What's New

Unpacking Hong Kong's protests

Live interview on Sky News on 30 September 2019. 

Can China tame Hong Kong?

Recorded panel discussion on BBC World Service - The Real Story, edited and released by the BBC on 27 September, 2019

TheRealStory-20190927-CanChinaTameHongKong

 

A new Asian Century looms?

The Future is Asian , proclaims Parag Khanna, acclaimed globalist and author of this seminal book launched in February 2019.

According to the book review on Amazon.com, "Far greater than just China, the new Asian system taking shape is a multi-civilizational order spanning Saudi Arabia to Japan, Russia to Australia, Turkey to Indonesia—linking five billion people through trade, finance, infrastructure, and diplomatic networks that together represent 40 percent of global GDP. China has taken a lead in building the new Silk Roads across Asia, but it will not lead it alone. Rather, Asia is rapidly returning to the centuries-old patterns of commerce, conflict, and cultural exchange that thrived long before European colonialism and American dominance. Asians will determine their own future—and as they collectively assert their interests around the world, they will determine ours as well".

Evidently, Khanna's Asia is far more extensive, extending to Russia and the Middle East. A more circumscribed study of the emerging dominance of Asia comes in the form of a discussion paper dated September 2019 by McKinsey Global Institute- The future of Asia: Asian flows and networks are defining the next phase of globalization .

The paper makes the following salient observations -

(a) By 2017, Asia accounted for 42% of global GDP in terms of purchasing power parity, ahead of 40% of Europe and North America combined. By 2040, Asia's share is expected to increase to 52% in PPP terms and 46% in real terms, representing 39% of global consumption. 

(b) Global cross-border flows are shifting toward Asia on seven of eight dimensions—trade, capital, people, knowledge, transport, culture, resources, and the environment. The only flow that has declined is waste (environment).

(c) Asia’s integration is increasing with a shift toward regionalization. 60% of goods traded, 71% of investment in start-ups and 59% of foreign direct investment (FDI) are intraregional, with 74% travelling within the region.

(d) Asia is not monolithic but rich in diversity, resilience, and competitive strengths, yet highly integrated and mutually complimentary in metrics of innovation, market, labour, capital and cultural diversity. 

(e) There are Four Asia's: Advanced Asia (Australia, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore, and South Korea) with strengths in technology, capital and high-end consumption; China, a class of its own, acting as Asia's anchor an hub in connectivity and a hotbed for innovation; Emerging Asia (Bhutan, Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam) with dynamism in labor productivity, growth potential and intraregional connectivity; and India and Frontier Asia (Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Fiji, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Maldives, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) with a large, young population and broader range of external trading relationships outside Asia.

(f) By 2040, China's GDP is likely to reach $36 trillion, bigger than the rest of the Four Asia's combined ($31 trillion) 

(g) As China shifts from labour-intensive manufacturing, thanks to US-China trade war, Emerging and Frontier Asia's are picking up a share of this relocation. Advanced Asia and China are leading start-ups in Emerging Asia. 

(h) Asia is a dynamic hub for people, idea and culture flows. By 2018, outbound international airline passengers had risen to more than 415 million. A number of cities are becoming more cosmopolitan, such as Seoul, Bangkok, Manila, Hanoi, and Auckland.

It is evident that the 21st century is being redefined by Asia's growing connectivity and gravitas, where China is likely to exercise an outsized role. Apart from the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), the New Development Bank, and the Belt and Road, China and much of the rest of Asia will be even more closely bound together when the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) Agreement is concluded by the end of this year. This will cover ASEAN and all their respective free trade agreement partners, representing 47.4% of world population, 32.2% of global economy, 29.1 % of global trade, and 32.5% of global investment flows.

There are also good reasons for China to be welcomed and to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement between Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, and Vietnam effective December 2018. 

Against the above background, any grand strategy to isolate or decouple China may increasingly seem like a pipedream. 

Andrew's September 2019 Newsletter

(My quarterly Newsletter goes out to some 8,000 professional contacts worldwide. The following is my September 2019 issue. Back numbers may be accessed under What's New on this website) 

Greetings! 

Hong Kong has had a long and fiery summer. Reminiscent of the "butterfly effect", triggered by a Taiwan murder case, an extradition bill intended to prevent Hong Kong from becoming a haven for criminal fugitives has led to socio-political conflagration. The bill's extension to cover extradition to Mainland China ignited a powder keg of pent-up frustrations. These include upward hopelessness of the younger generation, anger with One Country Two Systems increasingly tilting towards One Country, and the government's perceived haughty nonchalance. While the vast majority of protesters are peaceful, diehard militants, seemingly aided and abetted by behind-the-scene politicians and other backers, are holding the city's law and order to ransom. 

