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December 26, 2022

Andrew's January 2023 Newsletter

(My quarterly Newsletter goes out to some 8,000 professional contacts worldwide. The following is my January 2023 issue. Back numbers may be accessed under What's New on my website) 

Greetings! May I first wish you and your loved ones a Happy Holiday Season and a rewarding 2023!

As we experience some festive relaxation, dark clouds continue to gather on the horizon. How would the Ukraine war pan out, with Russia losing or regaining the upper hand? Is a new multipolar World Order beginning to take shape, or will American hegemony continue to endure? Would US-China relations stabilize into a new normal, flashpoints like Taiwan notwithstanding? How would China's population, a fifth of humanity, cope with a sudden transition from a "dynamic zero-Covid" strategy to "living with the virus", as the pandemic appears to morph into a less deadly endemic like many other countries? 

Testing uncertainties remain. The following may hopefully offer some useful perspectives, including sunshine in the horizon.  

World Order

How Xi’s Saudi Arabia visit shows rise of new world order beyond US hegemony (Op-ed in the South China Morning Post)

China-Arab ties enter new era Op-ed in China Daily national and global version; republished on Rome-based World Geostrategic Insights.

Momentum building for more inclusive global order  (Op-ed in China Daily, national and global version). The Hong Kong version is titled US still mired in a 'Cold War' mindset, but the tide's turning Also published in Chinese by Hong Kong's Chinese media and by Rome-based World Geostrategic Insights in French, Spanish and Russian.

Russia's Medvedev met with President Xi alluding to emergence of new world order?  (Exclusive live interview on RT) 

China, including HK, could turn ‘winter of despair’ into ‘spring of hope’ (Op-ed in China Daily) Republished with attribution by World Geostrategic Insights in French, Spanish, Russian, Arabic and by Chinese media outlets (some abridged): 來論｜冬天來了，春天還會遠嗎？; 文匯論壇 | 香港如何在全球變局中轉危為機？ 

The West is misreading China’s Party Congress at the peril of world stability (Op-ed in Rome-based World Geostrategic Insights), republished in French, Spanish, Russian, and Arabic. Also appeared in China Daily

Cambridge Poll shows 70% of World Now Supports China (An analysis) 

How the World Order is transforming into a Multipolar Contest for Global Power (and if a Brave New World is possible?) (An 80-slide PowerPoint presentation) 

China urges US to abandon its bullying to reign in the Asian country’s development (Live discussion on Press TV)

Xi: China opposes interfering in other countries' domestic politics, opposes double standards (Interview with Press TV)

Forum MEDays 2022, Tangier, Morocco, 2-5 November; "From Crises to Crises; Towards a New World Order?" (Conference highlights) 

China's Party Congress 

Deciphering China's 2022 National Party Congress (Live TV interview with WION, India) 

China's ruling party approves sweeping reshuffle at end of week-long gathering in Beijing (Live interview with Press TV)

President Xi opening the Party Congress - Hong Kong and Taiwan (Live interview with WION TV of India) 

China's Party Congress underway (Live interview with NDTV of India)

20th Party Congress - Common Prosperity (RTHK Backchat) 

应抓住世界百年未有之大变局加快粤港澳大湾区融合发展  (Chinese transcript of a talk "Seizing the opportunity of century to accelerate Greater Bay Area integration") 

China's Covid strategy

Is China hiding its COVID-19 numbers? (TV panel discussion on TRT World) 

China: dilemma of Zero-Covid strategy (Live TV interview with WION TV of India)

Is China's Covid model broken (Live interview with India Today TV) 

China's Protests

Rare anti-Xi protest in Beijing days before China's Communist Party meet (Live TV panel discussion on India Today TV) 

What actually happened outside the Manchester Chinese consulate (Live interview with RT)

Taiwan

President Xi doubles down on Taiwan; praises Hong Kong for emerging from chaos to governance (Interview with Press TV) 

Ukrainian delegation visits Taiwan - why and wherefore (Live interview with RT)

North Korea

North Korea says needs indigenous missile program for self-defense (Live interview with Press TV)

North Korea: Missile tests self-defense against direct US military threats (Live panel discussion with Press TV)

Cheer up and chill out

Experiencing Tangier, Rabat, Chefchaouen (Blue City), and Casablanca (A music video clip) 

I have added a new entry "Enjoying Nature to the Full" on Song Dynasty poet Lu You (陆游) and some other inspirational translations to my repertoire of inspirational music, videos, songs and words.

