What's New: Emerging Economies

October 27, 2019

Andrew's November 2019 Newsletter

(My quarterly Newsletter goes out to some 8,500 professional contacts worldwide. The following is my November 2019 issue. Back numbers may be accessed under What's New on this website)

Greetings!

The freest city in the world, Hong Kong has paradoxically descended into anarchy and a crisis of confidence. Fake news and conspiracy theories abound. Geopolitics are out in the open. Tense US-China relations and Taiwan electioneering are using Hong Kong as a pawn. Its fluid, social media-driven tactics are inspiring protests from Catalonia to Chile. As I write, street violence continues.

Twenty-two years after return to the motherland, Hong Kong has suddenly woken up to the contradictions of One Country Two Systems. Beneath a prosperous surface, identity and social divide are tearing the city apart, aided and abetted by politicians and ulterior forces.

It will be a while before Beijing and Hong Kong emerge from this trauma. Meanwhile, the following may offer some perspectives.

Hong Kong

How to calm Hong Kong's protests (Op-ed in South China Morning Post)

With Hong Kong protests over 100 days, ten ways to end youth anger (Op-ed in South China Morning Post)

The geopolitics of Hong Kong's protests (Article on World Geostrategic Insights)

How Hong Kong's protests have turned into a "color revolution" (Live TV interview on RT)

China opposes Vice President Mike Pence's remarks on Hong Kong's protests (Live interview on Press TV)

Why the Hong Kong protesters' remaining demands can't be met (Live TV interview on Aljazeera English Channel)

Why Hong Kong protesters' remaining demands are not realistic (Live TV interview on Sky News TV)

Hong Kong student shot in chest in protest scuffle with police (Live TV interview on Press TV)

Huge anti-Beijing protest grips Hong Kong on People's Republic of China's 70th Anniversary (Live interview on RT)

Would US revoke Hong Kong's separate status if bill is passed by Congress? (Live TV interview on RT)

Unpacking Hong Kong's protests (Live interview on Sky News TV)

The real story of Hong Kong's protests (An in-depth analysis)

Smoke and mirrors of the Hong Kong protest story (Some perspectives)

Can China tame Hong Kong? (Recorded panel discussion on BBC World Service - The Real Story)

Regardless of formal withdrawal of extradition bill, distance between Hong Kong's protesters and the government seems widening (Live TV interview on TRT World)

Carrie Lam's Extradition Bill withdrawal - whys and wherefores (Live interview on Channel News Asia (CNA))

China at 70

Cross Talk: Communist China at 70 (Live TV panel debate on RT's Cross Talk)

China at 70 has much to celebrate, but its biggest challenges lie ahead (An analysis from South China Morning Post)

China & World Order

McKinsey - China becoming less dependent on the world as the world becomes more dependent on China (A McKinsey Report)

A new Asian Century looms? (In-depth analysis drawn from "The Future is Asian" and McKinsey Global Institute)

Energy

China succeeds in mass extraction of combustible methane hydrates in the South China Sea (Implications)

Greater Bay Area

China's Greater Bay Area embraces fintech and supports Macao's bid to become China's offshore RMB-denominated NASDAQ (An early roadmap)

US-China Rivalry and trade war

Trump tweets that China is buckling under his tariffs are grossly over-hyped - Nicolas Lardy of Petersen Institute for International Economics (A different perspective)

US upped the ante with tariffs on China (Live interview with TRT World)

State of The Play on US-China Competition - Center for Strategic and International Studies (An audio interview with Steve Hadley, former National Security Advisor)

North Korea

US-North Korea nuclear talks - who is more eager and why? (Live TV interview on Press TV)

China-India-Pakistan

President Xi's visit to India following Pakistan PM's visit to Beijing (Live TV interview on IndusNews)

My coming speaking engagement in Tangier, Morocco

As a Sponsored Speaker, I will be attending Amadeus Institute's 2019 MEDays Forum in Tangier, Morocco from 13-16 November. I will be speaking on Towards a New Global Disorder and Commercials Wars & Energy Wars. My speaking notes will be uploaded on my website in due course.

After the Forum, I will be staying in London until the early part of January, 2020.

Cheer up and chill out

A repertoire of inspirational music, videos, songs and words. There is also a collection in Chinese.

Cross-border M & A propositions

You are welcome to send me propositions on a no-commitment basis initially.

