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April 16, 2021

Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community April 2021

Download Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community April 9 2021

The relatively succinct unclassified Report by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) (not to be confused with the Director of Central Intelligence) gives a tour d'horizon of US national threats as currently perceived by the entire U.S. Intelligence Community. The China Threat, now regarded as America's top threat - is summarized in the introductory paragraph in the China section -

"The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will continue its whole-of-government efforts to spread China’s influence, undercut that of the United States, drive wedges between Washington and its allies and partners, and foster new international norms that favor the authoritarian Chinese system. Chinese leaders probably will, however, seek tactical opportunities to reduce tensions with Washington when such opportunities suit their interests. China will maintain its major innovation and industrial policies because Chinese leaders see this strategy as necessary to reduce dependence on foreign technologies, enable military advances, and sustain economic growth and thus ensure the CCP’s survival."

The Report ticks all the relevant boxes. Apart from the usual zero-sum binary mindset, reference to "CCP's survival" at the end of the above introduction seems to miss the main reason for the CCP's durability.

Among governments across the globe in terms of people's support, the CCP scores top ranking, even multiple ranks above the United States. This has been achieved by dramatically improving people's livelihood and aspirations over decades under its stewardship, as highlighted in a Harvard Kennedy School Ash Center Report of July 2020. 

Separately, there is a total absence of analysis on China's massive footprint in Africa, even in the extremely brief section on Africa. Regardless of the ODNI's priorities, this misses the full global picture of China's growing clout in the African continent which is blessed with the world's youngest and most dynamic population as well as a cornucopia of natural resources. 

Posted at 05:15 PM in Africa, Asia, China's Rise, Covid-19, Current Affairs, Defense, Democracy, Denuclearization, Emerging Economies, Energy, Eurasia, Food and Water Security, Future, Gas, Geopolitics, Globalization, Innovation, Investment , Manufacturing , Military, North Korea, Pakistan, Politics, Regional development, Russia, South China Sea, Southeast Asia, Taiwan, Technology, Terrorism , United States, Warfare, World | | Comments (0)

April 07, 2021

Andrew's April 2021 Newsletter

(My quarterly Newsletter goes out to some 8,500 professional contacts worldwide. The following is my April 2021 issue. Back numbers may be accessed under What's New on my website) 

Greetings!
 
While we remain consumed by Covid-19 fears, much of the world dynamics has changed almost beyond recognition. China's seemingly unstoppable rise and undaunted national confidence have engendered open or hidden anxieties, if not sinophobia, across the globe, not least in the United States and its Western allies. A fig-leaf of "cooperation" fails to hide a generational paradigm shift towards "extreme competition", if not a "Second Cold War", against China, subconsciously feared to erode the US-led liberal world order, with all that implies. 
 
A deeply-interconnected and interdependent world is now caught in a dilemma of disruptions, realignment of interests, and coercive actions with high-stake risks. Much seems to be knee-jerk reactions trying to avoid the unavoidable: a back-to-the-future reality that a 21st-century "Middle Kingdom" may soon regain its former prominence and global influence that characterized the world before the 18th century. 
 
How this pendulum swing may play out remains, at best, uncertain. The following may offer some useful food for thought. 
 
US-China geopolitics
How the US can offer a realistic response to the "China challenge"  (Op-ed in the South China Morning Post) 
Biden-Presidency's first stormy US-China high-level talks in Alaska - what do they imply? (Live TV panel discussion on Indus News and other sources) 
China, US diplomats clash in public as Alaska talks kick off (Exclusive live interview on TRT World) 
Rogue Superpower: Why This Could Be an Illiberal American Century (Op-ed in World Geostrategic Insights) Click here for Foreign Affairs and other sources. 
In Focus: South Asia - Military part of overall China threat  (Live TV panel discussion on Indus News)
America bids farewell to Trump, but Trumpism lives on (Op-ed in the South China Morning Post)  
 
China Overview
China's game-changing Five Year Plan (2021-25) ((Feature article in The Global Analyst) 
Why is China moving to a digital RMB? (A comprehensive analysis) 
 
South China Sea
 
Human Rights
China accuses EU of ‘hypocrisy’ over Uyghur row (Live interview with Press TV) 
 
Culture 
Is China "hijacking" Hollywood? (Live TV panel discussion on CNN News 18 of India and other sources) 
 
Covid-19
 
 
Middle East
 
India
LAC disengagement - will it end India-China standoff? (Live TV panel discussion on CNN News 18 of India) 
India Budget 2021:How will India woo corporate refugees exiting China? (Live TV panel discussion on WION (World is One News) of India.
 
