - China v the US (A YouTube podcast of Harvard Kennedy School findings)
Economics of the Two Sessions in Beijing (Backchat on RTHK (Radio Television Hong Kong)
"After coming to live in China, I have loved it here" American digital entrepreneur Cyrus Janssen (TED Talk on YouTube)
"Most of what the Western media says about China is wrong" (A YouTube blog by retired Australian social-media commentator based in Zhongshan)
Is it too late for the US to contain China? (Aljazeera English TV interview with Kishore Mahbubani)
"China's Growth Is Seen As Threat To US' Hegemony”   China Strategist  (Live TV panel discussion on NDTV of India)
“US trying to derail China as emerging rival” (Live interview with Press TV)

The Chinese Balloon Saga
'Balloon incident may not bode well for Biden, Xi' (Commentary quoted in article featured on Turkey's independent Anadolu Agency)
India  
The Debate: Xi Jinping Handed Unprecedented 3rd Term, What Does It Mean For India? (Live TV panel debate on Republic TV of India)
North Korea says it has test-fired four strategic cruise missiles (Live interview with Press TV)

Roundup on China's Covid strategy
A roundup on China's Covid strategy  (A live TV on-location recording for Russia's NTV's weekly analytical show)

Cheer up and chill out
I have added a new entry "A Flash of Inspiration" and some other translations to a repertoire of inspirational music, videos, songs and words.

My coming London sojourn mid-July through August
I will be staying in London from 17 July to 31 August, where I remain open to business meetings, interviews, speaking engagements, lectures, social get-togethers etc.

International investment opportunities
I have joined the International Advisory Board of Silk Road Partners, an international investment firm. See its corporate profile. Mr Yves Leterme, ex-Prime Minister of Belgium (November 2009 to December 2011) has joined the International Advisory Board. If you are interested in getting in touch with us, please give me a shout.

Consultation services
Please email me at [email protected] or text my Hong Kong mobile +852 98198987.  I can also be reached on Skype at andrew.k.p.leung, LinkedIn at linkedin.com/in/andrewleunginternational, Whatsapp at (852) 98198987, WeChat at Andrewkpleung, Facebook at andrewkinpongleung, and Twitter at @Andrewkpleung

Business networking and speaking platform in Hong Kong
As an Advisor to the Denmark-based Executives' Global Network Hong Kong, I welcome your suggestion of a suitable speaker for an EGN event in Hong Kong. This will be entirely at our own cost with acknowledgement of your support, provided that we are not asked to cover any speaking fee, travel or accommodation expenses.

RSS feed and weblinks
My posts are regularly uploaded under my three blogs CHINAwatch, Publications and What's New .  A collection of leading China media and research sites can be found under China Links.

Please feel free to save my website on your computer, laptop, tablet, iPhone or iPad as a reference resource. If you wish instant access as soon as my postings appear, just click on “Subscribe to this blog’s feed” under RSS Feed on top of the right-hand column of each blog. Select the appropriate Google feed option. It is free of charge.  

This newsletter is uploaded to my website here.You may save it for reference or reading at leisure. You are free to share it on Facebook, LinkedIn, WhatsApp, Twitter or other social media devices.

Courtesies
I look forward to your guidance, advice, comments, suggestions, and criticisms. You may share the above contents with colleagues or friends. You are also welcome to publish any of them with full attribution.

If you think that I may add value to your endeavors in any way, please let me know how I may help.  If for any reason you do not wish to receive my emails, just ask me to delete your name from my data bank permanently.

Best personal regards,

Andrew K. P. Leung, SBS, FRSA              
International and Independent China Strategist
Andrew Leung International Consultants and Investments Company Limited

Positions
 
Chairman and CEO, Andrew Leung International Consultants and Investments Limited
(Founded in London, now re-incorporated in Hong Kong; name changed from Andrew Leung International Consultants Limited as from 10 July, 2017) 
China Futures Fellow, Berkshire Publishing Group, Massachusetts, USA (2011-13)
Brain Trust member, The Evian Group (global think-tank), Lausanne, Switzerland
Gerson Lehrman Group (Global Experts) Council Member
International Expert, Reuters Insight Community of Experts, Thomson Reuters
Senior Analyst, Wikistrat , a cloud-sourced global strategic consultancy based in Washington D.C.
Senior Consultant, MEC International (a UK-based global strategic energy consultancy) 
Distinguished Contributor, Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance (ATCA) (global think-tank)
Certified Sustainable Development Planner, World Institute of Sustainable Development Planners
Fellow of the Royal Society for the Encouragement of Arts, Manufactures and Commerce (FRSA)
Elected Member, Royal Society for Asian Affairs
Think-tank Research Fellow, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai Campus, PRC (14.4.2017-13.4.2020) 
International Advisory Board Member, Silk Road Partners
Advisory Board member, The e-Centre , European Centre for e-Commerce and Internet Law, Vienna 
Honorary Adviser, International Institute of Management (IIM) 
Advisory Board member, The Global Analyst, India
Honorary President, China Hong Kong Economic and Trading International Association (from 28 March, 2016) 
Global Commercial Agent, Changsha City, China
Hong Kong Advisory Board member, Denmark-based Executive Global Network (EGN)
Visiting Professor, London Metropolitan University Business School 
Governing Council Member, King’s College London, UK (2004-2010)
Advisory Board member, China Policy Institute, Nottingham University, UK (2005 -2010)
Visiting Professor, Sun Yat-sen University Business School, China (2005-10)
Founding Chairman, China Group, Institute of Directors City Branch, London, UK (2006-2010)
Vice Chairman, 48 Group Club, UK (2008-2010)
Committee Member of RSA, London Region, UK (2006-2010)
Included in UK's Who's Who since 2002
Awarded the Silver Bauhinia Star (SBS) in the July 2005 Hong Kong Honours List   

Posted at 10:00 PM in Asia, Banking, Biotechnology, Books, Business promotion, China Business, China's politics, China's Rise, Cities, Climate Change , Consumption, Currencies, Current Affairs, Defense, Democracy, Development_, e-Commerce, Economy, Emerging Economies, Energy, EU, Europe, Finance, Food and Water Security, Future, Geopolitics, Globalization, Healthcare, History, Hong Kong, Innovation, Investment , Japan, Life, Manufacturing , Middle Class, North Korea, Philosophy, Population, Regional development, Russia, Science, Sustainable Development, Taiwan, Technology, Television, United States, Urbanization, Vietnam, World | | Comments (0)

December 26, 2022

Andrew's January 2023 Newsletter

(My quarterly Newsletter goes out to some 8,000 professional contacts worldwide. The following is my January 2023 issue. Back numbers may be accessed under What's New on my website) 

Greetings! May I first wish you and your loved ones a Happy Holiday Season and a rewarding 2023!