Separately, you are welcome to reach out to my son Terence, a Cambridge-educated Prince Phillip Scholar and UK-qualified lawyer-turned-banker. He has over ten years M & A experience in London with Allen & Overy, Deutsche Bank, and Houlihan Lokey. He has been based in Abu Dhabi working on private equity for the past two years. He has now returned to the financial services sector in London. His personal email address is terencehyleung@gmail.com

Consultation services

Please email me at andrewkpleung@gmail.com or text my Hong Kong mobile +852 98198987. I can also be reached on Skype at andrew.k.p.leung, LinkedIn at andrewleunginternational, Whatsapp at (852) 98198987, WeChat at Andrewkpleung, Facebook at andrewkinpongleung, and Twitter at @Andrewkpleung

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Best personal regards,

Andrew K.P. Leung, SBS, FRSA

International and Independent China Strategist

www.andrewleunginternationalconsultants.com

Positions

Chairman and CEO, Andrew Leung International Consultants and Investments Limited

(Founded in London, now re-incorporated in Hong Kong; name changed from Andrew Leung International Consultants Limited as from 10 July, 2017)

China Futures Fellow, Berkshire Publishing Group, Massachusetts, USA (2011-13)
Brain Trust member, The Evian Group (global think-tank), Lausanne, Switzerland

Gerson Lehrman Group (Global Experts) Council Member
International Expert, Reuters Insight Community of Experts, Thomson Reuters

Senior Analyst, Wikistrat , a cloud-sourced global strategic consultancy based in Washington D.C.

Senior Consultant, MEC International (a UK-based global strategic energy consultancy)

Distinguished Contributor, Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance (ATCA) (global think-tank)

Professor of Practice, Hong Kong Institute of Education for Sustainable Development (2018-20)

Download Certificate of Appointment as Professor of Practice

Certified Sustainable Development Planner, World Institute of Sustainable Development Planners

Download Certificate of Recognition as Certified Sustainable Development Planner

Fellow of the Royal Society for the Encouragement of Arts, Manufactures and Commerce (FRSA)
Elected Member, Royal Society for Asian Affairs

Think-tank Research Fellow, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai Campus, PRC (14.4.2017-13.4.2020)

Advisory Board member, The e-Centre , European Centre for e-Commerce and Internet Law, Vienna

Honorary Adviser, International Institute of Management (IIM)

Advisory Board member, The Global Analyst, India

Honorary President, China Hong Kong Economic and Trading International Association (from 28 March, 2016)

Download 中國香港國際經貿合作協會簡介和組織架構

Download A brief introduction to the China-Hong Kong Economic and Trading International Association

Global Commercial Agent, Changsha City, China

Hong Kong Advisory Board member, Denmark-based Executive Global Network (EGN)

Visiting Professor, London Metropolitan University Business School

Governing Council Member, King’s College London, UK (2004-2010)
Advisory Board member, China Policy Institute, Nottingham University, UK (2005 -2010)

Visiting Professor, Sun Yat-sen University Business School, China (2005-10)
Founding Chairman, China Group, Institute of Directors City Branch, London, UK (2006-2010)
Vice Chairman, 48 Group Club, UK (2008-2010)
Committee Member of RSA, London Region, UK (2006-2010)
Included in UK's Who's Who since 2002
Awarded the Silver Bauhinia Star (SBS) in the July 2005 Hong Kong Honours List

Posted at 09:50 PM in Asia, Banking, Biotechnology, Brexit, BRICS, China Business, China's politics, China's Rise, Climate Change , Consumption, Currencies, Current Affairs, Defense, Democracy, Denuclearization, Development_, e-Commerce, Economics, Economy, Emerging Economies, Energy, EU, Eurasia, Europe, Finance, Future, Gas, Geopolitics, Globalization, Hong Kong, Innovation, Investment , Japan, Life, Lifestyle, Manufacturing , Middle Class, Middle East, Military, North Korea, Regional development, Russia, Sustainable Development, Taiwan, Technology, Television, Terrorism , Urbanization, Vietnam, World | Permalink | Comments (0)

September 23, 2019

A new Asian Century looms?

The Future is Asian , proclaims Parag Khanna, acclaimed globalist and author of this seminal book launched in February 2019.

According to the book review on Amazon.com, "Far greater than just China, the new Asian system taking shape is a multi-civilizational order spanning Saudi Arabia to Japan, Russia to Australia, Turkey to Indonesia—linking five billion people through trade, finance, infrastructure, and diplomatic networks that together represent 40 percent of global GDP. China has taken a lead in building the new Silk Roads across Asia, but it will not lead it alone. Rather, Asia is rapidly returning to the centuries-old patterns of commerce, conflict, and cultural exchange that thrived long before European colonialism and American dominance. Asians will determine their own future—and as they collectively assert their interests around the world, they will determine ours as well".