Hong Kong
Conviction of prominent pro-democracy activists spells end of democracy in HK? (Exclusive live TV interview on Channel News Asia (CNA) of Singapore) 
Beijing changes Hong Kong's electoral system (Backchat on Radio Television Hong Kong (RTHK) 
Controversy over Hong Kong British Nationality (Overseas) (BNO) Passports (Live TV interview on Channel News Asia (CNA) of Singapore and interview opinion piece on Sputnik News of Moscow. 
Dozens of Hong Kong opposition members arrested for subversion (Exclusive live TV interview on TRT World of Turkey)
Hong Kong fugitives crossing into Mainland China tried according to China's laws (Exclusive live TV interview on TRT World of Turkey)
Macau and Hong Kong different paths to China. Why? (Inside Story TV panel discussion with Aljazeera English Channel) 
Hong Kong's elderly transport subsidy (Backchat on Radio Television Hong Kong (RTHK) 
 
Cheer up and chill out

A repertoire of inspirational music, videos, songs and words. There is also a collection in Chinese.

Invitation for expressions of interest in investment opportunities

An upended world abounds with fresh BUY and SELL investment opportunities on many fronts across the globe, including new technologies, new markets and new businesses. If you wish to avail yourself of my business network worldwide, please drop me a line on a strictly no-commitment basis initially. A UK property and alternative asset opportunity is featured here .

Consultation services

Please email me at andrewkpleung@gmail.com or text my Hong Kong mobile +852 98198987.  I can also be reached on Skype at andrew.k.p.leung, LinkedIn at andrewleunginternational, Whatsapp at (852) 98198987, WeChat at Andrewkpleung, Facebook at andrewkinpongleung, and Twitter at @Andrewkpleung

Speaking and lecturing invitations

I am open to invitations or proposals for speaking engagements, visiting lectures and tailor-made electives as a visiting/adjunct professor. 

Business networking and speaking platform in Hong Kong

As an Advisor to the Denmark-based Executives' Global Network Hong Kong, I welcome your suggestion of a suitable speaker for an EGN event in Hong Kong. This will be entirely at our own cost with acknowledgement of your support, provided that we are not asked to cover any speaking fee, travel or accommodation expenses.

RSS feed and weblinks

My postings are regularly uploaded under my three blogs CHINAwatch, Publications and What is New on www.andrewleunginternationalconsultants.com  A collection of leading China media and research sites can be found under China Links.

Please feel free to save my website on your computer, laptop, tablet, Blackberry, iPhone or iPad as a reference resource. If you wish instant access as soon as my postings appear, just click on “Subscribe to this blog’s feed” under RSS Feed on top of the right-hand column of each blog. Select the appropriate Google feed option. It is free of charge.  

This newsletter is uploaded to my website here. You may save it for reference or reading at leisure and to share it on Facebook, LinkedIn, WhatsApp, Twitter or other social media devices.

Courtesies

I look forward to your guidance, advice, comments, suggestions, and criticisms. You may share the above contents with colleagues or friends. You are also welcome to publish any of them with full attribution. 

If you think that I may add value to your endeavors in any way, please let me know how I may help.  If for any reason you do not wish to receive my emails, just ask me to delete your name from my databank permanently. 