Speaking and lecturing opportunities

I will be having a month-long sojourn in London in March 2023.  During my stay, I remain open to invitations or proposals for interviews, speaking engagements, visiting lectures or tailor-made electives as a visiting/adjunct professor. 

International investment opportunities

I have joined the International Advisory Board of Silk Road Partners, an international investment firm. See its corporate profile. Mr Yves Leterme, ex-Prime Minister of Belgium (November 2009 to December 2011) has recently joined the International Advisory Board. 

If you are interested in getting in touch with us, please give me a shout. 

Consultation services

Please email me at andrewkpleung@gmail.com or text my Hong Kong mobile +852 98198987.  I can also be reached on Skype at andrew.k.p.leung, LinkedIn at andrewleunginternational, Whatsapp at (852) 98198987, WeChat at Andrewkpleung, Facebook at andrewkinpongleung, and Twitter at @Andrewkpleung

Business networking and speaking platform in Hong Kong

As an Advisor to the Denmark-based Executives' Global Network Hong Kong, I welcome your suggestion of a suitable speaker for an EGN event in Hong Kong. This will be entirely at our own cost with acknowledgement of your support, provided that we are not asked to cover any speaking fee, travel or accommodation expenses.

RSS feed and weblinks

My postings are regularly uploaded under my three blogs CHINAwatch, Publications and What is New on wwwandrewleunginternationalconsultants.com  A collection of leading China media and research sites can be found under China Links.

Please feel free to save my website on your computer, laptop, tablet, iPhone or iPad as a reference resource. If you wish instant access as soon as my postings appear, just click on “Subscribe to this blog’s feed” under RSS Feed on top of the right-hand column of each blog. Select the appropriate Google feed option. It is free of charge.  

This newsletter is uploaded to my website here.You may save it for reference or reading at leisure. You are free to share it on Facebook, LinkedIn, WhatsApp, Twitter or other social media devices.

Courtesies

I look forward to your guidance, advice, comments, suggestions, and criticisms. You may share the above contents with colleagues or friends. You are also welcome to publish any of them with full attribution. 

If you think that I may add value to your endeavors in any way, please let me know how I may help.  If for any reason you do not wish to receive my emails, just ask me to delete your name from my databank permanently. 

Best personal regards, 

Andrew K. P. Leung, SBS, FRSA               
International and Independent China Strategist
www.andrewleunginternationalconsultants.com 

Positions

Chairman and CEO, Andrew Leung International Consultants and Investments Limited
(Founded in London, now re-incorporated in Hong Kong; name changed from Andrew Leung International Consultants Limited as from 10 July, 2017) 
China Futures Fellow, Berkshire Publishing Group, Massachusetts, USA (2011-13)
Brain Trust member, The Evian Group (global think-tank), Lausanne, Switzerland
Gerson Lehrman Group (Global Experts) Council Member
International Expert, Reuters Insight Community of Experts, Thomson Reuters
Senior Analyst, Wikistrat , a cloud-sourced global strategic consultancy based in Washington D.C.
Senior Consultant, MEC International (a UK-based global strategic energy consultancy) 
Distinguished Contributor, Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance (ATCA) (global think-tank)
Certified Sustainable Development Planner, World Institute of Sustainable Development Planners
Fellow of the Royal Society for the Encouragement of Arts, Manufactures and Commerce (FRSA)
Elected Member, Royal Society for Asian Affairs
Think-tank Research Fellow, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai Campus, PRC (14.4.2017-13.4.2020) 
International Advisory Board Member, Silk Road Partners
Advisory Board member, The e-Centre , European Centre for e-Commerce and Internet Law, Vienna 
Honorary Adviser, International Institute of Management (IIM) 
Advisory Board member, The Global Analyst, India
Honorary President, China Hong Kong Economic and Trading International Association (from 28 March, 2016) 
Global Commercial Agent, Changsha City, China
Hong Kong Advisory Board member, Denmark-based Executive Global Network (EGN)
Visiting Professor, London Metropolitan University Business School 
Governing Council Member, King’s College London, UK (2004-2010)
Advisory Board member, China Policy Institute, Nottingham University, UK (2005 -2010)
Visiting Professor, Sun Yat-sen University Business School, China (2005-10)
Founding Chairman, China Group, Institute of Directors City Branch, London, UK (2006-2010)
Vice Chairman, 48 Group Club, UK (2008-2010)
Committee Member of RSA, London Region, UK (2006-2010)
Included in UK's Who's Who since 2002
Awarded the Silver Bauhinia Star (SBS) in the July 2005 Hong Kong Honours List   