As we experience some festive relaxation, dark clouds continue to gather on the horizon. How would the Ukraine war pan out, with Russia losing or regaining the upper hand? Is a new multipolar World Order beginning to take shape, or will American hegemony continue to endure? Would US-China relations stabilize into a new normal, flashpoints like Taiwan notwithstanding? How would China's population, a fifth of humanity, cope with a sudden transition from a "dynamic zero-Covid" strategy to "living with the virus", as the pandemic appears to morph into a less deadly endemic like many other countries? 

Testing uncertainties remain. The following may hopefully offer some useful perspectives, including sunshine in the horizon.  

World Order

How Xi’s Saudi Arabia visit shows rise of new world order beyond US hegemony (Op-ed in the South China Morning Post)

China-Arab ties enter new era Op-ed in China Daily national and global version; republished on Rome-based World Geostrategic Insights.

Momentum building for more inclusive global order  (Op-ed in China Daily, national and global version). The Hong Kong version is titled US still mired in a 'Cold War' mindset, but the tide's turning Also published in Chinese by Hong Kong's Chinese media and by Rome-based World Geostrategic Insights in French, Spanish and Russian.

Russia's Medvedev met with President Xi alluding to emergence of new world order?  (Exclusive live interview on RT) 

China, including HK, could turn ‘winter of despair’ into ‘spring of hope’ (Op-ed in China Daily) Republished with attribution by World Geostrategic Insights in French, Spanish, Russian, Arabic and by Chinese media outlets (some abridged): 來論｜冬天來了，春天還會遠嗎？; 文匯論壇 | 香港如何在全球變局中轉危為機？ 

The West is misreading China’s Party Congress at the peril of world stability (Op-ed in Rome-based World Geostrategic Insights), republished in French, Spanish, Russian, and Arabic. Also appeared in China Daily

Cambridge Poll shows 70% of World Now Supports China (An analysis) 

How the World Order is transforming into a Multipolar Contest for Global Power (and if a Brave New World is possible?) (An 80-slide PowerPoint presentation) 

China urges US to abandon its bullying to reign in the Asian country’s development (Live discussion on Press TV)

Xi: China opposes interfering in other countries' domestic politics, opposes double standards (Interview with Press TV)

Forum MEDays 2022, Tangier, Morocco, 2-5 November; "From Crises to Crises; Towards a New World Order?" (Conference highlights) 

China's Party Congress 

Deciphering China's 2022 National Party Congress (Live TV interview with WION, India) 

China's ruling party approves sweeping reshuffle at end of week-long gathering in Beijing (Live interview with Press TV)

President Xi opening the Party Congress - Hong Kong and Taiwan (Live interview with WION TV of India) 

China's Party Congress underway (Live interview with NDTV of India)

20th Party Congress - Common Prosperity (RTHK Backchat) 

应抓住世界百年未有之大变局加快粤港澳大湾区融合发展  (Chinese transcript of a talk "Seizing the opportunity of century to accelerate Greater Bay Area integration") 

China's Covid strategy

Is China hiding its COVID-19 numbers? (TV panel discussion on TRT World) 

China: dilemma of Zero-Covid strategy (Live TV interview with WION TV of India)

Is China's Covid model broken (Live interview with India Today TV) 

China's Protests

Rare anti-Xi protest in Beijing days before China's Communist Party meet (Live TV panel discussion on India Today TV) 

What actually happened outside the Manchester Chinese consulate (Live interview with RT)

Taiwan

President Xi doubles down on Taiwan; praises Hong Kong for emerging from chaos to governance (Interview with Press TV) 

Ukrainian delegation visits Taiwan - why and wherefore (Live interview with RT)

North Korea

North Korea says needs indigenous missile program for self-defense (Live interview with Press TV)

North Korea: Missile tests self-defense against direct US military threats (Live panel discussion with Press TV)

Cheer up and chill out

Experiencing Tangier, Rabat, Chefchaouen (Blue City), and Casablanca (A music video clip) 

I have added a new entry "Enjoying Nature to the Full" on Song Dynasty poet Lu You (陆游) and some other inspirational translations to my repertoire of inspirational music, videos, songs and words.

Speaking and lecturing opportunities

I will be having a month-long sojourn in London in March 2023.  During my stay, I remain open to invitations or proposals for interviews, speaking engagements, visiting lectures or tailor-made electives as a visiting/adjunct professor. 

International investment opportunities

I have joined the International Advisory Board of Silk Road Partners, an international investment firm. See its corporate profile. Mr Yves Leterme, ex-Prime Minister of Belgium (November 2009 to December 2011) has recently joined the International Advisory Board. 

If you are interested in getting in touch with us, please give me a shout. 

Consultation services

Please email me at [email protected] or text my Hong Kong mobile +852 98198987.  I can also be reached on Skype at andrew.k.p.leung, LinkedIn at andrewleunginternational, Whatsapp at (852) 98198987, WeChat at Andrewkpleung, Facebook at andrewkinpongleung, and Twitter at @Andrewkpleung

Business networking and speaking platform in Hong Kong

As an Advisor to the Denmark-based Executives' Global Network Hong Kong, I welcome your suggestion of a suitable speaker for an EGN event in Hong Kong. This will be entirely at our own cost with acknowledgement of your support, provided that we are not asked to cover any speaking fee, travel or accommodation expenses.

RSS feed and weblinks

My postings are regularly uploaded under my three blogs CHINAwatch, Publications and What is New on wwwandrewleunginternationalconsultants.com  A collection of leading China media and research sites can be found under China Links.

Please feel free to save my website on your computer, laptop, tablet, iPhone or iPad as a reference resource. If you wish instant access as soon as my postings appear, just click on “Subscribe to this blog’s feed” under RSS Feed on top of the right-hand column of each blog. Select the appropriate Google feed option. It is free of charge.  

This newsletter is uploaded to my website here.You may save it for reference or reading at leisure. You are free to share it on Facebook, LinkedIn, WhatsApp, Twitter or other social media devices.

Courtesies

I look forward to your guidance, advice, comments, suggestions, and criticisms. You may share the above contents with colleagues or friends. You are also welcome to publish any of them with full attribution. 

If you think that I may add value to your endeavors in any way, please let me know how I may help.  If for any reason you do not wish to receive my emails, just ask me to delete your name from my databank permanently. 