Evidently, Khanna's Asia is far more extensive, extending to Russia and the Middle East. A more circumscribed study of the emerging dominance of Asia comes in the form of a discussion paper dated September 2019 by McKinsey Global Institute- The future of Asia: Asian flows and networks are defining the next phase of globalization .

The paper makes the following salient observations -

(a) By 2017, Asia accounted for 42% of global GDP in terms of purchasing power parity, ahead of 40% of Europe and North America combined. By 2040, Asia's share is expected to increase to 52% in PPP terms and 46% in real terms, representing 39% of global consumption.

(b) Global cross-border flows are shifting toward Asia on seven of eight dimensions—trade, capital, people, knowledge, transport, culture, resources, and the environment. The only flow that has declined is waste (environment).

(c) Asia’s integration is increasing with a shift toward regionalization. 60% of goods traded, 71% of investment in start-ups and 59% of foreign direct investment (FDI) are intraregional, with 74% travelling within the region.

(d) Asia is not monolithic but rich in diversity, resilience, and competitive strengths, yet highly integrated and mutually complimentary in metrics of innovation, market, labour, capital and cultural diversity.

(e) There are Four Asia's: Advanced Asia (Australia, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore, and South Korea) with strengths in technology, capital and high-end consumption; China, a class of its own, acting as Asia's anchor an hub in connectivity and a hotbed for innovation; Emerging Asia (Bhutan, Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam) with dynamism in labor productivity, growth potential and intraregional connectivity; and India and Frontier Asia (Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Fiji, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Maldives, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) with a large, young population and broader range of external trading relationships outside Asia.

(f) By 2040, China's GDP is likely to reach $36 trillion, bigger than the rest of the Four Asia's combined ($31 trillion)

(g) As China shifts from labour-intensive manufacturing, thanks to US-China trade war, Emerging and Frontier Asia's are picking up a share of this relocation. Advanced Asia and China are leading start-ups in Emerging Asia.

(h) Asia is a dynamic hub for people, idea and culture flows. By 2018, outbound international airline passengers had risen to more than 415 million. A number of cities are becoming more cosmopolitan, such as Seoul, Bangkok, Manila, Hanoi, and Auckland.

It is evident that the 21st century is being redefined by Asia's growing connectivity and gravitas, where China is likely to exercise an outsized role. Apart from the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), the New Development Bank, and the Belt and Road, China and much of the rest of Asia will be even more closely bound together when the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) Agreement is concluded by the end of this year. This will cover ASEAN and all their respective free trade agreement partners, representing 47.4% of world population, 32.2% of global economy, 29.1 % of global trade, and 32.5% of global investment flows.

There are also good reasons for China to be welcomed and to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement between Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, and Vietnam effective December 2018.

Against the above background, any grand strategy to isolate or decouple China may increasingly seem like a pipedream.

Listen to a McKinsey podcast for a Conversation about the Future of Asia.

Posted at 04:41 PM in Asia, Banking, BRICS, China Business, China's Rise, Cities, City Profile, Climate Change , Consumption, Currencies, Current Affairs, Development_, e-Commerce, Economics, Economy, Emerging Economies, Energy, EU, Eurasia, Europe, Finance, Gas, Geopolitics, Globalization, Healthcare, Hong Kong, Innovation, Investment , Japan, Lifestyle, Manufacturing , Middle Class, Middle East, North Korea, Pakistan, Politics, Population, Regional development, Russia, Science, South China Sea, Sports, Sustainable Development, Taiwan, Technology, Travel, United States, Urbanization, Vietnam, World | Permalink | Comments (1)

August 28, 2019

Andrew's September 2019 Newsletter

(My quarterly Newsletter goes out to some 8,000 professional contacts worldwide. The following is my September 2019 issue. Back numbers may be accessed under What's New on this website)

Greetings!

Hong Kong has had a long and fiery summer. Reminiscent of the "butterfly effect", triggered by a Taiwan murder case, an extradition bill intended to prevent Hong Kong from becoming a haven for criminal fugitives has led to socio-political conflagration. The bill's extension to cover extradition to Mainland China ignited a powder keg of pent-up frustrations. These include upward hopelessness of the younger generation, anger with One Country Two Systems increasingly tilting towards One Country, and the government's perceived haughty nonchalance. While the vast majority of protesters are peaceful, diehard militants, apparently aided and abetted by behind-the-scene politicians and other backers, are holding the city's law and order to ransom.