 

Preceded by peaceful protests, the same real-time dramas of violent police-confrontation by black-clad, gas-masked militants unfold before a tired and worried city every weekend for nearly three months. Caches of high-explosives were uncovered. Petrol bombs, handy catapults and sharp metal objects are deployed. The police responds with tear gas, beanbag rounds, and arrests.  Hong Kong's parliament chamber was ransacked. The national emblem of Beijing's representative office was defaced. A hoisted national flag was thrown into the harbour. Police stations and staff quarters were attacked, their spouses and kids targeted for harassment.  Hong Kong's international airport was obstructed to a halt. Slogans of "Liberate Hong Kong" and "Revolution of Our Times" appear in banners or sprayed on buildings.  Ten Hong Kong people were recently caught displaying these banners in Tibet. A sense of anarchy prevails.

 

Meanwhile, protesters remain insistent on their "Five Demands": formal "withdrawal" of the recently abandoned and declared "dead" extradition bill, setting up an independent commission of enquiry to look into alleged police brutality, non-application of the crime of "Riot", freeing all arrested protesters, and universal suffrage unconstrained by Hong Kong's Basic Law. The militants are resorting to "flash mob" tactics in a cat-and-mouse confrontation with the police. Students are encouraged to refuse attending classes by way of a "strike", in tandem with calls for strikes by workers and businesses as part of a "civil disobedience" movement. 

 

Conspiracy rumours abound. References to a "color revolution" and a Hong Kong-styled "Tiananmen Square" are becoming more frequent. The People's Liberation Army in Hong Kong's garrison and across the border are on high alert. One Country Two Systems appears on the brink.  This is compounded by repercussions on Taiwan's presidential election dynamics to Beijing's disadvantage, and by President Trump linking the protests to US-China trade talks. Even the G7 has weighed in, cautioning against violence on both sides. 

 

The community becomes deeply divided on views regarding the protests, even amongst friends and members of the same family. The government has been refusing to meet any of the protesters' demands, until today (4th September). In a televised appearance, Chief Executive Carrie Lam announced that the Bill is formally withdrawn. She expands the scope of the exiting Independent Police Complaints Council to look into broader allegations against the police, appointing two additional eminence grises into the Council and drawing on international experts. She also announces actions to reach out to the community for solutions to deep-seated problems.

 

Amid the smoke and mirrors, the following may hopefully offer some perspectives. 

 

Hong Kong 

 

The real story of Hong Kong's protests (An in-depth snapshot) 

Prominent Hong Kong protesters arrested - a turning point?  (Live TV interview with RT) 

Hong Kong protest violence - what does toughened police action signify?  (Live interview with PressTV) 

Is Beijing ready for a crackdown on Hong Kong's violent protests?

Is a lull in violence in Hong Kong's protests a turning point for the better or for worse? (Live TV interview with CNA (Channel News Asia, Singapore) 

特朗普：習近平應與香港⽰威者會⾯ - 「司⾺昭之⼼」  (A BBC Chinese Online article)

China’s authorities can allay Hong Kong’s worst fears by addressing its frustrated democracy dreams (Op-ed in South China Morning Post)  

Cathay Pacific high-level reshuffle and Hong Kong protests impact on economy  (Live interview with Talking Business on BBC World News) 

Mayhem in Hong Kong International Airport - what can the UK government do?  (Live interview with LBC (London Broadcasting Company) Radio)

Significance of US high-level meetings with Hong Kong's star activist Joshua Wong (Live interview on Indus News (Pakistan)) 

Beijing warns of "color revolution" hallmarks in Hong Kong protests (Live interview with TRT (Turkey)) 

Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam meets the press on "dangerous situation" (Live interview with BBC Newsday) 

Another phase of Hong Kong's protests (Live interview with TRT (Turkey))

What's behind Beijing's press briefing on Hong Kong (Live interviews with ABC (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) Radio) 

Now that Beijing has spoken, what next for the Hong Kong protests? (Live interviews with ABC (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) Radio and PressTV)

Another day (28th) of violent protests spreading to several districts on Hong Kong island (Live interview with RT, Russia) 

Night of triad-infested protests in Hong Kong's Yuen Long rural areas (Live TV interview on BBC World News) 

Crunch time for Beijing to stop the breakdown of law and order in Hong Kong? (Live interview with PressTV)  

The Heat: Hong Kong protests with CGTN America, Washington D.C.  (Live TV panel discussion on CGTN America, Washington D.C.) 