Best personal regards, 

Andrew K. P. Leung, SBS, FRSA               
International and Independent China Strategist
www.andrewleunginternationalconsultants.com 

Positions

Chairman and CEO, Andrew Leung International Consultants and Investments Limited
(Founded in London, now re-incorporated in Hong Kong; name changed from Andrew Leung International Consultants Limited as from 10 July, 2017) 
China Futures Fellow, Berkshire Publishing Group, Massachusetts, USA (2011-13)
Brain Trust member, The Evian Group (global think-tank), Lausanne, Switzerland
Gerson Lehrman Group (Global Experts) Council Member
International Expert, Reuters Insight Community of Experts, Thomson Reuters
Senior Analyst, Wikistrat , a cloud-sourced global strategic consultancy based in Washington D.C.
Senior Consultant, MEC International (a UK-based global strategic energy consultancy) 
Distinguished Contributor, Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance (ATCA) (global think-tank)
Certified Sustainable Development Planner, World Institute of Sustainable Development Planners
Fellow of the Royal Society for the Encouragement of Arts, Manufactures and Commerce (FRSA)
Elected Member, Royal Society for Asian Affairs
Think-tank Research Fellow, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai Campus, PRC (14.4.2017-13.4.2020) 
International Advisory Board Member, Silk Road Partners
Advisory Board member, The e-Centre , European Centre for e-Commerce and Internet Law, Vienna 
Honorary Adviser, International Institute of Management (IIM) 
Advisory Board member, The Global Analyst, India
Honorary President, China Hong Kong Economic and Trading International Association (from 28 March, 2016) 
Global Commercial Agent, Changsha City, China
Hong Kong Advisory Board member, Denmark-based Executive Global Network (EGN)
Visiting Professor, London Metropolitan University Business School 
Governing Council Member, King’s College London, UK (2004-2010)
Advisory Board member, China Policy Institute, Nottingham University, UK (2005 -2010)
Visiting Professor, Sun Yat-sen University Business School, China (2005-10)
Founding Chairman, China Group, Institute of Directors City Branch, London, UK (2006-2010)
Vice Chairman, 48 Group Club, UK (2008-2010)
Committee Member of RSA, London Region, UK (2006-2010)
Included in UK's Who's Who since 2002
Awarded the Silver Bauhinia Star (SBS) in the July 2005 Hong Kong Honours List   

Posted at 07:11 PM in Asia, Banking, Books, BRICS, Business promotion, China Business, China's politics, China's Rise, Cities, Climate Change , Consumption, Currencies, Current Affairs, Defense, Democracy, Development_, e-Commerce, Economics, Emerging Economies, Energy, EU, Europe, Finance, Food and Water Security, Future, Gas, Geopolitics, Globalization, Healthcare, Hong Kong, Innovation, Investment , Japan, Life, Manufacturing , Middle Class, Middle East, Military, North Korea, Population, Regional development, Russia, Science, Sustainable Development, Taiwan, Technology, Television, United States, Urbanization, World | | Comments (0)

September 26, 2022

Andrew's October 2022 Newsletter

(My quarterly Newsletter goes out to some 8,000 professional contacts worldwide. The following is my October 2022 issue. Back numbers may be accessed under What's New on my website) 

Greetings!

The world we have known for decades has now been turned upside down. A sense of uncertainty, anxiety and foreboding permeates everywhere. The Ukraine War is dragging on to a shivering European winter. Hell-bent on racking a revanchist Russia, it is threatening to engulf the rest of the world with nuclear Armageddon. Historic inflation and Fed rate hikes are ravaging economies across the globe. Extreme drought and weather conditions bear witness to worsening global Climate Change. Far-right neo-Nazi and neo-Fascist political parties are having a field day in hitherto liberal European democracies. All these are set on the grand stage of a no-holds-barred smokeless war of titans mounted by the United States, the extant world hegemon, against China as its perceived challenger, at the expense of collateral disruptions in four corners of the globe.

To make some sense of all this chaos, the following may offer some helpful perspectives.

Geopolitics
Can SCO summit lead to a new world order? (Live TV panel on TRT World) 
Will NATO’s new strategic concept work? (Live debate on Inside Story with Aljazeera English) 
Russia's war games with China - implications (Live TV panel discussion on TRT World) 
Implications of the Biden-Xi 2-hour 17-minute talk (Hong Kong Today on RTHK radio morning news) 
US arms sales increase under Biden (Press TV news report)

 

China
China could turn "winter of despair" into "spring of hope" (Op-ed in China Daily (English) republished in  Chinese, French, Spanish, Russian and Arabic
China's latest China's troubled economy Q2  2022 (Exclusive live TV interview on Aljazeera English News, Washington D.C.)        
Why are Chinese companies leaving US stock markets? (A commentary)
Sichuan earthquake and why is it so important (Exclusive live TV interview on TRT World)  
 
Ukraine 
How the Ukraine War changes Global Geopolitics (Op-ed in World Geostrategic Insights) republished in French, Spanish, Russian, and Arabic
How the Ukrainian Crisis redefines Eurasian geopolitics in a changed world (An in-depth international conference PowerPoint presentation) 
 
Taiwan
Pelosi's visit to Taiwan Spiking Tensions Between the U.S. and China - whys and wherefores (Exclusive interview with Rome-based World Geostrategic Insights) republished in French, Spanish, Russian and Arabic.
Pelosi's Taiwan visit and US-China relations (broadcast in Persian) (Pre-recorded interview in English broadcast in Persian on Iran International, only in last segment from time counter 38:03) 
US military exercises in Taiwan Strait in coming weeks (Exclusive live TV interview on Aljazeera English Channel)
Taiwan faces fallout of Pelosi visit (Live TV interview on WION) 
Implications of Nancy Pelosi's Taiwan visit (Exclusive Live TV interview on RT) 
Nancy Pelosi's Taiwan visit explained (dubbed in Russian) (Pre-recorded TV interview broadcast in Russian on Ren TV) 
 
Japan
 
North Korea
 
Middle East and Africa
Biden's plan for the Middle East (Pre-recorded English interview broadcast in Russian on IZ TV) 
 
Hong Kong
Priorities and challenges for the HKSAR new administration (Backchat on Radio Television Hong Kong (RTHK)
 
Forthcoming conferences

As an invited sponsored Speaker, I will be appearing in person at the 14th MEDays Forum to be held in Tangier, Morocco, from 2 - 5 November, 2022 on the theme of "From Crisis to Crisis: Towards a New Global Order?" I will be sharing my presentations in quarterly newsletters in due course.  

Speaking and lecturing opportunities

Separately, I am planning a month-long sojourn in London before summer 2023.  During my stay in London, I remain open to invitations or proposals for interviews, speaking engagements, visiting lectures or tailor-made electives as a visiting/adjunct professor. 

International investment opportunities

I have accepted the invitation to join the International Advisory Board of Silk Road Partners, an international investment firm. See its corporate profile. If you are interested in getting in touch with us, please give me a shout. 

Consultation services

Please email me at [email protected] or text my Hong Kong mobile +852 98198987.  I can also be reached on Skype at andrew.k.p.leung, LinkedIn at andrewleunginternational, Whatsapp at (852) 98198987, WeChat at Andrewkpleung, Facebook at andrewkinpongleung, and Twitter at @Andrewkpleung

Business networking and speaking platform in Hong Kong

As an Advisor to the Denmark-based Executives' Global Network Hong Kong, I welcome your suggestion of a suitable speaker for an EGN event in Hong Kong. This will be entirely at our own cost with acknowledgement of your support, provided that we are not asked to cover any speaking fee, travel or accommodation expenses.