Best personal regards, 

Andrew K.P. Leung, SBS, FRSA

International and Independent China Strategist

www.andrewleunginternationalconsultants.com  

Positions  

Chairman and CEO, Andrew Leung International Consultants and Investments Limited
(Founded in London, now re-incorporated in Hong Kong; name changed from Andrew Leung International Consultants Limited as from 10 July, 2017) 
China Futures Fellow, Berkshire Publishing Group, Massachusetts, USA (2011-13)
Brain Trust member, The Evian Group (global think-tank), Lausanne, Switzerland
Gerson Lehrman Group (Global Experts) Council Member
International Expert, Reuters Insight Community of Experts, Thomson Reuters
Senior Analyst, Wikistrat , a cloud-sourced global strategic consultancy based in Washington D.C.
Senior Consultant, MEC International (a UK-based global strategic energy consultancy) 
Distinguished Contributor, Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance (ATCA) (global think-tank)
Professor of Practice, Hong Kong Institute of Education for Sustainable Development (2018-20)
Certified Sustainable Development Planner, World Institute of Sustainable Development Planners
Fellow of the Royal Society for the Encouragement of Arts, Manufactures and Commerce (FRSA)
Elected Member, Royal Society for Asian Affairs
Think-tank Research Fellow, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai Campus, PRC (14.4.2017-13.4.2020) 
Advisory Board member, The e-Centre , European Centre for e-Commerce and Internet Law, Vienna 
Honorary Adviser, International Institute of Management (IIM) 
Advisory Board member, The Global Analyst, India
Honorary President  Yat-sen University Business School, China (2005-10)
Founding Chairman, China Group, Institute of Directors City Branch, London, UK (2006-2010)
Vice Chairman, 48 Group Club, UK (2008-2010)
Committee Member of RSA, London Region, UK (2006-2010)
Included in UK's Who's Who since 2002
Awarded the Silver Bauhinia Star (SBS) in the July 2005 Hong Kong Honours List , China Hong Kong Economic and Trading International Association (from 28 March, 2016) 
Global Commercial Agent, Changsha City, China
Hong Kong Advisory Board member, Denmark-based Executive Global Network (EGN)
Visiting Professor, London Metropolitan University Business School 
Governing Council Member, King’s College London, UK (2004-2010)
Advisory Board member, China Policy Institute, Nottingham University, UK (2005 -2010)
Visiting Professor, Sun Yat-sen University Business School, China (2005-10)
Founding Chairman, China Group, Institute of Directors City Branch, London, UK (2006-2010)
Vice Chairman, 48 Group Club, UK (2008-2010)
Committee Member of RSA, London Region, UK (2006-2010)
Included in UK's Who's Who since 2002
Awarded the Silver Bauhinia Star (SBS) in the July 2005 Hong Kong Honours List 

Posted at 05:50 PM in Asia, Banking, Biotechnology, BRICS, China Business, China's politics, China's Rise, Climate Change , Consumption, Currencies, Current Affairs, Defense, Democracy, Development_, e-Commerce, Economy, Emerging Economies, Energy, Ethics, EU, Europe, Finance, Food and Water Security, Future, Gas, Geopolitics, Globalization, Healthcare, History, Hong Kong, Innovation, Investment , Japan, Manufacturing , Middle Class, Military, North Korea, Regional development, Religion, Russia, Science, Sustainable Development, Taiwan, Technology, Television, United States, Urbanization, Vietnam, Web/Tech, World | | Comments (0)

January 31, 2021

India Budget 2021:How will India woo corporate refugees exiting China?

TV panel discussion on 30 January, 2021 with WION (World is One News), an international English-language news-based pay TV channel based in India. (My interventions are from time counter 2:09; 11:24; and 21:47) 

Posted at 10:20 PM in China Business, China's Rise, Current Affairs, e-Commerce, Economy, Emerging Economies, Geopolitics, Globalization, Hong Kong, ICT, India, Investment , Manufacturing , Politics, Regional development, Southeast Asia, Technology, Television, United States, Vietnam, World | | Comments (0)

December 21, 2020

Macau and Hong Kong different paths to China. Why?

Inside Story TV panel discussion with Aljazeera English on 20 December, 2020

Posted at 10:52 AM in China's politics, China's Rise, Cities, City Profile, Covid-19, Current Affairs, Democracy, Development_, Emerging Economies, Finance, Geopolitics, Hong Kong, Macao, Middle Class, Politics, Regional development, Taiwan, UK, United States | | Comments (0)

December 18, 2020

Andrew's January 2021 Newsletter

(My quarterly Newsletter goes out to some 8,500 professional contacts worldwide. The following is my January 2021 issue. Back numbers may be accessed under What's New on my website) 

First, may I wish you a Merry Christmas and a most prosperous 2021! 
 
2020 will be remembered as the year turning the world upside down. A global pandemic of the century has exposed the fragility of health systems and deepened the fissures of globalization. US-China relations have sunk to an all-time low with bipartisan consensus branding China a systemic menace and arch competitor. Hong Kong and Taiwan are now caught in the crossfire while the rest of Asia are hedging their bets. The tectonic shifts in geopolitics are being felt in supply chains worldwide. A new Biden Presidency is raising some expectations without clearing fundamental anxieties.  Amidst the engulfing fog, the following may hopefully offer some new perspectives. 
 