BBC World News interview on storming of HK's legislative council (Live TV interview on BBC World News) 

What now, after Carrie Lam declared the extradition bill "dead"? (Live interview on ABC News Radio Sydney) 

The ins and outs of the storming of Hong Kong's Legislative Council (Live radio interview on BBC The World Tonight and live TV interview on The Brief, ANews TV Channel. Turkey) 

Real-time storming by protestors of the Hong Kong Legislative Council (Live TV interviews with BBC News and Sky News) 

Hong Kong extradition issue elevated to G20? (Live TV interview with CNA (Channel News Asia), Singapore) 

Hong Kong extradition bill suspended - what now? (Two live TV interviews on Aljazeera English Channel and a synopsis of the bill's background and broader implications) 

Hong Kong protests - BBC World News, ABC (Australia), and TRT (Turkey) live interviews (Earlier protests on 12-13 June) 

Hong Kong massive protest march against extradition bill (Live radio interview with BBC Newshour on 9 June)

 

Trade war

 

Trump tweet hints at desire to capitalize on HK's protests in trade talks (Live interview with TRT (Turkey))

Hong Kong's protests against Mainland extradition -dynamics and bigger picture with the US (A China Debate synopsis) 

Does Trump hold all the cards against China?  (An in-depth analysis) 

Has the US overplayed its hand on trade? (Op-ed in Project Syndicate) 

State Council White Paper on Facts of US-China trade frictions and China's position (An overview)

China vows to respond with firm resolve if U.S. insists on escalating trade tensions (Live interview with PressTV) 

Trump and Xi negotiate trade war ceasefire at G20 in Osaka (Live TV interview with RT) 

Trumps threatens more tariffs if President Xi doesn't show up at G20 (Live TV interview with RT) 

China rebuffs Trump’s claim about impact of US tariffs (Live interview with Press TV) 

US-China trade talks game of chicken- who's going to get hurt more? (Live interview with RT) 

Why the US-China trade war broke down and what's behind it all? (2-part TV interview with Hong Kong International Business Channel)

Trump to China: Deal now or face far worse terms (Live interview with Press TV) 

Trump's last minute tariff threat - tactic or desire to extract a further ounce of flesh from China? (Live interview with RT) 

 

Huawei - Technology War

 

Why does the US attack Huawei on all fronts? (Press TV commentary) 

Banning Google applications, how much this will hurt Huawei? (Live TV interview with TRT)

Digital Cold War? How Beijing's Striking Back Against US Crackdown on Huawei (Op-ed in Sputnik News) 

Reality check on China’s push for self-reliance in semi-conductor industry (A South China Morning Post article) 

How the US chooses to lose the race on 5G (An in-depth analysis)  

US pushback against China intensifies on more fronts (Live interview on RT) 

US trade talk takes aim at "Made in China 2025"  (An in-depth analysis) 

What is the US-China trade war really about?  (Backchat on Radio Hong Kong) 

 

World Order

 

China connects the world: Creation of a Sino-centric or more inclusive world order? (A PowerPoint presentation to British Business Association of Macao)

America Must Prepare for the Coming Chinese Empire (National Interest article of 17 June 2019 by Robert Kaplan) 

Kiron Skinner's stretched attempt to find a "Trump Doctrine"  (An in-depth analysis) 

The Value of Global China - how multilateralism may tip the balance (A McKinsey Global Institute analysis) 

 

Belt and Road

 

China’s Belt and Road Initiative - Rationale, Development, Risks, Opportunities, Implications and Way Forward (PowerPoint presentation to the French Chamber of Commerce, Hong Kong)

Europe continues to welcome Chinese investment in its ports, despite US concerns (Op-ed in South China Morning Post) 

Second Belt and Road Summit in Beijing addresses fears of critics (Live interview with TRT )

Why Beijing repeated at the Belt and Road Summit "concessions" in US trade talk  (TV interview with BBC World) 

Belt and Road reaches an inflexion point to address a mounting backlash of concerns (Backchat on Radio Hong Kong) 

Dominance or development? What’s at the end of China’s New Silk Road? (A South China Morning Post exclusive) 

 

Korean Peninsula

 

Japan removes South Korea from trade "whitelist" (Live interview with Press TV)

North Korea: US speaks of talks while ramping up hostility (Telephone interview with Press TV) 

US impounds North Korean cargo ship - what does this signify?  ( Live TV interview with Press TV) 

North Korea wants Pompeo removed from nuclear talks (Live interview with Press TV)

 

Military

 

Why China says "No" to US arms control idea after US-Russian row over Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty (Live panel discussion on Press TV)

US massive arms sale to Taiwan squares with One-China policy?  (Live TV interviews with RT and Press TV) 

Why US steps up weapon sales to Taiwan? Live interview with Press TV)

Japan restricts exports of chip, smartphone displays to S Korea (Live interview with Press TV) 

More US warships challenging China's South China Sea claims (Live interview with Press TV) 

 

Kashmir, Hong Kong's status on T-shirts and Macao's future

 

China ‘can’t just stay out’ of Kashmir dispute, will play peacemaker (Commentary on RT Question More and Live TV interview on Indus News, Pakistan) 

India's sudden cancellation of Kashmir's special status (Live TV panel discussion on Indus News, Pakistan, and commentary on RT Question More) 

Freudian slip over Hong Kong's "national" status on designer T-shirts? (Interview with RT) 

Macau could retain ‘second system’ status past 2049 (Macao Daily Times article) 

 

Economy and long-term trajectory

OECD Economic Surveys - China : Executive Summary April 2019  (A pulse-taking) 

China: Learning from mistakes and deficiencies (Feature article in The Global Analyst) 

To end the trade war and meet its centenary goals, China must embrace soft power and become more likeable (Op-ed in South China Morning Post) 

 

Sustainable Development

 

Financial Inclusion (Live panel discussion on Backchat, Radio Hong Kong) 

My coming speaking engagement in Tangier, Morocco

As with the past two years, I have again accepted an invitation as a Sponsored Speaker at the Amadeus Institute's 2019 MEDays Forum in Tangier, Morocco from 13-16 November. I will be speaking on The New Global Disorder and Zero-sum Wars. I will be uploading my presentations on my website in due course. 