RSS feed and weblinks

My postings are regularly uploaded under my three blogs CHINAwatch, Publications and What is New on wwwandrewleunginternationalconsultants.com  A collection of leading China media and research sites can be found under China Links.

Please feel free to save my website on your computer, laptop, tablet, iPhone or iPad as a reference resource. If you wish instant access as soon as my postings appear, just click on “Subscribe to this blog’s feed” under RSS Feed on top of the right-hand column of each blog. Select the appropriate Google feed option. It is free of charge.  

This newsletter is uploaded to my website here. You may save it for reference or reading at leisure. You are free to share it on Facebook, LinkedIn, WhatsApp, Twitter or other social media devices.

Cheer up and chill out

I have added some more inspirational translations to my repertoire of inspirational music, videos, songs and words.

Courtesies

I look forward to your guidance, advice, comments, suggestions, and criticisms. You may share the above contents with colleagues or friends. You are also welcome to publish any of them with full attribution. 

If you think that I may add value to your endeavors in any way, please let me know how I may help.  If for any reason you do not wish to receive my emails, just ask me to delete your name from my databank permanently. 

Best personal regards, 

Andrew K. P. Leung, SBS, FRSA               
International and Independent China Strategist
www.andrewleunginternationalconsultants.com 

Positions

Chairman and CEO, Andrew Leung International Consultants and Investments Limited
(Founded in London, now re-incorporated in Hong Kong; name changed from Andrew Leung International Consultants Limited as from 10 July, 2017) 
China Futures Fellow, Berkshire Publishing Group, Massachusetts, USA (2011-13)
Brain Trust member, The Evian Group (global think-tank), Lausanne, Switzerland
Gerson Lehrman Group (Global Experts) Council Member
International Expert, Reuters Insight Community of Experts, Thomson Reuters
Senior Analyst, Wikistrat , a cloud-sourced global strategic consultancy based in Washington D.C.
Senior Consultant, MEC International (a UK-based global strategic energy consultancy) 
Distinguished Contributor, Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance (ATCA) (global think-tank)
Certified Sustainable Development Planner, World Institute of Sustainable Development Planners
Fellow of the Royal Society for the Encouragement of Arts, Manufactures and Commerce (FRSA)
Elected Member, Royal Society for Asian Affairs
Think-tank Research Fellow, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai Campus, PRC (14.4.2017-13.4.2020) 
International Advisory Board Member, Silk Road Partners
Advisory Board member, The e-Centre , European Centre for e-Commerce and Internet Law, Vienna 
Honorary Adviser, International Institute of Management (IIM) 
Advisory Board member, The Global Analyst, India
Honorary President, China Hong Kong Economic and Trading International Association (from 28 March, 2016) 
Global Commercial Agent, Changsha City, China
Hong Kong Advisory Board member, Denmark-based Executive Global Network (EGN)
Visiting Professor, London Metropolitan University Business School 
Governing Council Member, King’s College London, UK (2004-2010)
Advisory Board member, China Policy Institute, Nottingham University, UK (2005 -2010)
Visiting Professor, Sun Yat-sen University Business School, China (2005-10)
Founding Chairman, China Group, Institute of Directors City Branch, London, UK (2006-2010)
Vice Chairman, 48 Group Club, UK (2008-2010)
Committee Member of RSA, London Region, UK (2006-2010)
Included in UK's Who's Who since 2002
Awarded the Silver Bauhinia Star (SBS) in the July 2005 Hong Kong Honours List     

Posted at 11:30 PM in Asia, Banking, Biotechnology, BRICS, China Business, China's politics, China's Rise, Cities, Climate Change , Consumption, Currencies, Current Affairs, Defense, Democracy, Development_, e-Commerce, Economy, Emerging Economies, Energy, EU, Europe, Finance, Food and Water Security, Future, Gas, Geopolitics, Globalization, Healthcare, History, Hong Kong, Innovation, Investment , Japan, Life, Manufacturing , Middle Class, North Korea, Population, Regional development, Russia, Science, Sustainable Development, Taiwan, Technology, Television, United States, Urbanization, Vietnam, Web/Tech, World | | Comments (0)

June 05, 2022

How the Ukraine war is likely to play out in global geopolitics

At the start of the War on Ukraine, President Putin initially seemed to be losing his grip. Massive losses of armors and combatants were incurred with little territorial or other strategic gains.  As a result, there was a prevailing sense of triumphalism in Washington and the US-led NATO coalition that Putin's "adventurism" has spectacularly backfired. 

The Western commentariat has been busy speculating on a looming ignominious Russian defeat, the emergence of a more unified Ukraine, a more united Europe and NATO rallying behind America's global anti-Russia leadership, a probable collapse of Putin's regime, and even his eventual consignment to a health sanitorium. 

For good measure, America's China strategists were quietly rubbing their hands that finally the United States would now be placed in a much better geopolitical position to concentrate on subjugating China, the “most serious long-term challenge to the international order”. "China is the only country with both the intent to reshape the international order and, increasingly, the economic, diplomatic, military and technological power to do it", according to Secretary of State Antony Blinken's China policy address at George Washington University on 26 May, 2022, his velvet-glove rhetoric of not wanting a Cold War against China notwithstanding. Some quarters in America's intelligentsia are even cheerleading for an enduring American Century. 

However, according to Ukraine President Zelensky, Russia has now controlled some 20% of Ukraine. This is seen as President Putin's "Plan B" focusing instead on occupying the Donbas region with a possible land bridge linking Russia-occupied Crimea. He has reaffirmed that Russia will not let up until all his goals are reached, banking on a prolonged war of attrition with Ukraine and its Western backers.  

Europe has been bearing the brunt of energy and food shortages with resultant price hikes, inflationary pressures and prolonged economic recession fears. Now over 100 days into the War, a sense of "Ukraine fatigue" in the West coalition is beginning to set in, according to Edward Luce of the Financial Times.

Gazprom has cut off at least 20 billion cubic meters of its annual gas supplies to customers in six European countries —Poland, Bulgaria, Finland, Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands, because they failed to make payments in rubles, a retaliatory demand President Vladimir Putin made back in March. This amounts to nearly 13% of the European Union's total annual gas imports from Russia.

While some of the European countries are wriggling out of these strictures by converting their Euro payment into Russian currency at Putin's designated Russian bank, replacing Russia's readily-available piped gas-supply through maritime oil or gas imports from the Middle East or America is unlikely to be a smooth logistical and economic solution.

Even as Europe is stocking up energy supplies in preparation for the coming winter, such precautions are unlikely to be adequate for households, let alone impact on Europe's economic activities. 

Additionally, Russia is the world’s largest exporter of wheat, accounting for more than 18% of international exports. In 2019, Russia and Ukraine together exported 25.4% of the world’s wheat, according to the Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC).