US-China geopolitics
 
The New China Scare - Why America Shouldn’t Panic About Its Latest Challenger (A think-piece in World Strategic Insights) The same piece as a commentary with views from an American YouTuber at the end) 
US-China: Is it a paradigm shift? (A full panel YouTube discussion on the annual MEDays Forum originally scheduled for Tangier, Morocco) 
 
China Overview
 
Why the world needs China (A YouTube presentation by an American digital entrepreneur) 
Beijing passes new whistleblower law (Live TV interview on WION of India) 
 
Asia
 
 
Taiwan
 
 
India
 
China's border dispute with Nepal and alleged "debt trap" (TV discussion on CNN News 18 (India) 
 
Hong Kong
 
A post-Trump era; Hong Kong 2020 and beyond (A PowerPoint presentation) 
Need for judicial reform in Hong Kong? (Backchat on RTHK (Radio Television Hong Kong) 
Disqualification and resignation of Hong Kong's pan-democrats (Backchat on RTHK (Radio Television Hong Kong)
Arrest of seven anti-Beijing lawmakers in Hong Kong (Live TV interview on TRT World) 
Hong Kong's 12 fugitives and human rights (Backchat on RTHK (Radio Television Hong Kong)
The future of RTHK (Radio Television Hong Kong) (Backchat on RTHK (Radio Television Hong Kong)
HK civil servants required to take oaths of allegiance (Backchat on RTHK (Radio Television Hong Kong)
 
Cheer up and chill out

A repertoire of inspirational music, videos, songs and words. There is also a collection in Chinese.

Invitation for expressions of interest in investment opportunities

An upended world abounds with fresh BUY and SELL investment opportunities on many fronts across the globe, including new technologies, new markets and new businesses. If you wish to avail yourself of my business network worldwide, please drop me a line on a strictly no-commitment basis initially. A UK property and alternative asset opportunity is featured here .

Consultation services

Please email me at andrewkpleung@gmail.com or text my Hong Kong mobile +852 98198987.  I can also be reached on Skype at andrew.k.p.leung, LinkedIn at andrewleunginternational, Whatsapp at (852) 98198987, WeChat at Andrewkpleung, Facebook at andrewkinpongleung, and Twitter at @Andrewkpleung

Speaking and lecturing invitations

I am open to invitations or proposals for speaking engagements, visiting lectures and tailor-made electives as a visiting/adjunct professor. 

Business networking and speaking platform in Hong Kong

As an Advisor to the Denmark-based Executives' Global Network Hong Kong, I welcome your suggestion of a suitable speaker for an EGN event in Hong Kong. This will be entirely at our own cost with acknowledgement of your support, provided that we are not asked to cover any speaking fee, travel or accommodation expenses.

RSS feed and weblinks

My postings are regularly uploaded under my three blogs CHINAwatch, Publications and What is New on www.andrewleunginternationalconsultants.com  A collection of leading China media and research sites can be found under China Links.

Please feel free to save my website on your computer, laptop, tablet, Blackberry, iPhone or iPad as a reference resource. If you wish instant access as soon as my postings appear, just click on “Subscribe to this blog’s feed” under RSS Feed on top of the right-hand column of each blog. Select the appropriate Google feed option. It is free of charge.  

This newsletter is uploaded to my website here. You may save it for reference or reading at leisure and to share it on Facebook, LinkedIn, WhatsApp, Twitter or other social media devices.

Courtesies

I look forward to your guidance, advice, comments, suggestions, and criticisms. You may share the above contents with colleagues or friends. You are also welcome to publish any of them with full attribution. 

If you think that I may add value to your endeavors in any way, please let me know how I may help.  If for any reason you do not wish to receive my emails, just ask me to delete your name from my databank permanently. 

