What's New

Cathay Pacific high-level reshuffle and Hong Kong protests impact on economy

Live TV interview on Talking Business with BBC World News on 16 August, 2019.

Download BBCWorldLeung 

Financial Inclusion - panel discusion on RTHK Money Talk

Panel discussion on Money Talk, RTHK on 5 August, 2019 (Go to the bottom segment on Financial Inclusion) 

The Value of Global China - how multilateralism may tip the balance

Jonathan Woetzel, McKinsey senior partner and director of the McKinsey Global Institute and Jeongmin Seong,  senior fellow at the McKinsey Global Institute in Shanghai, together penned an insightful analysis in Project Syndicate on 9 July, 2019. It posits that -

"At a time when the risks of international engagement are more obvious than ever, China faces important questions about whether – and to what extent – it should continue to pursue opening up its economy to the rest of the world. At stake may be some $22-37 trillion in economic value – or 15-26% of world GDP – by 2040."

A lot depends on not only how successfully China liberalizes its services and financial markets, but also how well the rest of the world supports a global multilateral trading system, in particular, allowing technology to flow across boundaries relatively unimpeded.

On the latter count, there are genuine national security concerns with Huawei, China's 5G global tech giant, for example. It is instructive how France addresses this conundrum with a mixer of legislation, regulation, and high vigilance instead of an outright ban. Click here

Hong Kong extradition bill suspened - what now?

Live interview with Aljazeera English Channel on 15 June, 2019

Live interview with Aljazeera English Channel on 16 June, 2019

Here is a bullet-point synopsis of what's behind this bill and its implications for US-China trade and broader relations. 

Kiron Skinner's stretched attempt to find a "Trump Doctrine"

The State Department's learned director of policy planning caused quite a stir at the Future Security Forum with the New America Foundation on 29 April, 2019. (She appears from time counter 9:12:36 on the final panel before the end of the Forum). At one point, she characterised the US contest with China as the first with a "non-Caucasian" power. This racist gloss is as embarrassingly inaccurate as it is disingenuous, as rebutted by The Washington Post. Click here and here. 

Nothing illustrates better where Skinner is coming from than her attempt to rationalize President Trump's unpredictability into a "Trump Doctrine" supported by respectable, and apparently consistent, "Four Pillars" - (a) National Sovereignty (b) Reciprocity, (c) Shared Responsibility, and (d) Regional Partnership. 

However, as every party at the receiving end, US allies included, now knows, National Sovereignty means the sovereignty and primacy of the United States, not so much that of another nation if at odds with "America First". Reciprocity means other countries, however different, need to reciprocate what the US does if somehow they manage to benefit. Shared Responsibility means US allies can no longer be free-riders on American security protection. They need to pay or to varying degrees, fend for themselves. As for Regional Partnership, absent global peers, a regional approach is adopted to rally allies to serve America First priorities, which may not always coincide with theirs.   

American hegemony is characteristic of US exceptionalism underpinned by American ideals of "City on a Hill". It is driven by the "military-industrial complex" (including Wall Street) dating back to the times of Eisenhower. This powerful complex sits at the heart of American economy and politics. Its oxygen is fixation on an overarching national enemy or rival. It was the USSR during the Cold War. It's China now. 

With the rise of China, a resurgent Russia, and global economic gravitas shifting towards the developing world, a resurgence of American hegemonism appears symptomatic of a foreboding sense of relative decline.  

By inventing fancy covers for Trumpian hegemonic behaviour, Ms Skinner risks making people see that the emperor has no clothes, or think that he doesn't need them after all. 

What the New Zealand slaughter, the Yellow Vests, hardcore Trump supporters and China’s Rise tell us about the world

PowerPoint presentation to the Hong Kong EGN Founding Chairmen's Group on 12 April, 2019. 

Download What the New Zealand slaughter the Yellow Vests hardcore Trump supporters and China’s Rise tell us about the world

Climate change and trade agreements - Friends or foes?

The Economist Intelligence Unit's March 2019 Report  examines the degree to which the WTO and four contemporary free trade agreements (CPTPP (Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement on Trans-Pacific Partnership), EU–Singapore, EU–Canada and Korea–Australia) are supporting, or hindering, countries' climate change goals.

The Report identifies seven opportunities for boosting climate-friendly trade flows - Removal of tariff (1) and non-tariff (2) barriers on environmental goods and services; (3) Explicit limits on fossil fuel subsidies; (4) Border adjustment carbon taxes; (5) Green procurement; (6) Approval of non-discriminatory green subsidies; and (7) International co-operation on Climate Change goals. 

While most of the Report's recommendations are laudable and pragmatic, its recommended introduction of a “climate waiver” permitting countries unilaterally  to impose trade-restrictive climate policy response measures may serve to drive a wedge between advanced and developing countries at a different stage of development under the guise of Paris Agreement obligations. 

Does North Korea no longer want to denuclearize?

Live interview with Press TV on 15 March, 2019

US-North Korea deal is possible (temporary standoff notwithstanding)

Dynamics on both sides explained in my live TV interview with PressTV on 28 February, 2019

Outline Development Plan for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

Released on 18 February, 2019, the Greater Bay Area Development Plan is designed to transform this massive urban connurbation into a regional, if not global, innovation-driven, holistic, liveable economic powerhouse by 2022-35. A comparison with other leading GBAs of New York, Tokyo, and San Francisco shows that the Guangdong-HK-Macao GBA is the largest in popoluation (about 70 million), largest in area (about 56,000 sq km), by far the largest container throughput, by far the busiest aviation hub, and ranks second only to the New York GBA as a world leading financial center. 

The Plan hopes to capitalize on the Area's excellent geographical location, robust economic growth, concentration of key innovative factors, advanced level of internationaization, massive infrastructural connectivity, solid complentarity between cities, Hong Kong and Macao's One Country, Two Systems and linkages with China's Belt and Road Initiative. 

As far as Hong Kong is concerned, the Plan aims " To consolidate and enhance Hong Kong’s status as international financial, transportation and trade centres as well as an international aviation hub, strengthen its status as a global offshore Renminbi (RMB) business hub and its role as an international asset management centre and a risk management centre, promote the development of high-end and high value-added financial, commercial and trading, logistics and professional services, etc., make great efforts to develop the innovation and technology industries, nurture emerging industries, establish itself as the centre for international legal and dispute resolution services in the Asia-Pacific region, and develop into an international metropolis with enhanced competitiveness." 

In the coming years, there will no doubt be intensifying competition between leading cities in the GBA, challenges of closer socio-economic integration with Hong Kong and Macao's One Country, Two Systems, as well as repercussions from freer flow of goods, services, people, talent, ideas and capital.

If managed with flair and imagination, the Area could well emerge as a global GBA paragon. The test of the pudding, however, is in the eating.