Cheer up and chill out

A repertoire of inspirational music, videos, songs and words. There is also a collection in Chinese.

Cross-border M & A propositions

You are welcome to send me propositions on a no-commitment basis initially. 

Separately, you are welcome to reach out to my son Terence, a Cambridge-educated Prince Phillip Scholar and UK-qualified lawyer-turned-banker. He has over ten years M & A experience in London with Allen & Overy, Deutsche Bank, and Houlihan Lokey. He has been based in Abu Dhabi working on private equity for the past two years. He has now returned to the financial services sector in London. His personal email address is terencehyleung@gmail.com  

Consultation services

Please email me at andrewkpleung@gmail.com or text my Hong Kong mobile +852 98198987.  I can also be reached on Skype at andrew.k.p.leung, LinkedIn at andrewleunginternational, Whatsapp at (852) 98198987, WeChat at Andrewkpleung, Facebook at andrewkinpongleung, and Twitter at @Andrewkpleung

Speaking and lecturing invitations

I am open to invitations or proposals for speaking engagements, visiting lectures and tailor-made electives as a visiting/adjunct professor. 

Business networking and speaking platform in Hong Kong

As an Advisor to the Denmark-based Executives' Global Network Hong Kong, I welcome your suggestion of a suitable speaker for an EGN event in Hong Kong. This will be entirely at our own cost with acknowledgement of your support, provided that we are not asked to cover any speaking fee, travel or accommodation expenses.

RSS feed and weblinks

My postings are regularly uploaded under my three blogs CHINAwatch, Publications and What is New on www.andrewleunginternationalconsultants.com  A collection of leading China media and research sites can be found under China Links.

Please feel free to save my website on your computer, laptop, tablet, Blackberry, iPhone or iPad as a reference resource. If you wish instant access as soon as my postings appear, just click on “Subscribe to this blog’s feed” under RSS Feed on top of the right-hand column of each blog. Select the appropriate Google feed option. It is free of charge.  

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Courtesies

I look forward to your guidance, advice, comments, suggestions, and criticisms. You may share the above contents with colleagues or friends. You are also welcome to publish any of them with full attribution. 

If you think that I may add value to your endeavours in any way, please let me know how I may help.  If for any reason you do not wish to receive my emails, just ask me to delete your name from my databank permanently. 

Best personal regards, 

Andrew K.P. Leung, SBS, FRSA

International and Independent China Strategist

www.andrewleunginternationalconsultants.com  

Positions  

Chairman and CEO, Andrew Leung International Consultants and Investments Limited

(Founded in London, now re-incorporated in Hong Kong; name changed from Andrew Leung International Consultants Limited as from 10 July, 2017) 

China Futures Fellow, Berkshire Publishing Group, Massachusetts, USA (2011-13)
Brain Trust member, The Evian Group (global think-tank), Lausanne, Switzerland

Gerson Lehrman Group (Global Experts) Council Member
International Expert, Reuters Insight Community of Experts, Thomson Reuters

Senior Analyst, Wikistrat , a cloud-sourced global strategic consultancy based in Washington D.C.

Senior Consultant, MEC International (a UK-based global strategic energy consultancy) 

Distinguished Contributor, Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance (ATCA) (global think-tank)

Professor of Practice, Hong Kong Institute of Education for Sustainable Development (2018-20)

Download Certificate of Appointment as Professor of Practice

Certified Sustainable Development Planner, World Institute of Sustainable Development Planners

Download Certificate of Recognition as Certified Sustainable Development Planner

Fellow of the Royal Society for the Encouragement of Arts, Manufactures and Commerce (FRSA)
Elected Member, Royal Society for Asian Affairs

Think-tank Research Fellow, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai Campus, PRC (14.4.2017-13.4.2020) 

Advisory Board member, The e-Centre , European Centre for e-Commerce and Internet Law, Vienna 

Honorary Adviser, International Institute of Management (IIM) 

Advisory Board member, The Global Analyst, India

Honorary President, China Hong Kong Economic and Trading International Association (from 28 March, 2016) 

Download 中國香港國際經貿合作協會簡介和組織架構  

Download A brief introduction to the China-Hong Kong Economic and Trading International Association