Best personal regards, 

Andrew K.P. Leung, SBS, FRSA

International and Independent China Strategist

www.andrewleunginternationalconsultants.com  

Positions  

Chairman and CEO, Andrew Leung International Consultants and Investments Limited
(Founded in London, now re-incorporated in Hong Kong; name changed from Andrew Leung International Consultants Limited as from 10 July, 2017) 
China Futures Fellow, Berkshire Publishing Group, Massachusetts, USA (2011-13)
Brain Trust member, The Evian Group (global think-tank), Lausanne, Switzerland
Gerson Lehrman Group (Global Experts) Council Member
International Expert, Reuters Insight Community of Experts, Thomson Reuters
Senior Analyst, Wikistrat , a cloud-sourced global strategic consultancy based in Washington D.C.
Senior Consultant, MEC International (a UK-based global strategic energy consultancy) 
Distinguished Contributor, Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance (ATCA) (global think-tank)
Professor of Practice, Hong Kong Institute of Education for Sustainable Development (2018-20)
Certified Sustainable Development Planner, World Institute of Sustainable Development Planners
Fellow of the Royal Society for the Encouragement of Arts, Manufactures and Commerce (FRSA)
Elected Member, Royal Society for Asian Affairs
Think-tank Research Fellow, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai Campus, PRC (14.4.2017-13.4.2020) 
Advisory Board member, The e-Centre , European Centre for e-Commerce and Internet Law, Vienna 
Honorary Adviser, International Institute of Management (IIM) 
Advisory Board member, The Global Analyst, India
Honorary President, China Hong Kong Economic and Trading International Association (from 28 March, 2016) 
Global Commercial Agent, Changsha City, China
Hong Kong Advisory Board member, Denmark-based Executive Global Network (EGN)
Visiting Professor, London Metropolitan University Business School 
Governing Council Member, King’s College London, UK (2004-2010)
Advisory Board member, China Policy Institute, Nottingham University, UK (2005 -2010)
Visiting Professor, Sun Yat-sen University Business School, China (2005-10)
Founding Chairman, China Group, Institute of Directors City Branch, London, UK (2006-2010)
Vice Chairman, 48 Group Club, UK (2008-2010)
Committee Member of RSA, London Region, UK (2006-2010)
Included in UK's Who's Who since 2002
Awarded the Silver Bauhinia Star (SBS) in the July 2005 Hong Kong Honours List  

Posted at 03:51 PM in Asia, Banking, Biotechnology, BRICS, China Business, China's politics, China's Rise, Climate Change , Consumption, Currencies, Current Affairs, Defense, Democracy, Denuclearization, Development_, e-Commerce, Economics, Economy, Emerging Economies, Energy, EU, Eurasia, Europe, Finance, Food and Water Security, Future, Geopolitics, Globalization, Healthcare, History, Hong Kong, Innovation, Investment , Japan, Manufacturing , Middle Class, Middle East, Military, North Korea, Politics, Regional development, Russia, South China Sea, Sustainable Development, Taiwan, Technology, Television, United States, Urbanization, World | | Comments (0)

December 11, 2020

Political Economy of a Biden Presidency and RCEP - Implications for the Asian Region

PowerPoint presentation to the Hong Kong EGN Founding Chairmen Group meeting on 12 November, 2020. (Due to Covid-19 pandemic, the meeting was conducted via Zoom)  Download Political Economy of a Biden Presidency and RCEP - Implications for the Asian Region

Posted at 01:39 PM in Asia, Banking, Biotechnology, China Business, China's politics, China's Rise, Cities, Climate Change , Consumption, Currencies, Current Affairs, Defense, Democracy, Development_, e-Commerce, Economics, Emerging Economies, EU, Eurasia, Europe, Finance, Future, Geopolitics, Globalization, Healthcare, Hong Kong, Innovation, Investment , Japan, Manufacturing , Middle Class, Middle East, Military, North Korea, Pakistan, Politics, Population, Regional development, Russia, Science, South China Sea, Southeast Asia, Sustainable Development, Taiwan, Technology, Turkey, United States, Urbanization, Vietnam, World | | Comments (0)

November 23, 2020

MEDays Talks 2020

The MEDays Forum is an annual international conference in Tangier focusing on global issues attended by hundreds of delegates across the world. It is organized by the Amadeus Institute, a think tank under the auspices of HRH The King of Morocco. This year, thanks to Covid-19, the Forum moved online to take the form of MEDays Talks via Zoom, running from 10-17 November.

I was invited to speak on two panels  (a) AFRICA, ASIA AND SOUTH AMERICA (3A) : BUILDING STRONG SOUTH-SOUTH PARTNERSHIPS AFTER THE COVID-19 on 12 November and (b) US - CHINA : IS-IT THE PARADIGM SHIFT ? on 17 November.

Due to a last-minute hospitalization, I was unable to make the first panel. My Speaking Notes are here. Download MEDays 12.11.2020 - 3 As Cooperation

I was, however, fortunate to be able to take part on the second panel as scheduled. The full panel discussion is now available on YouTube. My Speaking Notes are here for reference. Download MEDays - US-China - 17.11.2020

Posted at 11:50 PM in Africa, Asia, Banking, Biotechnology, BRICS, China Business, China's politics, China's Rise, Climate Change , Consumption, Currencies, Current Affairs, Defense, Democracy, Denuclearization, Development_, e-Commerce, Economics, Economy, Emerging Economies, EU, Eurasia, Europe, Finance, Future, Geopolitics, Globalization, Healthcare, Hong Kong, Innovation, Investment , Japan, Life, Lifestyle, Manufacturing , Military, North Korea, Pakistan, Politics, Population, Russia, Science, South China Sea, Sustainable Development, Taiwan, Technology, United States, Vietnam, Warfare, World | | Comments (0)

October 09, 2020

A post-Trump era; Hong Kong 2020 and beyond

A presentation to the EGN Founding Chairmen Group, Hong Kong SAR on 12 October 2020.