Preceded by peaceful protests, the same real-time dramas of violent police-confrontation by black-clad, gas-masked militants unfold before a tired and worried city every weekend evening. Caches of high-explosives were uncovered. Petrol bombs, handy catapults and sharp metal objects are deployed. The police responds with tear gas, beanbag rounds, and arrests. Hong Kong's parliament chamber was ransacked. The national emblem of Beijing's representative office was defaced. A hoisted national flag was thrown into the harbour. Police stations and staff quarters were attacked while police relatives and kids are targeted for harassment. Hong Kong's international airport was obstructed to a halt. Slogans of "Liberate Hong Kong" and "Revolution of Our Times" appear in banners or sprayed on buildings. Ten Hong Kong people were recently caught displaying these banners in Tibet. A sense of anarchy and ulterior motives prevails.

Meanwhile, protesters remain insistent on their "Five Demands": formal "withdrawal" of the now officially-abandoned and declared "dead" extradition bill, setting up an independent commission of enquiry to look into alleged police brutality, non-application of the crime of "Riot", freeing all arrested protesters, and universal suffrage unconstrained by Hong Kong's Basic Law. The government has refused to capitulate to these demands.

Conspiracy rumours abound. References to a "color revolution" and a Hong Kong-styled "Tiananmen Square" are becoming more frequent. The People's Liberation Army in Hong Kong's garrison and across the border are on high alert. One Country Two Systems appears on the brink of being torn apart.

As I write, the Hong Kong situation remains fluid. This is compounded by uncertain trade and geopolitical rivalry between China and the United States. The G7 has affirmed the validity of the UK-China Joint Declaration on One Country Two Systems, cautioning against violence on both sides.

Amid the smoke and mirrors, the following may hopefully offer some fresh perspective.

Hong Kong

Is a lull in violence in Hong Kong's protests a turning point for the better or for worse? (Live TV interview with CNA (Channel News Asia, Singapore)

特朗普：習近平應與香港⽰威者會⾯ - 「司⾺昭之⼼」 (A BBC Chinese Online article)

China’s authorities can allay Hong Kong’s worst fears by addressing its frustrated democracy dreams (Op-ed in South China Morning Post)

Cathay Pacific high-level reshuffle and Hong Kong protests impact on economy (Live interview with Talking Business on BBC World News)

Mayhem in Hong Kong International Airport - what can the UK government do? (Live interview with LBC (London Broadcasting Company) Radio)

Significance of US high-level meetings with Hong Kong's star activist Joshua Wong (Live interview on Indus News (Pakistan))

Beijing warns of "color revolution" hallmarks in Hong Kong protests (Live interview with TRT (Turkey))

Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam meets the press on "dangerous situation" (Live interview with BBC Newsday)

Another phase of Hong Kong's protests (Live interview with TRT (Turkey))

What's behind Beijing's press briefing on Hong Kong (Live interviews with ABC (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) Radio)

Now that Beijing has spoken, what next for the Hong Kong protests? (Live interviews with ABC (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) Radio and PressTV)

Another day (28th) of violent protests spreading to several districts on Hong Kong island (Live interview with RT, Russia)

Night of triad-infested protests in Hong Kong's Yuen Long rural areas (Live TV interview on BBC World News)

Crunch time for Beijing to stop the breakdown of law and order in Hong Kong? (Live interview with PressTV)

The Heat: Hong Kong protests with CGTN America, Washington D.C. (Live TV panel discussion on CGTN America, Washington D.C.)

BBC World News interview on storming of HK's legislative council (Live TV interview on BBC World News)

What now, after Carrie Lam declared the extradition bill "dead"? (Live interview on ABC News Radio Sydney)

The ins and outs of the storming of Hong Kong's Legislative Council (Live radio interview on BBC The World Tonight and live TV interview on The Brief, ANews TV Channel. Turkey)

Real-time storming by protestors of the Hong Kong Legislative Council (Live TV interviews with BBC News and Sky News)

Hong Kong extradition issue elevated to G20? (Live TV interview with CNA (Channel News Asia), Singapore)

Hong Kong extradition bill suspended - what now? (Two live TV interviews on Aljazeera English Channel and a synopsis of the bill's background and broader implications)

Hong Kong protests - BBC World News, ABC (Australia), and TRT (Turkey) live interviews (Earlier protests on 12-13 June)

Hong Kong massive protest march against extradition bill (Live radio interview with BBC Newshour on 9 June)

Trade war

Trump tweet hints at desire to capitalize on HK's protests in trade talks (Live interview with TRT (Turkey))