Global Commercial Agent, Changsha City, China

Hong Kong Advisory Board member, Denmark-based Executive Global Network (EGN)

Visiting Professor, London Metropolitan University Business School 

Governing Council Member, King’s College London, UK (2004-2010)
Advisory Board member, China Policy Institute, Nottingham University, UK (2005 -2010)

Visiting Professor, Sun Yat-sen University Business School, China (2005-10)
Founding Chairman, China Group, Institute of Directors City Branch, London, UK (2006-2010)
Vice Chairman, 48 Group Club, UK (2008-2010)
Committee Member of RSA, London Region, UK (2006-2010)
Included in UK's Who's Who since 2002
Awarded the Silver Bauhinia Star (SBS) in the July 2005 Hong Kong Honours List  

Andrew's September 2019 Newsletter

(My quarterly Newsletter goes out to some 8,000 professional contacts worldwide. The following is my September 2019 issue. Back numbers may be accessed under What's New on this website) 

Greetings! 

Hong Kong has had a long and fiery summer. Reminiscent of the "butterfly effect", triggered by a Taiwan murder case, an extradition bill intended to prevent Hong Kong from becoming a haven for criminal fugitives has led to socio-political conflagration. The bill's extension to cover extradition to Mainland China ignited a powder keg of pent-up frustrations. These include upward hopelessness of the younger generation, anger with One Country Two Systems increasingly tilting towards One Country, and the government's perceived haughty nonchalance. While the vast majority of protesters are peaceful, diehard militants, apparently aided and abetted by behind-the-scene politicians and other backers, are holding the city's law and order to ransom. 

 

Preceded by peaceful protests, the same real-time dramas of violent police-confrontation by black-clad, gas-masked militants unfold before a tired and worried city every weekend evening. Caches of high-explosives were uncovered. Petrol bombs, handy catapults and sharp metal objects are deployed. The police responds with tear gas, beanbag rounds, and arrests.  Hong Kong's parliament chamber was ransacked. The national emblem of Beijing's representative office was defaced. A hoisted national flag was thrown into the harbour. Police stations and staff quarters were attacked while police relatives and kids are targeted for harassment.  Hong Kong's international airport was obstructed to a halt. Slogans of "Liberate Hong Kong" and "Revolution of Our Times" appear in banners or sprayed on buildings.  Ten Hong Kong people were recently caught displaying these banners in Tibet. A sense of anarchy and ulterior motives prevails.

 

Meanwhile, protesters remain insistent on their "Five Demands": formal "withdrawal" of the now officially-abandoned and declared "dead" extradition bill, setting up an independent commission of enquiry to look into alleged police brutality, non-application of the crime of "Riot", freeing all arrested protesters, and universal suffrage unconstrained by Hong Kong's Basic Law. The government has refused to capitulate to these demands. 

 

Conspiracy rumours abound. References to a "color revolution" and a Hong Kong-styled "Tiananmen Square" are becoming more frequent. The People's Liberation Army in Hong Kong's garrison and across the border are on high alert. One Country Two Systems appears on the brink of being torn apart. 

 

As I write, the Hong Kong situation remains fluid. This is compounded by uncertain trade and geopolitical rivalry between China and the United States. The G7 has affirmed the validity of the UK-China Joint Declaration on One Country Two Systems, cautioning against violence on both sides. 

 

Amid the smoke and mirrors, the following may hopefully offer some fresh perspective. 

 

Hong Kong 

 

Is a lull in violence in Hong Kong's protests a turning point for the better or for worse? (Live TV interview with CNA (Channel News Asia, Singapore) 

特朗普：習近平應與香港⽰威者會⾯ - 「司⾺昭之⼼」  (A BBC Chinese Online article)

China’s authorities can allay Hong Kong’s worst fears by addressing its frustrated democracy dreams (Op-ed in South China Morning Post)  

Cathay Pacific high-level reshuffle and Hong Kong protests impact on economy  (Live interview with Talking Business on BBC World News) 

Mayhem in Hong Kong International Airport - what can the UK government do?  (Live interview with LBC (London Broadcasting Company) Radio)

Significance of US high-level meetings with Hong Kong's star activist Joshua Wong (Live interview on Indus News (Pakistan)) 

Beijing warns of "color revolution" hallmarks in Hong Kong protests (Live interview with TRT (Turkey)) 

Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam meets the press on "dangerous situation" (Live interview with BBC Newsday) 

Another phase of Hong Kong's protests (Live interview with TRT (Turkey))

What's behind Beijing's press briefing on Hong Kong (Live interviews with ABC (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) Radio) 

Now that Beijing has spoken, what next for the Hong Kong protests? (Live interviews with ABC (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) Radio and PressTV)

Another day (28th) of violent protests spreading to several districts on Hong Kong island (Live interview with RT, Russia) 

Night of triad-infested protests in Hong Kong's Yuen Long rural areas (Live TV interview on BBC World News) 

Crunch time for Beijing to stop the breakdown of law and order in Hong Kong? (Live interview with PressTV)  

The Heat: Hong Kong protests with CGTN America, Washington D.C.  (Live TV panel discussion on CGTN America, Washington D.C.) 