In addition, Russia exports nearly 20% of the world’s nitrogen fertilizers and, combined with its sanctioned neighbor Belarus, 40% of the world’s exported potassium. Most of these commodities are now off limits to the world’s farmers, thanks to Western sanctions and Russia’s recent fertilizer export restrictions. That's why the Chairman of the African Union, Senegal's President Macky Sall, called on President Putin on 3 June to ask for help freeing up Ukrainian grain exports. 

Meanwhile, energy and agricultural price hikes worldwide are boosting Russian coffers, strengthening instead of weakening the ruble.

After branding Saudi Arabia as a "pariah state" over the murder of journalist and Saudi dissident Jamal Khashoggi in 2018, President Biden's planned goodwill visit to meet Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is unlikely to yield adequate results, given Saudi Arabia's long-established prudent oil production and pricing policies. Moreover, windfall energy price hikes are a bonanza to the Saudis and other major oil producers in the Middle East.

Meanwhile, President Biden's domestic ratings are back in the doldrums, raising the odds of  losing Congress at mid-term elections in the autumn. Biden risks  becoming a "lame-duck" President for the remainder of his term. 

Nevertheless, the United States seems turbo-charged to segregate the world into two camps, framing this a contest of the century between democracy and authoritarianism.

However, notwithstanding draconian across-the-board sanctions and other restrictions, according to Wang Huiyao, founder and president of Center for China and Globalization (CCG) in Beijing, in 2021, "global trade hit a record $28.5 trillion, up 25% year-on-year and 13% higher than in 2019, before the pandemic struck. For all the talk of decoupling, U.S.-China trade swelled more than 20% last year, to $687.2 billion. Even with war in Ukraine, global trade is forecast to grow in 2022, albeit at a slower pace". "Cross-border investment also surpassed pre-pandemic levels last year, swelling to $1.65 trillion. China, in particular, is more integrated into the global economy than ever. In 2021, its foreign direct investment inflows rose by a third to an all-time high of $334 billion. In the first quarter of this year, they grew by more than 25% year-on-year". Click here "Globalization isn’t dead, It’s just not American anymore", Wang quipped. 

This shows how robust China's centrality remains in the world's inter-connected supply and value chains. After all, China remains the largest trading partner for 130 nations worldwide, compared with 57 for the United States. This centrality is being cemented by the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). This consists of ASEAN and its main trading partners including China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand, representing a third of the world's population and a third of the world's GDP. China is at the trading and logistical heart of it all. 

Beijing is doubling down on its global footprint. Witness the latest round of island-hoping in the South Pacific, signing a number of cooperation and law enforcement deals. 

This represents a further extension of China's massive Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), now being reformed to address concerns about debt-sustainability, transparency, corporate governance and environmental sustainability. The BRI already covers land and sea in Asia, Africa, Eurasia and Europe. Added to this is a "Polar Silk Road" capitalizing on the now more navigable, much shorter Artic Circle route linking the Pacific with the Atlantic, thanks to Climate Change, and a "Digital Silk Road" linking businesses across the globe including undersea fiber-optic telecommunication cables. 

A key strategic consideration of the BRI is to neutralize the threats posed by transit choke points such as Singapore's Malacca Strait controlled by America's Seventh Fleet. Energy and international trade, China's economic life-blood, can now transit overland, for example, through China-friendly countries in Eurasia, the Middle East, and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)., including the port of Gwadar. 

Save bipartisan unanimity to confront China, the United States remains a politically deeply-divided country, undermining its overarching geographical, natural resources, technological, cultural, financial and military dominance. It is now engaged on war on two fronts, against both Russia, the world's largest landmass, and China, the world's second largest economy, soon to become the world's largest. It is struggling with how best to keep using its "exorbitant privilege" of money-printing to prop up its economy without undermining global trust in the greenback. 

Meanwhile, China is pushing ahead with completing its own single-handedly-built Space Station by the end of this year. This will eventually replace the US-led 21-year old International Space Station (ISS), whose useful life has been repeatedly extended to 2031. The ISS has been excluding China right from the start. 

This speaks volumes about China's technological capabilities, along with its head start in certain domains of 5G, Big Data, and Internet of Things (IoT), technologies set to change lives and how businesses are conducted in a "Fourth Industrial Revolution" of the 21st century. China already dominates the world in e-payment systems. It is fast developing a digital sovereign currency (digital yuan), which is set to challenge the dollar's hegemony on multiple fronts,considering China's status as the world's largest trader, manufacturer and logistical hub. 

In addition, China is also achieving a breakthrough in nuclear fusion, a source of endless, sustainable energy, according to the South China Morning Post of 11 November, 2021. This is supported by China's leading positions in solar, wind, hydro energy capacities and as the world-largest electric vehicle production and market. Additionally, the country seems on track to realize its Paris Agreement pledge of "carbon peak" by 2030 and "carbon neutrality" by 2060. 

China has launched the world's fastest programmable quantum computers, a million times more powerful than its nearest competitor, Google’s Sycamore, according to a report of 26 October 2021 in the South China Morning Post. 

According to a research paper dated August 2021 of George Town University, by 2025 Chinese universities will produce more than 77,000 STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, Mathematics) PhD graduates per year compared to approximately 40,000 in the United States. If international students are excluded from the U.S. count, Chinese STEM PhD graduates would outnumber their U.S. counterparts more than three-to-one. 

Militarily, China is also catching up by leaps and bounds. China's navy has already become the world's largest in numbers. It is about to launch a third state-of-the art aircraft carrier. Apart from its Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) medium-range high-precision aircraft-killer missiles, according to a report of 18 December 2019, The New Missile Gap in The National Interest,  Dan Goure, Ph.D., vice president at the Lexington Institute, a public-policy research think-tank, opines that America is losing to Russian and Chinese hypersonic weapons. This includes China's "Fractional Orbital Bombardment System (FOBS)" that can circumnavigate the globe in all directions before striking targets with guided, hypersonic, multiple warheads, neutralizing extant missile defense systems. 

Some critical technological bottlenecks remains, such as high-end micro semiconductor chips (smaller than 10 nanometers).  However, to assume that China would for long be crippled technologically underestimates the nation's technological resilience. 

Along with robotics and digitization, a three-child policy with measures to support child births, China is grappling with its worsening demographics with increased productivity through nationwide high-speed transport connectivity.  

Long the talk of the town, China's high-speed rail network accounts for two-thirds of the global total. This will be nearly doubled to 70,000 km over the next 15 years. The will link up all cities over half a million people, while an additional 200,000 km of modern railway would connect all towns of 200,000 people and above. Even the remotest  parts of the country are to be connected. This would hasten China's urbanization rate from 60.6% in 2019 to 65%, doubling China's consumer middle class to 800 million by 2035. Various city clusters are formed, capitalizing on their mutual transport connectivity. All these will boost overall productivity. 