Download A Post-Trump era - HK 2020 and beyond  

 

Posted at 10:20 PM in Africa, Asia, Banking, BRICS, Central America, China Business, China's politics, China's Rise, Climate Change , Currencies, Current Affairs, Defense, Democracy, Development_, e-Commerce, Economics, Emerging Economies, Energy, EU, Eurasia, Europe, Finance, Future, Geopolitics, Globalization, Healthcare, Hong Kong, ICT, Innovation, Investment , Latin America, Life, Middle Class, Military, North Korea, Politics, Regional development, Science, South China Sea, Southeast Asia, Sustainable Development, Taiwan, Technology, Terrorism , UK, United States, Urbanization, Vietnam, Warfare, World | | Comments (0)

September 10, 2020

The reality of China Scare and the resultant Age of Disorder

In an across-the-board analysis dated 14 October, 2019 for a controversial online platform, the Unz Review, Godfree Roberts delineates China's rapid and alarming catchup with the United States, including ascendance and even dominance in a panoply of great power metrics including Government, Leadership, Economy, Infrastructure, Geopolitics, Finance, Science, Technology, Trade, Social Indicators, Education, Law and Order, Faith in Future, Socio-Economic Ecology; Politics, Defense, Morale, and Long-term Economic Ascendancy.

The analysis, however, fails to acknowledge the unyielding dominance of the greenback, America's military sophistication and global reach, its leadership on the frontier of science and technology, its global network of allies, and the soft power of the "City upon a Hill". Nearly two and a half centuries of American ascendance and exceptionalism have driven a strong sense of self-denial that a "dictatorial" China, a once-backward country for well over a century, cannot be allowed to share power with the United States imbued with a "manifest destiny". 

Nevertheless, much of the prognosis has given substance to American paranoia or hysteria that an emerging  "Frankenstein" (in Secretary of State Mike Pomeo's words) with a diametrically-opposed value system and an alien civilization is setting out to destroy the US-led global liberal order. Across the political aisle, there is American consensus that China's rise must now be pushed back, contained, and thwarted across-the-board, at all costs, before it is too late. The outcome is the increasingly decoupling from China, protectionism, de-globalization, and the return of the rule of the jungle. 

China is deeply and intricately embedded in the whole world's supply and value chain, exemplified by concentration of the world's largest container ports on its shores. Some 124 countries across the globe have China as the largest trading partner, compared with 76 countries with the US. Many products, components and processes are globally diversified but with China as the central hub. Vigorous anti-China decoupling and fragmentation are massively disruptive to markets and economies worldwide.

The Age of Disorder has arrived, according to a Long-term Asset Return Study by Deutsche Bank, London dated 8 September, 2020, referring to upheavals of epochal US-China rivalry, a struggling European Union, Covid-19 impacts, rising inequality, worsening demographics, inter-generational divide, and climate change coming up close and personal. US strangling notwithstanding, the study expects that in nominal terms, China's economy will overtake the US by end decade, or thereabouts (p.6). 

Be that as it may, too much doom and gloom may be premature. The outcome of the coming US presidential election, China's next Five Year Plan (2021-25), recovery from Covid-19, coming-into-being of the world's largest free-trade bloc - the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the advent of 5G and "Internet of Things", emerging Eurasian economic and geopolitical gravitas, and maturing of international relations, all could recalibrate how the next new normal is going to work. 

Posted at 05:07 PM in Africa, Asia, Banking, Biotechnology, Brexit, BRICS, China Business, China's politics, China's Rise, Climate Change , Consumption, Currencies, Current Affairs, Defense, Democracy, Development_, e-Commerce, Economics, Economy, Emerging Economies, Energy, EU, Eurasia, Europe, Finance, Food and Water Security, Future, Gas, Geopolitics, Globalization, Healthcare, Hong Kong, Innovation, Investment , Japan, Lifestyle, Manufacturing , Middle Class, Middle East, North Korea, Politics, Regional development, Russia, South China Sea, Sustainable Development, Taiwan, Technology, United States, Urbanization, World | | Comments (0)

June 10, 2020

Andrew's June 2020 Newsletter

(My quarterly Newsletter goes out to some 8,500 professional contacts worldwide. The following is my June 2020 issue. Back numbers may be accessed under What's New on this website) 

Greetings! 
 