BBC World News interview on storming of HK's legislative council (Live TV interview on BBC World News) 

What now, after Carrie Lam declared the extradition bill "dead"? (Live interview on ABC News Radio Sydney) 

The ins and outs of the storming of Hong Kong's Legislative Council (Live radio interview on BBC The World Tonight and live TV interview on The Brief, ANews TV Channel. Turkey) 

Real-time storming by protestors of the Hong Kong Legislative Council (Live TV interviews with BBC News and Sky News) 

Hong Kong extradition issue elevated to G20? (Live TV interview with CNA (Channel News Asia), Singapore) 

Hong Kong extradition bill suspended - what now? (Two live TV interviews on Aljazeera English Channel and a synopsis of the bill's background and broader implications) 

Hong Kong protests - BBC World News, ABC (Australia), and TRT (Turkey) live interviews (Earlier protests on 12-13 June) 

Hong Kong massive protest march against extradition bill (Live radio interview with BBC Newshour on 9 June)

 

Trade war

 

Trump tweet hints at desire to capitalize on HK's protests in trade talks (Live interview with TRT (Turkey))

Hong Kong's protests against Mainland extradition -dynamics and bigger picture with the US (A China Debate synopsis) 

Does Trump hold all the cards against China?  (An in-depth analysis) 

Has the US overplayed its hand on trade? (Op-ed in Project Syndicate) 

State Council White Paper on Facts of US-China trade frictions and China's position (An overview)

China vows to respond with firm resolve if U.S. insists on escalating trade tensions (Live interview with PressTV) 

Trump and Xi negotiate trade war ceasefire at G20 in Osaka (Live TV interview with RT) 

Trumps threatens more tariffs if President Xi doesn't show up at G20 (Live TV interview with RT) 

China rebuffs Trump’s claim about impact of US tariffs (Live interview with Press TV) 

US-China trade talks game of chicken- who's going to get hurt more? (Live interview with RT) 

Why the US-China trade war broke down and what's behind it all? (2-part TV interview with Hong Kong International Business Channel)

Trump to China: Deal now or face far worse terms (Live interview with Press TV) 

Trump's last minute tariff threat - tactic or desire to extract a further ounce of flesh from China? (Live interview with RT) 

 

Huawei - Technology War

 

Why does the US attack Huawei on all fronts? (Press TV commentary) 

Banning Google applications, how much this will hurt Huawei? (Live TV interview with TRT)

Digital Cold War? How Beijing's Striking Back Against US Crackdown on Huawei (Op-ed in Sputnik News) 

Reality check on China’s push for self-reliance in semi-conductor industry (A South China Morning Post article) 

How the US chooses to lose the race on 5G (An in-depth analysis)  

US pushback against China intensifies on more fronts (Live interview on RT) 

US trade talk takes aim at "Made in China 2025"  (An in-depth analysis) 

What is the US-China trade war really about?  (Backchat on Radio Hong Kong) 

 

World Order

 

China connects the world: Creation of a Sino-centric or more inclusive world order? (A PowerPoint presentation to British Business Association of Macao)

America Must Prepare for the Coming Chinese Empire (National Interest article of 17 June 2019 by Robert Kaplan) 

Kiron Skinner's stretched attempt to find a "Trump Doctrine"  (An in-depth analysis) 

The Value of Global China - how multilateralism may tip the balance (A McKinsey Global Institute analysis) 

 

Belt and Road

 

China’s Belt and Road Initiative - Rationale, Development, Risks, Opportunities, Implications and Way Forward (PowerPoint presentation to the French Chamber of Commerce, Hong Kong)

Europe continues to welcome Chinese investment in its ports, despite US concerns (Op-ed in South China Morning Post) 

Second Belt and Road Summit in Beijing addresses fears of critics (Live interview with TRT )

Why Beijing repeated at the Belt and Road Summit "concessions" in US trade talk  (TV interview with BBC World) 

Belt and Road reaches an inflexion point to address a mounting backlash of concerns (Backchat on Radio Hong Kong) 

Dominance or development? What’s at the end of China’s New Silk Road? (A South China Morning Post exclusive) 

 

North Korea

 

North Korea: US speaks of talks while ramping up hostility (Telephone interview with Press TV) 

US impounds North Korean cargo ship - what does this signify?  ( Live TV interview with Press TV) 

North Korea wants Pompeo removed from nuclear talks (Live interview with Press TV)

 

Military

 

Why China says "No" to US arms control idea after US-Russian row over Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty (Live panel discussion on Press TV)

US massive arms sale to Taiwan squares with One-China policy?  (Live TV interviews with RT and Press TV) 

Why US steps up weapon sales to Taiwan? Live interview with Press TV)