Hong Kong's protests against Mainland extradition -dynamics and bigger picture with the US (A China Debate synopsis)

Does Trump hold all the cards against China? (An in-depth analysis)

Has the US overplayed its hand on trade? (Op-ed in Project Syndicate)

State Council White Paper on Facts of US-China trade frictions and China's position (An overview)

China vows to respond with firm resolve if U.S. insists on escalating trade tensions (Live interview with PressTV)

Trump and Xi negotiate trade war ceasefire at G20 in Osaka (Live TV interview with RT)

Trumps threatens more tariffs if President Xi doesn't show up at G20 (Live TV interview with RT)

China rebuffs Trump’s claim about impact of US tariffs (Live interview with Press TV)

US-China trade talks game of chicken- who's going to get hurt more? (Live interview with RT)

Why the US-China trade war broke down and what's behind it all? (2-part TV interview with Hong Kong International Business Channel)

Trump to China: Deal now or face far worse terms (Live interview with Press TV)

Trump's last minute tariff threat - tactic or desire to extract a further ounce of flesh from China? (Live interview with RT)

Huawei - Technology War

Why does the US attack Huawei on all fronts? (Press TV commentary)

Banning Google applications, how much this will hurt Huawei? (Live TV interview with TRT)

Digital Cold War? How Beijing's Striking Back Against US Crackdown on Huawei (Op-ed in Sputnik News)

Reality check on China’s push for self-reliance in semi-conductor industry (A South China Morning Post article)

How the US chooses to lose the race on 5G (An in-depth analysis)

US pushback against China intensifies on more fronts (Live interview on RT)

US trade talk takes aim at "Made in China 2025" (An in-depth analysis)

What is the US-China trade war really about? (Backchat on Radio Hong Kong)

World Order

China connects the world: Creation of a Sino-centric or more inclusive world order? (A PowerPoint presentation to British Business Association of Macao)

America Must Prepare for the Coming Chinese Empire (National Interest article of 17 June 2019 by Robert Kaplan)

Kiron Skinner's stretched attempt to find a "Trump Doctrine" (An in-depth analysis)

The Value of Global China - how multilateralism may tip the balance (A McKinsey Global Institute analysis)

Belt and Road

China’s Belt and Road Initiative - Rationale, Development, Risks, Opportunities, Implications and Way Forward (PowerPoint presentation to the French Chamber of Commerce, Hong Kong)

Europe continues to welcome Chinese investment in its ports, despite US concerns (Op-ed in South China Morning Post)

Second Belt and Road Summit in Beijing addresses fears of critics (Live interview with TRT )

Why Beijing repeated at the Belt and Road Summit "concessions" in US trade talk (TV interview with BBC World)

Belt and Road reaches an inflexion point to address a mounting backlash of concerns (Backchat on Radio Hong Kong)

Dominance or development? What’s at the end of China’s New Silk Road? (A South China Morning Post exclusive)

North Korea

North Korea: US speaks of talks while ramping up hostility (Telephone interview with Press TV)

US impounds North Korean cargo ship - what does this signify? ( Live TV interview with Press TV)

North Korea wants Pompeo removed from nuclear talks (Live interview with Press TV)

Military

Why China says "No" to US arms control idea after US-Russian row over Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty (Live panel discussion on Press TV)

US massive arms sale to Taiwan squares with One-China policy? (Live TV interviews with RT and Press TV)

Why US steps up weapon sales to Taiwan? Live interview with Press TV)

Japan restricts exports of chip, smartphone displays to S Korea (Live interview with Press TV)

More US warships challenging China's South China Sea claims (Live interview with Press TV)

Kashmir, Hong Kong's status on T-shirts and Macao's future

China ‘can’t just stay out’ of Kashmir dispute, will play peacemaker (Commentary on RT Question More and Live TV interview on Indus News, Pakistan)

India's sudden cancellation of Kashmir's special status (Live TV panel discussion on Indus News, Pakistan, and commentary on RT Question More)

Freudian slip over Hong Kong's "national" status on designer T-shirts? (Interview with RT)

Macau could retain ‘second system’ status past 2049 (Macao Daily Times article)

Economy and long-term trajectory

OECD Economic Surveys - China : Executive Summary April 2019 (A pulse-taking)

China: Learning from mistakes and deficiencies (Feature article in The Global Analyst)

To end the trade war and meet its centenary goals, China must embrace soft power and become more likeable (Op-ed in South China Morning Post)

Sustainable Development

Financial Inclusion (Live panel discussion on Backchat, Radio Hong Kong)