In just a few months, the world has changed almost beyond recognition. The Coronavirus pandemic has revealed the true colors of nations and peoples. It has changed how lives and businesses can be conducted. It has intensified an epochal contest for global power leading to a face-off between the world's Superpower (with its liberal world order) and its perceived challenger, with increasing risks of miscalculations.
 
Hong Kong, where I am based, is right at the center of these shocks. As if that is not enough, Beijing's unilateral introduction of a national security law for Hong Kong rattles the dynamics underpinning One Country Two Systems. This unique status has been an incalculable boon not only for China and the Special Administrative Region but for the rest of the world. Now the United States is threatening unspecified sanctions which could undermine Hong Kong's survival as a global financial center. 
 
Amidst the doom and gloom, the following may hopefully offer some fresh perspectives in seeing through the smoke and mirrors.

 

Hong Kong

 

USA-China tussle: geo-strategically the report on the death of Hong Kong's autonomy is somewhat exaggerated (A dissection of what is behind Hong Kong's national security law) 

China's HK national security law threatens HK's One Country Two Systems? (Live interview on WION TV) 

Hong Kong leader slams ‘double standards’ on national security, cites US unrest (Live interview on Press TV) 

Hong Kong govt. warns removing US special status is "double-edged sword"  (Live interview on Press TV) 

Hong Kong’s leader reaffirms new law would not harm rights, freedoms (Live interview on Press TV) 

Should Hong Kong civil servants be loyal to Beijing? (A RTHK Backchat discussion) 

National Security Law and personal freedom (A RTHK Backchat discussion) 

Is the US posture on Hong Kong's national security law part of the anti-China "cold war"? (Live interview on TRT World) 

China's controversial security law becomes a flash point in Hong Kong (Live TV interview on WION of India and CCTV background documentary) 

Pompeo threatens China on impinging on Hong Kong's autonomy and freedoms (Live interview on Press TV)

A "mid-term" Hong Kong Government ministerial reshuffle (A RTHK Backchat discussion) 

US-China great power rivalry

Strategic US-China decoupling in the tech sector (A Hinrich Foundation report) 
The Struggle for Power: U.S.-China Relations in the 21st Century (A prelude to a new US defining strategy)
US China "Cold War" and the Coronavirus Crisis (Live interview on Press TV) 
Where is China? - A perspective (A multi-angle look on multi-media) 
 
Coronavirus crisis
 
Covid-19 Crisis - Can China bounce back? (Feature report in The Global Analyst)
Is China to blame for Covid-19 pandemic?  (An in-depth analysis) 
RSF complains to UN about Coronavirus press freedom  (Live TV panel discussion on Indus News) 
US-China sprat over Coronavirus pandemic (Live interview on Indus News)
China raps Trump over Chinese virus tweet (Live interview on Press TV) 
China offers help to US to deal with Coronavirus (Live interview on Press TV) 
Economic impact of Covid-19 on global economy (Live TV interview on Ren TV of Moscow) 
Is the world prepared for a looming Covid-19 pandemic? (Live panel discussion on Indus News) 
 
World Order
 
China has created tech ‘new world order’ in Big data and AI (A Future Today Institute tech-trend report)
 
 
Energy
 
 
History 
 
Book Review of "The Last Journey Of The San Bao Eunuch, Admiral Zheng He" (Book review invited by author)
 
7th International Conference on Eurasian Politics & Society in Lisbon, Portugal postponed to 24-25 September 2020 
 
Subject to exigencies, I am scheduled to present at the above international conference my full-length Paper How will Eurasian Integration of China's Belt & Road Initiative fare in defending a Multipolar World Order. Should this materialize, I will upload my Paper and PowerPoint presentation to this website afterwards. 
 
Cheer up and chill out

A repertoire of inspirational music, videos, songs and words. There is also a collection in Chinese.

Invitation for expressions of interest in investment opportunities

An upended world abounds with fresh BUY and SELL investment opportunities on many fronts across the globe, including new technologies, new markets and new businesses. If you wish to avail yourself of my business network worldwide, please drop me a line on a strictly no-commitment basis initially. 

Consultation services

Please email me at andrewkpleung@gmail.com or text my Hong Kong mobile +852 98198987.  I can also be reached on Skype at andrew.k.p.leung, LinkedIn at andrewleunginternational, Whatsapp at (852) 98198987, WeChat at Andrewkpleung, Facebook at andrewkinpongleung, and Twitter at @Andrewkpleung

Speaking and lecturing invitations

I am open to invitations or proposals for speaking engagements, visiting lectures and tailor-made electives as a visiting/adjunct professor. 