Japan restricts exports of chip, smartphone displays to S Korea (Live interview with Press TV) 

More US warships challenging China's South China Sea claims (Live interview with Press TV) 

 

Kashmir, Hong Kong's status on T-shirts and Macao's future

 

China ‘can’t just stay out’ of Kashmir dispute, will play peacemaker (Commentary on RT Question More and Live TV interview on Indus News, Pakistan) 

India's sudden cancellation of Kashmir's special status (Live TV panel discussion on Indus News, Pakistan, and commentary on RT Question More) 

Freudian slip over Hong Kong's "national" status on designer T-shirts? (Interview with RT) 

Macau could retain ‘second system’ status past 2049 (Macao Daily Times article) 

 

Economy and long-term trajectory

OECD Economic Surveys - China : Executive Summary April 2019  (A pulse-taking) 

China: Learning from mistakes and deficiencies (Feature article in The Global Analyst) 

To end the trade war and meet its centenary goals, China must embrace soft power and become more likeable (Op-ed in South China Morning Post) 

 

Sustainable Development

 

Financial Inclusion (Live panel discussion on Backchat, Radio Hong Kong) 

 

Cheer up and chill out

A repertoire of inspirational music, videos, songs and words. There is also a collection in Chinese.

Cross-border M & A propositions

You are welcome to send me propositions on a no-commitment basis initially. 

Separately, you are welcome to reach out to my son Terence, a Cambridge-educated Prince Phillip Scholar and UK-qualified lawyer-turned-banker. He has over ten years M & A experience in London with Allen & Overy, Deutsche Bank, and Houlihan Lokey. He has been based in Abu Dhabi working on private equity for the past two years. He has now returned to the financial services sector in London. His personal email address is terencehyleung@gmail.com  

Consultation services

Please email me at andrewkpleung@gmail.com or text my Hong Kong mobile +852 98198987.  I can also be reached on Skype at andrew.k.p.leung, LinkedIn at andrewleunginternational, Whatsapp at (852) 98198987, WeChat at Andrewkpleung, Facebook at andrewkinpongleung, and Twitter at @Andrewkpleung

Speaking and lecturing invitations

I am open to invitations or proposals for speaking engagements, visiting lectures and tailor-made electives as a visiting/adjunct professor. 

Business networking and speaking platform in Hong Kong

As an Advisor to the Denmark-based Executives' Global Network Hong Kong, I welcome your suggestion of a suitable speaker for an EGN event in Hong Kong. This will be entirely at our own cost with acknowledgement of your support, provided that we are not asked to cover any speaking fee, travel or accommodation expenses.

RSS feed and weblinks

My postings are regularly uploaded under my three blogs CHINAwatch, Publications and What is New on www.andrewleunginternationalconsultants.com  A collection of leading China media and research sites can be found under China Links.

Please feel free to save my website on your computer, laptop, tablet, Blackberry, iPhone or iPad as a reference resource. If you wish instant access as soon as my postings appear, just click on “Subscribe to this blog’s feed” under RSS Feed on top of the right-hand column of each blog. Select the appropriate Google feed option. It is free of charge.  

This newsletter is uploaded to my website here. You may save it for reference or reading at leisure and to share it on Facebook, LinkedIn, WhatsApp, Twitter or other social media devices.

Courtesies

I look forward to your guidance, advice, comments, suggestions, and criticisms. You may share the above contents with colleagues or friends. You are also welcome to publish any of them with full attribution. 

If you think that I may add value to your endeavours in any way, please let me know how I may help.  If for any reason you do not wish to receive my emails, just ask me to delete your name from my databank permanently. 

Best personal regards, 

Andrew K.P. Leung, SBS, FRSA

International and Independent China Strategist

www.andrewleunginternationalconsultants.com  

Positions  

Chairman and CEO, Andrew Leung International Consultants and Investments Limited

(Founded in London, now re-incorporated in Hong Kong; name changed from Andrew Leung International Consultants Limited as from 10 July, 2017) 

China Futures Fellow, Berkshire Publishing Group, Massachusetts, USA (2011-13)
Brain Trust member, The Evian Group (global think-tank), Lausanne, Switzerland

Gerson Lehrman Group (Global Experts) Council Member
International Expert, Reuters Insight Community of Experts, Thomson Reuters

Senior Analyst, Wikistrat , a cloud-sourced global strategic consultancy based in Washington D.C.