Posted at 07:11 PM in Asia, Banking, Books, BRICS, Business promotion, China Business, China's politics, China's Rise, Cities, Climate Change , Consumption, Currencies, Current Affairs, Defense, Democracy, Development_, e-Commerce, Economics, Emerging Economies, Energy, EU, Europe, Finance, Food and Water Security, Future, Gas, Geopolitics, Globalization, Healthcare, Hong Kong, Innovation, Investment , Japan, Life, Manufacturing , Middle Class, Middle East, Military, North Korea, Population, Regional development, Russia, Science, Sustainable Development, Taiwan, Technology, Television, United States, Urbanization, World | | Comments (0)

November 21, 2022

Forum MEDays 2022, Tangier, Morocco, 2-5 November; "From Crises to Crises; Towards a New World Order?"

The MEDays Forum is organized by the Amadeus Institute, a Moroccan think tank based in Rabat and chaired by Brahim Fassi Fihri under the patronage of King Mohamed VI. It is considered by some observers to be the African Davos, as it is attended by some African heads of state and senior policy advisors including those from Western countries. The 14th Edition was held in Tangiers from 2 to 5 November 2022.

My attendance as a sponsored Speaker included speaking engagements on three separate sessions: Day 3 - Round Table 3 - Global Energy Governance: New World Order, New Energy Order?; Day 3 Session 8 - Doing business in Africa in times of crises: How can China contribute; Day 4 - Session 10 - US-China relations and tensions in the Indo-Pacific region: Is a Pax Sino-Americana possible in this fractured world? Details of the Forum program may be accessed here.

I reported on my interventions on Day 4 - US-China Relations in an Op-ed published by China Daily on 20 November 2022.

Following are some images of my attendance at the Forum:

  IMG_2468 IMG_2475 IMG_2604 IMG_2564




 

Posted at 08:58 PM in Africa, Asia, China Business, China's Rise, Climate Change , Consumption, Covid-19, Current Affairs, Development_, e-Commerce, Economy, Emerging Economies, Energy, Eurasia, Europe, Food and Water Security, Gas, Geopolitics, Globalization, History, Hong Kong, ICT, Innovation, Investment , Manufacturing , Middle Class, Middle East, Military, North Korea, Pakistan, Politics, Population, Public health , Regional development, Russia, South China Sea, South Korea, Southeast Asia, Sustainable Development, Taiwan, Technology, Turkey, UK, Ukraine , United States, Urbanization, Warfare, World | | Comments (0)

October 18, 2022

How the World Order is transforming into a Multipolar Contest for Global Power (and if a Brave New World is possible?)

PowerPoint presentation to EGN Founding Chairmen Group on 7 October 2022 

Download How the World Order is transforming into a Multipolar Contest for Global Power (Revised)

The same presentation, with an additional slide on the latest CPC Party Congress, was made to the EGN Pioneers Group on 18 October 2022.