Business networking and speaking platform in Hong Kong

As an Advisor to the Denmark-based Executives' Global Network Hong Kong, I welcome your suggestion of a suitable speaker for an EGN event in Hong Kong. This will be entirely at our own cost with acknowledgement of your support, provided that we are not asked to cover any speaking fee, travel or accommodation expenses.

RSS feed and weblinks

My postings are regularly uploaded under my three blogs CHINAwatch, Publications and What is New on www.andrewleunginternationalconsultants.com  A collection of leading China media and research sites can be found under China Links.

Please feel free to save my website on your computer, laptop, tablet, Blackberry, iPhone or iPad as a reference resource. If you wish instant access as soon as my postings appear, just click on “Subscribe to this blog’s feed” under RSS Feed on top of the right-hand column of each blog. Select the appropriate Google feed option. It is free of charge.  

This newsletter is uploaded to my website here. You may save it for reference or reading at leisure and to share it on Facebook, LinkedIn, WhatsApp, Twitter or other social media devices.

Courtesies

I look forward to your guidance, advice, comments, suggestions, and criticisms. You may share the above contents with colleagues or friends. You are also welcome to publish any of them with full attribution. 

If you think that I may add value to your endeavors in any way, please let me know how I may help.  If for any reason you do not wish to receive my emails, just ask me to delete your name from my databank permanently. 

Best personal regards, 

Andrew K.P. Leung, SBS, FRSA

International and Independent China Strategist

www.andrewleunginternationalconsultants.com  

Positions  

Chairman and CEO, Andrew Leung International Consultants and Investments Limited
(Founded in London, now re-incorporated in Hong Kong; name changed from Andrew Leung International Consultants Limited as from 10 July, 2017) 
China Futures Fellow, Berkshire Publishing Group, Massachusetts, USA (2011-13)
Brain Trust member, The Evian Group (global think-tank), Lausanne, Switzerland
Gerson Lehrman Group (Global Experts) Council Member
International Expert, Reuters Insight Community of Experts, Thomson Reuters
Senior Analyst, Wikistrat , a cloud-sourced global strategic consultancy based in Washington D.C.
Senior Consultant, MEC International (a UK-based global strategic energy consultancy) 
Distinguished Contributor, Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance (ATCA) (global think-tank)
Certified Sustainable Development Planner, World Institute of Sustainable Development Planners
Fellow of the Royal Society for the Encouragement of Arts, Manufactures and Commerce (FRSA)
Elected Member, Royal Society for Asian Affairs
Think-tank Research Fellow, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai Campus, PRC (14.4.2017-13.4.2020) 
Advisory Board member, The e-Centre , European Centre for e-Commerce and Internet Law, Vienna 
Honorary Adviser, International Institute of Management (IIM) 
Advisory Board member, The Global Analyst, India
Honorary President, China Hong Kong Economic and Trading International Association (from 28 March, 2016) 
Global Commercial Agent, Changsha City, China
Hong Kong Advisory Board member, Denmark-based Executive Global Network (EGN)
Visiting Professor, London Metropolitan University Business School 
Governing Council Member, King’s College London, UK (2004-2010)
Advisory Board member, China Policy Institute, Nottingham University, UK (2005 -2010)
Visiting Professor, Sun Yat-sen University Business School, China (2005-10)
Founding Chairman, China Group, Institute of Directors City Branch, London, UK (2006-2010)
Vice Chairman, 48 Group Club, UK (2008-2010)
Committee Member of RSA, London Region, UK (2006-2010)
Included in UK's Who's Who since 2002
Awarded the Silver Bauhinia Star (SBS) in the July 2005 Hong Kong Honours List 

Posted at 11:38 AM in Asia, Banking, Biotechnology, Books, Business promotion, China Business, China's politics, China's Rise, Cities, Climate Change , Consumption, Currencies, Current Affairs, Defense, Democracy, Development_, e-Commerce, Economy, Emerging Economies, Energy, EU, Europe, Finance, Food and Drink, Food and Water Security, Future, Gas, Geopolitics, Globalization, Healthcare, History, Hong Kong, Innovation, Investment , Japan, Manufacturing , Middle Class, North Korea, Population, Regional development, Russia, Science, Sustainable Development, Taiwan, Technology, Television, United States, Urbanization, Vietnam, World | | Comments (0)

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