Senior Consultant, MEC International (a UK-based global strategic energy consultancy) 

Distinguished Contributor, Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance (ATCA) (global think-tank)

Professor of Practice, Hong Kong Institute of Education for Sustainable Development (2018-20)

Download Certificate of Appointment as Professor of Practice

Certified Sustainable Development Planner, World Institute of Sustainable Development Planners

Download Certificate of Recognition as Certified Sustainable Development Planner

Fellow of the Royal Society for the Encouragement of Arts, Manufactures and Commerce (FRSA)
Elected Member, Royal Society for Asian Affairs

Think-tank Research Fellow, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai Campus, PRC (14.4.2017-13.4.2020) 

Advisory Board member, The e-Centre , European Centre for e-Commerce and Internet Law, Vienna 

Honorary Adviser, International Institute of Management (IIM) 

Advisory Board member, The Global Analyst, India

Honorary President, China Hong Kong Economic and Trading International Association (from 28 March, 2016) 

Download 中國香港國際經貿合作協會簡介和組織架構  

Download A brief introduction to the China-Hong Kong Economic and Trading International Association

Global Commercial Agent, Changsha City, China

Hong Kong Advisory Board member, Denmark-based Executive Global Network (EGN)

Visiting Professor, London Metropolitan University Business School 

Governing Council Member, King’s College London, UK (2004-2010)
Advisory Board member, China Policy Institute, Nottingham University, UK (2005 -2010)

Visiting Professor, Sun Yat-sen University Business School, China (2005-10)
Founding Chairman, China Group, Institute of Directors City Branch, London, UK (2006-2010)
Vice Chairman, 48 Group Club, UK (2008-2010)
Committee Member of RSA, London Region, UK (2006-2010)
Included in UK's Who's Who since 2002
Awarded the Silver Bauhinia Star (SBS) in the July 2005 Hong Kong Honours List

Cathay Pacific high-level reshuffle and Hong Kong protests impact on economy

Live TV interview on Talking Business with BBC World News on 16 August, 2019.

Download BBCWorldLeung 

Financial Inclusion - panel discusion on RTHK Money Talk

Panel discussion on Money Talk, RTHK on 5 August, 2019 (Go to the bottom segment on Financial Inclusion) 

The Value of Global China - how multilateralism may tip the balance

Jonathan Woetzel, McKinsey senior partner and director of the McKinsey Global Institute and Jeongmin Seong,  senior fellow at the McKinsey Global Institute in Shanghai, together penned an insightful analysis in Project Syndicate on 9 July, 2019. It posits that -

"At a time when the risks of international engagement are more obvious than ever, China faces important questions about whether – and to what extent – it should continue to pursue opening up its economy to the rest of the world. At stake may be some $22-37 trillion in economic value – or 15-26% of world GDP – by 2040."

A lot depends on not only how successfully China liberalizes its services and financial markets, but also how well the rest of the world supports a global multilateral trading system, in particular, allowing technology to flow across boundaries relatively unimpeded.

On the latter count, there are genuine national security concerns with Huawei, China's 5G global tech giant, for example. It is instructive how France addresses this conundrum with a mixer of legislation, regulation, and high vigilance instead of an outright ban. Click here

Hong Kong extradition bill suspended - what now?

Live interview with Aljazeera English Channel on 15 June, 2019

Live interview with Aljazeera English Channel on 16 June, 2019

Here is a bullet-point synopsis of what's behind this bill and its implications for US-China trade and broader relations. 

Kiron Skinner's stretched attempt to find a "Trump Doctrine"

The State Department's learned director of policy planning caused quite a stir at the Future Security Forum with the New America Foundation on 29 April, 2019. (She appears from time counter 9:12:36 on the final panel before the end of the Forum). At one point, she characterised the US contest with China as the first with a "non-Caucasian" power. This racist gloss is as embarrassingly inaccurate as it is disingenuous, as rebutted by The Washington Post. Click here and here. 

Nothing illustrates better where Skinner is coming from than her attempt to rationalize President Trump's unpredictability into a "Trump Doctrine" supported by respectable, and apparently consistent, "Four Pillars" - (a) National Sovereignty (b) Reciprocity, (c) Shared Responsibility, and (d) Regional Partnership. 

However, as every party at the receiving end, US allies included, now knows, National Sovereignty means the sovereignty and primacy of the United States, not so much that of another nation if at odds with "America First". Reciprocity means other countries, however different, need to reciprocate what the US does if somehow they manage to benefit. Shared Responsibility means US allies can no longer be free-riders on American security protection. They need to pay or to varying degrees, fend for themselves. As for Regional Partnership, absent global peers, a regional approach is adopted to rally allies to serve America First priorities, which may not always coincide with theirs.   

American hegemony is characteristic of US exceptionalism underpinned by American ideals of "City on a Hill". It is driven by the "military-industrial complex" (including Wall Street) dating back to the times of Eisenhower. This powerful complex sits at the heart of American economy and politics. Its oxygen is fixation on an overarching national enemy or rival. It was the USSR during the Cold War. It's China now. 

With the rise of China, a resurgent Russia, and global economic gravitas shifting towards the developing world, a resurgence of American hegemonism appears symptomatic of a foreboding sense of relative decline.  

By inventing fancy covers for Trumpian hegemonic behaviour, Ms Skinner risks making people see that the emperor has no clothes, or think that he doesn't need them after all.