To address widening socio-economic inequality, China is adopting a strategy for "common prosperity", targeting monopolistic or predatory behavior of the nation's biggest and wealthiest conglomerates. This is part of President Xi's strategy to build "China 3.0", creating a fairer, healthier, stronger and ecologically more sustainable nation in fulfilment of the "China Dream". China's miraculous economic transformation in recent decades explains the Chinese people's overwhelming support of China's Communist Party (CCP), (over 90%), multiple ranks above many countries including the United States, according to recent Harvard Kennedy School findings. 

As pointed out by Kishore Mahbubani, a world-renowned Singaporean academic, diplomat and geopolitical consultant in his book Has China Won? (Pubic Affairs, New York, 2020), while America's bottom half have seen their incomes stagnate over the past thirty years, China's bottom half have the best lives ever, for the past 4,000 years! A resounding answer to the West's continuing aspersions about the CCP's legitimacy.

When the Ukraine war eventually comes to an end, a weakened and ostracized Russia and a devastated, partitioned Ukraine are likely to ensue, along with an extended NATO encompassing Finland and Sweden. A more nervous yet resilient Russia surrounded by enemies at the gates is likely to double down on friendship with China "without limits", both countries being arch enemies of the United States.

In particular, Russia would rely on China as its largest customer for its energy and agricultural products, the latter production likely to expand thanks to global warming. China's trade and investments are likely to replace Russia's domestic markets vacated by Western enterprises and brands. As a gateway to the rest of Europe, Ukraine is also likely to resume having China as its largest customer of its wheat and other commodities, capitalizing on the BRI's deep wallets. .

Wary of the perceived "China Threat" to values and security, the European Union is unlikely to return to its former coziness with China. While relying on America's leadership and NATO's combined military might to deter an embittered Russia, leading countries like Germany, France, Italy and Spain are likely to foster growing European capabilities, including the military, to conduct the EU's own independent affairs of state.

Europe's overall attitude towards China, therefore, may not be on all fours with that of the United States. On the one hand, it would erect firewalls and safeguards against perceived threats, on the other hand, it is likely to capitalize on the EU's excellent institutions and unique traditions to foster a more constructive relationship with a more powerful China pivoting more to Europe and Eurasia in preference to a hostile United States. This is likely to translate into more EU-China trade, investments, research, and people-to-people exchanges, to say the least. 

All told, the War in Ukraine promises to be a global game-changer. It exposes Russia's and Ukraine's vulnerabilities as well as resilience. It is ushering global dynamics more in tune with China's quest for its China Dream of national renaissance than with the United States' hope of not having to share power ever with a vast country of diametrically different civilization, culture, race and ideology. It would also beg the question whether the United States' current hard-wired anti-China mindset and policies needs some major modification. 

 

Posted at 03:14 AM in Africa, Asia, Banking, Biotechnology, Books, BRICS, Business promotion, China Business, China's politics, China's Rise, Cities, Climate Change , Consumption, Currencies, Current Affairs, Defense, Democracy, Development_, e-Commerce, Economics, Emerging Economies, Energy, EU, Eurasia, Europe, Finance, Food and Water Security, Future, Gas, Geopolitics, Globalization, Innovation, Investment , Japan, Manufacturing , Middle Class, Middle East, Military, Pakistan, Politics, Regional development, Russia, Science, South China Sea, Sustainable Development, Taiwan, Technology, United States, Urbanization, World | | Comments (0)

May 03, 2022

John Lee's manifesto for Hong Kong SAR Chief Executive

John Lee's Hong Kong SAR Chief Executive election manifesto - discussion on RTHK (Radio Television Hong Kong)'s Hong Kong Today morning news program on 3 May, 2022 (my intervention starting time-counter 36:00) 

Posted at 06:37 PM in Asia, China Business, China's politics, China's Rise, Cities, Current Affairs, Democracy, Development_, Future, Geopolitics, Hong Kong, Innovation, Politics, Technology, UK, United States | | Comments (0)

December 29, 2021

Andrew's January 2022 Newsletter

(My quarterly Newsletter goes out to some 8,500 professional contacts worldwide. The following is my January 2022 issue. Back numbers may be accessed under What's New on my website) 

Greetings! May I first wish you a promising and rewarding 2022, pandemics notwithstanding! 
 
From a trade and tech war, US bipartisan pushback against China is morphing into a clash of civilizations. Along with close Western allies, the United States is doubling down on demonizing China at every turn, imposing sanctions, denying access to markets and technologies, expanding provocative "Freedom of Navigation Operations" in the South China Sea, employing "salami slicing" tactics to advance Taiwan's de facto independence, and calling for a "diplomatic boycott" of China's Winter Olympics. All the while, the US expects China to open up more of its markets, cooperate on Climate Change, North Korea, Iran and Afghanistan, in short to bow in all to US-defined rules and objectives. All these are opening up "century of humiliation" wounds of a more globally-influential, technologically-savvy, militarily-advanced, and ideologically-self-assured China under President Xi. 
 
Attitude is no strategy. Unsurprisingly, the US tactic of maximum coercion doesn't appear to have yielded fruitful results, not to mention broken global supply and value chains, and rising domestic inflation. "Strategic miscalculations" abound, forgetting that politics remains the art of the possible. This is especially true with a peer competitor set to become the world's largest economy within a decade, one on which 128 of 190 countries worldwide depend as their largest trading partner, and one with a completely different ideology, culture and ancient civilization. 
 
The following may hopefully offer some fresh perspectives.  
 
US-China Rivalry
 
How will a new US-China "Cold War" play out? (Feature article in World Strategic Insights) Also published in French, Italian, Russian, and Arabic. The originating analysis is here.
Competition Without Catastrophe - Can America both challenge and coexist with China?  (Op-ed in World Strategic Insights) The originating analysis is here. 
What the US-led Democracy Forum doesn't say (Live interview with Press TV)
Xi-Biden virtual summit (Radio interview with Washington-DC based Feature Story News)
US-China tensions (Indus News In Focus TV panel discussion)
 
Mainland China
 
Xi's Plan to build PRC 3.0 - November Party Plenum (Feature article in World Strategic Insights) Also published in Spanish, French, and Russian  A background analysis is here
China: The Evergrande Crisis (Feature article in The Global Analyst) Also republished with permission in Spanish in World Strategic Insights 
China's Common Prosperity Goal  (Feature article in The Global Analyst) Also republished with permission in Spanish in World Strategic Insights 
Is China's Dual Circulation Strategy moving from market driven growth to planned allocation? (Op-ed in World Strategic Insights) The originating analysis is here.
China's Stagflation Risks - Warning Signals  (Feature article in The Global Analyst) 
CPC's Central Committee Sixth Plenum - What does it signify? (Backchat with Radio Television Hong Kong) 
China: Time of Xi (3-part TV documentary introducing President Xi's vision of the China Dream)
 
Russia
 
 
Taiwan
 
US to pay unbearable price over Taiwan (Live interview with Press TV)
China defends recent drills near Taipei (Live interview with Press TV) 
U.S. special forces quietly training Taiwanese (Live interview with Press TV) 
Rising tensions over Taiwan (Live interview with Press TV) 
 
India
 
From Indian border clashes to tension over Taiwan (Live panel discussion on India's CNBC TV18)
 
Taliban, Pakistan
 
Taliban and the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) (Pre-recorded TV interview broadcast in Persian on Iran International TV headquartered in London).
 
