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What the New Zealand slaughter, the Yellow Vests, hardcore Trump supporters and China’s Rise tell us about the world

PowerPoint presentation to the Hong Kong EGN Founding Chairmen's Group on 12 April, 2019. 

Download What the New Zealand slaughter the Yellow Vests hardcore Trump supporters and China’s Rise tell us about the world

Climate change and trade agreements - Friends or foes?

The Economist Intelligence Unit's March 2019 Report  examines the degree to which the WTO and four contemporary free trade agreements (CPTPP (Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement on Trans-Pacific Partnership), EU–Singapore, EU–Canada and Korea–Australia) are supporting, or hindering, countries' climate change goals.

The Report identifies seven opportunities for boosting climate-friendly trade flows - Removal of tariff (1) and non-tariff (2) barriers on environmental goods and services; (3) Explicit limits on fossil fuel subsidies; (4) Border adjustment carbon taxes; (5) Green procurement; (6) Approval of non-discriminatory green subsidies; and (7) International co-operation on Climate Change goals. 

While most of the Report's recommendations are laudable and pragmatic, its recommended introduction of a “climate waiver” permitting countries unilaterally  to impose trade-restrictive climate policy response measures may serve to drive a wedge between advanced and developing countries at a different stage of development under the guise of Paris Agreement obligations. 

Does North Korea no longer want to denuclearize?

Live interview with Press TV on 15 March, 2019

US-North Korea deal is possible (temporary standoff notwithstanding)

Dynamics on both sides explained in my live TV interview with PressTV on 28 February, 2019

Outline Development Plan for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

Released on 18 February, 2019, the Greater Bay Area Development Plan is designed to transform this massive urban connurbation into a regional, if not global, innovation-driven, holistic, liveable economic powerhouse by 2022-35. A comparison with other leading GBAs of New York, Tokyo, and San Francisco shows that the Guangdong-HK-Macao GBA is the largest in popoluation (about 70 million), largest in area (about 56,000 sq km), by far the largest container throughput, by far the busiest aviation hub, and ranks second only to the New York GBA as a world leading financial center. 

The Plan hopes to capitalize on the Area's excellent geographical location, robust economic growth, concentration of key innovative factors, advanced level of internationaization, massive infrastructural connectivity, solid complentarity between cities, Hong Kong and Macao's One Country, Two Systems and linkages with China's Belt and Road Initiative. 

As far as Hong Kong is concerned, the Plan aims " To consolidate and enhance Hong Kong’s status as international financial, transportation and trade centres as well as an international aviation hub, strengthen its status as a global offshore Renminbi (RMB) business hub and its role as an international asset management centre and a risk management centre, promote the development of high-end and high value-added financial, commercial and trading, logistics and professional services, etc., make great efforts to develop the innovation and technology industries, nurture emerging industries, establish itself as the centre for international legal and dispute resolution services in the Asia-Pacific region, and develop into an international metropolis with enhanced competitiveness." 

In the coming years, there will no doubt be intensifying competition between leading cities in the GBA, challenges of closer socio-economic integration with Hong Kong and Macao's One Country, Two Systems, as well as repercussions from freer flow of goods, services, people, talent, ideas and capital.

If managed with flair and imagination, the Area could well emerge as a global GBA paragon. The test of the pudding, however, is in the eating.

Munich Security Conference - Pence accuses Iran of sponsoring terrorism

Live TV interview with Press TV on 16 February, 2019 

How to deal with the Venezuela situation in UN Security Council

Live TV interview on RT of 12 February, 2019

India's Budget 1 February 2019

My two live TV interviews on 1 February with WION, India's leading commercial TV station. 

First instalment (scroll to time counters to 02:00 and 17:46 for my appearances) 

Second instalment (scroll to time counter 05:26 onwards) 

 

 

China's busy year in the Arctic

A report in The Diplomat of 30 January, 2019 points out that "as an Arctic stakeholder, China’s position has evolved from being a “passive rule-follower” to becoming a regional “rule-maker.” Since release of its Arctic White Paper in January, 2018, China has steadily moved to becoming a "near Arctic state", as an "indispensable force in Arctic affairs".

Administratively, the Chinese Arctic and Antarctic Administration (CAA) is now placed directly under the new Ministry of Natural Resources (MNR), aided by its Department of Maritime Economy and Strategic Planning and the Department of International Cooperation. 

China mounted its ninth Arctic expedition in 2018, laying down an expanding network of scientific monitoring devices across the Arctic. In September, China launched its first domestically-built state-of-the-art icebreaker, Xuelong 2. A tender for the construction of a nuclear-powered icebreaker was issued last summer. In October, the China-Iceland Arctic Science Observatory was opened in northern Iceland. In December, the “Arctic Environment Satellite and Numerical Weather Forecasting” project was launched, slated to “deepen China’s participation in the governance of the Arctic, and help build the Polar Silk Road." 

The Russian Yamal LNG project remains the centerpiece of China’s nascent Polar Silk Road, carrying Russian LNG to a Chinese port. This will be served by a fleet of 15 polar-capable LNG carriers, of which six have been delivered. 

The global economy's second sun

According to the above-titled report in the Financial Times (Aphaville) dated 29 January, 2019, using proprietory algorithms, Stephen Jen and Joana Freire of Eurizon SLJ Asset Management find that the global influence of China's economy is as powerful as those of the United States and the European Union combined. 

The above finding tallies with Arvind Subramanian's earlier work Eclipse - Living in the Shadow of China's Economic Dominance, Petersen Institute for International Economics, Washington DC, September 2011. The book finds that more currencies move in tandem with the renminbi, the Chinese currency, than with the US dollar.