North Korea
 
 
Covid-19
 
 
Hong Kong
 
One Country Two Systems Revisited (Chapter 7 in The Rise of China – Fresh Insights and Observations, published by the Paddy Ashdown Forum (PAF)
Hong Kong social welfare spending cuts (Backchat on Radio Television Hong Kong) 
 
China's Winter Olympics
 
 
Cheer up and chill out
 
I have added some inspirational translations to the repertoire of inspirational music, videos, songs and words.

Invitation for expressions of interest in investment opportunities

An upended world abounds with fresh BUY and SELL investment opportunities on many fronts across the globe, including new technologies, new markets and new businesses. If you wish to avail yourself of my business network worldwide, please drop me a line on a strictly no-commitment basis initially. 

Consultation services

Please email me at [email protected] or text my Hong Kong mobile +852 98198987.  I can also be reached on Skype at andrew.k.p.leung, LinkedIn at andrewleunginternational, Whatsapp at (852) 98198987, WeChat at Andrewkpleung, Facebook at andrewkinpongleung, and Twitter at @Andrewkpleung

Speaking and lecturing invitations

I am open to invitations or proposals for speaking engagements, visiting lectures and tailor-made electives as a visiting/adjunct professor. 

Business networking and speaking platform in Hong Kong

As an Advisor to the Denmark-based Executives' Global Network Hong Kong, I welcome your suggestion of a suitable speaker for an EGN event in Hong Kong. This will be entirely at our own cost with acknowledgement of your support, provided that we are not asked to cover any speaking fee, travel or accommodation expenses.

RSS feed and weblinks

My postings are regularly uploaded under my three blogs CHINAwatch, Publications and What is New on www.andrewleunginternationalconsultants.com  A collection of leading China media and research sites can be found under China Links.

Please feel free to save my website on your computer, laptop, tablet, Blackberry, iPhone or iPad as a reference resource. If you wish instant access as soon as my postings appear, just click on “Subscribe to this blog’s feed” under RSS Feed on top of the right-hand column of each blog. Select the appropriate Google feed option. It is free of charge.  

This newsletter is uploaded to my website here. You may save it for reference or reading at leisure and to share it on Facebook, LinkedIn, WhatsApp, Twitter or other social media devices.

Courtesies

I look forward to your guidance, advice, comments, suggestions, and criticisms. You may share the above contents with colleagues or friends. You are also welcome to publish any of them with full attribution. 

If you think that I may add value to your endeavors in any way, please let me know how I may help.  If for any reason you do not wish to receive my emails, just ask me to delete your name from my databank permanently. 

Best personal regards, 

Andrew K.P. Leung, SBS, FRSA

International and Independent China Strategist

www.andrewleunginternationalconsultants.com  

Positions  

Chairman and CEO, Andrew Leung International Consultants and Investments Limited
(Founded in London, now re-incorporated in Hong Kong; name changed from Andrew Leung International Consultants Limited as from 10 July, 2017) 
China Futures Fellow, Berkshire Publishing Group, Massachusetts, USA (2011-13)
Brain Trust member, The Evian Group (global think-tank), Lausanne, Switzerland
Gerson Lehrman Group (Global Experts) Council Member
International Expert, Reuters Insight Community of Experts, Thomson Reuters
Senior Analyst, Wikistrat , a cloud-sourced global strategic consultancy based in Washington D.C.
Senior Consultant, MEC International (a UK-based global strategic energy consultancy) 
Distinguished Contributor, Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance (ATCA) (global think-tank)
Certified Sustainable Development Planner, World Institute of Sustainable Development Planners
Fellow of the Royal Society for the Encouragement of Arts, Manufactures and Commerce (FRSA)
Elected Member, Royal Society for Asian Affairs
Think-tank Research Fellow, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai Campus, PRC (14.4.2017-13.4.2020) 
Advisory Board member, The e-Centre , European Centre for e-Commerce and Internet Law, Vienna 
Honorary Adviser, International Institute of Management (IIM) 
Advisory Board member, The Global Analyst, India
Honorary President, China Hong Kong Economic and Trading International Association (from 28 March, 2016) 
Global Commercial Agent, Changsha City, China
Hong Kong Advisory Board member, Denmark-based Executive Global Network (EGN)
Visiting Professor, London Metropolitan University Business School 
Governing Council Member, King’s College London, UK (2004-2010)
Advisory Board member, China Policy Institute, Nottingham University, UK (2005 -2010)
Visiting Professor, Sun Yat-sen University Business School, China (2005-10)
Founding Chairman, China Group, Institute of Directors City Branch, London, UK (2006-2010)
Vice Chairman, 48 Group Club, UK (2008-2010)
Committee Member of RSA, London Region, UK (2006-2010)
Included in UK's Who's Who since 2002
Awarded the Silver Bauhinia Star (SBS) in the July 2005 Hong Kong Honours List 

Posted at 11:30 PM in Asia, Banking, Biotechnology, Books, China Business, China's politics, China's Rise, Cities, Climate Change , Consumption, Currencies, Current Affairs, Defense, Democracy, Development_, e-Commerce, Economy, Emerging Economies, Energy, EU, Europe, Film, Finance, Food and Water Security, Future, Gas, Geopolitics, Globalization, Healthcare, History, Hong Kong, Innovation, Investment , Japan, Life, Manufacturing , Middle Class, North Korea, Population, Regional development, Russia, Science, Sustainable Development, Taiwan, Technology, Television, United States, Urbanization, Vietnam, World | | Comments (0)

December 11, 2021

Hong Kong social welfare spending cuts

Backchat with RTHK (Radio Television Hong Kong) on 10 December 2021 (My interventions in the top bar start from time counter 13:14, 28:31, 35:12, 39:40, and 42:09) 

              

Posted at 02:19 PM in China's Rise, Cities, Consumption, Covid-19, Current Affairs, Democracy, Development_, e-Commerce, Economy, Healthcare, Hong Kong, Innovation, Investment , Middle Class, Politics, Population, Public health , Sustainable Development, Technology, Transport, Urbanization | | Comments (0)

September 27, 2021

Andrew's October 2021 Newsletter

(My quarterly Newsletter goes out to some 8,500 professional contacts worldwide. The following is my October 2021 issue. Back numbers may be accessed under What's New on my website) 

Greetings!
 
President Biden has retreated from a "forever war" in Afghanistan to concentrate minds on China, leaving new geopolitical space for China and Russia in Eurasia and the Arab Peninsula. Notwithstanding a high-profile "hostage exchange" with Beijing, the United States is doubling down on confronting China in the Asia Pacific. Witness the AUKUS (Australia-UK-US) nuclear-powered-submarine alliance, completing the China-encirclement with military assets in the "First and Second Island Chains" (Okinawa and Guam). This augments other coercive capabilities, including sanctions, tariffs, decoupling, and access denial of frontier technologies, not to mention anti-China narratives and tactics on human rights and democracy. 
 
China is being seen as an existential disruptor of the extant world order dominated by the United States. It begs the question how the West would be able to coexist and where needed, share power with a self-assured, ideologically different China on an equal footing. It also calls into question whether obsession with military and coercive tactics would be barking up the wrong tree, especially when China may become the world's largest economy sooner than expected. 
 
During this global power transition, different dynamics in multiple theatres, arenas and regions are at play. The following may hopefully help with some fresh perspectives. 
 
China
Behind Beijing's Big Tech Crackdown (Feature article in The Global Analyst) 
 
World Order
The original concept article is published by World Strategic Insights in  Chinese, French, Spanish, Russian, and Arabic.
End of an Empire (An Indian journalist's outline of "American decline") 
 
CCP 
Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Centenary in Retrospect (Feature article in The Global Analyst, republished by World Geostrategic Insights in French, Spanish, Russian and Arabic) 
 
Space and Technology
China's Space Odyssey (Feature article in The Global Analyst, reprinted in World Geostrategic Insights)
 
US-China conflicts
 
North Korea
 
Covid-19
 
 
Hong Kong
How to promote Hong Kong (Backchat discussion on RTHK (Radio Television Hong Kong) 
 
Cheer up and chill out
 
I have added some inspirational translations to the repertoire of inspirational music, videos, songs and words.

Invitation for expressions of interest in investment opportunities

An upended world abounds with fresh BUY and SELL investment opportunities on many fronts across the globe, including new technologies, new markets and new businesses. If you wish to avail yourself of my business network worldwide, please drop me a line on a strictly no-commitment basis initially. A UK property and alternative asset opportunity is featured here .

Consultation services

Please email me at [email protected] or text my Hong Kong mobile +852 98198987.  I can also be reached on Skype at andrew.k.p.leung, LinkedIn at andrewleunginternational, Whatsapp at (852) 98198987, WeChat at Andrewkpleung, Facebook at andrewkinpongleung, and Twitter at @Andrewkpleung

Speaking and lecturing invitations

I am open to invitations or proposals for speaking engagements, visiting lectures and tailor-made electives as a visiting/adjunct professor. 

Business networking and speaking platform in Hong Kong

As an Advisor to the Denmark-based Executives' Global Network Hong Kong, I welcome your suggestion of a suitable speaker for an EGN event in Hong Kong. This will be entirely at our own cost with acknowledgement of your support, provided that we are not asked to cover any speaking fee, travel or accommodation expenses.

RSS feed and weblinks

My postings are regularly uploaded under my three blogs CHINAwatch, Publications and What is New on www.andrewleunginternationalconsultants.com  A collection of leading China media and research sites can be found under China Links.

Please feel free to save my website on your computer, laptop, tablet, Blackberry, iPhone or iPad as a reference resource. If you wish instant access as soon as my postings appear, just click on “Subscribe to this blog’s feed” under RSS Feed on top of the right-hand column of each blog. Select the appropriate Google feed option. It is free of charge.  

This newsletter is uploaded to my website here.. You may save it for reference or reading at leisure and to share it on Facebook, LinkedIn, WhatsApp, Twitter or other social media devices.

Courtesies

I look forward to your guidance, advice, comments, suggestions, and criticisms. You may share the above contents with colleagues or friends. You are also welcome to publish any of them with full attribution. 

If you think that I may add value to your endeavors in any way, please let me know how I may help.  If for any reason you do not wish to receive my emails, just ask me to delete your name from my databank permanently. 

Best personal regards, 

Andrew K.P. Leung, SBS, FRSA

International and Independent China Strategist

www.andrewleunginternationalconsultants.com  

Positions  

Chairman and CEO, Andrew Leung International Consultants and Investments Limited
(Founded in London, now re-incorporated in Hong Kong; name changed from Andrew Leung International Consultants Limited as from 10 July, 2017) 
China Futures Fellow, Berkshire Publishing Group, Massachusetts, USA (2011-13)
Brain Trust member, The Evian Group (global think-tank), Lausanne, Switzerland
Gerson Lehrman Group (Global Experts) Council Member
International Expert, Reuters Insight Community of Experts, Thomson Reuters 
Senior Analyst, Wikistrat, a cloud-sourced global strategic consultancy based in Tel Aviv and Washington D.C. 
Senior Consultant, MEC International (a UK-based global strategic energy consultancy) 
Distinguished Contributor, Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance (ATCA) (global think-tank)
Fellow of the Royal Society for the Encouragement of Arts, Manufactures and Commerce (FRSA)
Elected Member, Royal Society for Asian Affairs
Think-tank Research Fellow, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai Campus, PRC (14.4.2017-13.4.2020) 
Advisory Board member, The e-Centre , European Centre for e-Commerce and Internet Law, Vienna 
Honorary Adviser, International Institute of Management (IIM) 
Advisory Board member, The Global Analyst, India
Honorary President, China Hong Kong Economic and Trading International Association (from 28 March, 2016) 
Global Commercial Agent, Changsha City, China
Hong Kong Advisory Board member, Denmark-based Executive Global Network (EGN)
Visiting Professor, London Metropolitan University Business School 
Governing Council Member, King’s College London, UK (2004-2010)
Advisory Board member, China Policy Institute, Nottingham University, UK (2005 -2010)
Visiting Professor, Sun Yat-sen University Business School, China (2005-10)
Founding Chairman, China Group, Institute of Directors City Branch, London, UK (2006-2010)
Vice Chairman, 48 Group Club, UK (2008-2010)
Committee Member of RSA, London Region, UK (2006-2010)
Included in UK's Who's Who since 2002
Awarded the Silver Bauhinia Star (SBS) in the July 2005 Hong Kong Honours List  

Posted at 09:21 PM in Asia, Banking, Biotechnology, Books, China Business, China's politics, China's Rise, Cities, Climate Change , Consumption, Currencies, Current Affairs, Defense, Democracy, Development_, e-Commerce, Economy, Emerging Economies, Energy, EU, Eurasia, Europe, Finance, Food and Water Security, Gas, Geopolitics, Globalization, Healthcare, History, Hong Kong, Innovation, Investment , Japan, Manufacturing , Middle Class, Middle East, Military, North Korea, Population, Regional development, Russia, Science, Sustainable Development, Taiwan, Technology, Television, United States, Urbanization, Vietnam, World | | Comments (0)

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