Download How the World Order is transforming into a Multipolar Contest for Global Power (Revised) (Updated) 

Posted at 12:38 PM in Afghanistan, Africa, Arctic, Asia, BRICS, China's Rise, Climate Change , Consumption, Covid-19, Current Affairs, Defense, Democracy, Development_, e-Commerce, Emerging Economies, Energy, EU, Eurasia, Europe, Gas, Geopolitics, Globalization, Hong Kong, ICT, India, Japan, Latin America, Manufacturing , Middle Class, Middle East, Military, North Korea, Pakistan, Politics, Russia, South China Sea, South Korea, Southeast Asia, Sustainable Development, Taiwan, Technology, Turkey, UK, Ukraine , United States, Urbanization, Warfare, World | | Comments (0)

September 26, 2022

Andrew's October 2022 Newsletter

(My quarterly Newsletter goes out to some 8,000 professional contacts worldwide. The following is my October 2022 issue. Back numbers may be accessed under What's New on my website) 

Greetings!

The world we have known for decades has now been turned upside down. A sense of uncertainty, anxiety and foreboding permeates everywhere. The Ukraine War is dragging on to a shivering European winter. Hell-bent on racking a revanchist Russia, it is threatening to engulf the rest of the world with nuclear Armageddon. Historic inflation and Fed rate hikes are ravaging economies across the globe. Extreme drought and weather conditions bear witness to worsening global Climate Change. Far-right neo-Nazi and neo-Fascist political parties are having a field day in hitherto liberal European democracies. All these are set on the grand stage of a no-holds-barred smokeless war of titans mounted by the United States, the extant world hegemon, against China as its perceived challenger, at the expense of collateral disruptions in four corners of the globe.

To make some sense of all this chaos, the following may offer some helpful perspectives.

Geopolitics
Can SCO summit lead to a new world order? (Live TV panel on TRT World) 
Will NATO’s new strategic concept work? (Live debate on Inside Story with Aljazeera English) 
Russia's war games with China - implications (Live TV panel discussion on TRT World) 
Implications of the Biden-Xi 2-hour 17-minute talk (Hong Kong Today on RTHK radio morning news) 
US arms sales increase under Biden (Press TV news report)

 

China
China could turn "winter of despair" into "spring of hope" (Op-ed in China Daily (English) republished in  Chinese, French, Spanish, Russian and Arabic
China's latest China's troubled economy Q2  2022 (Exclusive live TV interview on Aljazeera English News, Washington D.C.)        
Why are Chinese companies leaving US stock markets? (A commentary)
Sichuan earthquake and why is it so important (Exclusive live TV interview on TRT World)  
 
Ukraine 
How the Ukraine War changes Global Geopolitics (Op-ed in World Geostrategic Insights) republished in French, Spanish, Russian, and Arabic
How the Ukrainian Crisis redefines Eurasian geopolitics in a changed world (An in-depth international conference PowerPoint presentation) 
 
Taiwan
Pelosi's visit to Taiwan Spiking Tensions Between the U.S. and China - whys and wherefores (Exclusive interview with Rome-based World Geostrategic Insights) republished in French, Spanish, Russian and Arabic.
Pelosi's Taiwan visit and US-China relations (broadcast in Persian) (Pre-recorded interview in English broadcast in Persian on Iran International, only in last segment from time counter 38:03) 
US military exercises in Taiwan Strait in coming weeks (Exclusive live TV interview on Aljazeera English Channel)
Taiwan faces fallout of Pelosi visit (Live TV interview on WION) 
Implications of Nancy Pelosi's Taiwan visit (Exclusive Live TV interview on RT) 
Nancy Pelosi's Taiwan visit explained (dubbed in Russian) (Pre-recorded TV interview broadcast in Russian on Ren TV) 
 
Japan
 
North Korea
 
Middle East and Africa
Biden's plan for the Middle East (Pre-recorded English interview broadcast in Russian on IZ TV) 
 
Hong Kong
Priorities and challenges for the HKSAR new administration (Backchat on Radio Television Hong Kong (RTHK)
 
Forthcoming conferences

As an invited sponsored Speaker, I will be appearing in person at the 14th MEDays Forum to be held in Tangier, Morocco, from 2 - 5 November, 2022 on the theme of "From Crisis to Crisis: Towards a New Global Order?" I will be sharing my presentations in quarterly newsletters in due course.  

Speaking and lecturing opportunities

Separately, I am planning a month-long sojourn in London before summer 2023.  During my stay in London, I remain open to invitations or proposals for interviews, speaking engagements, visiting lectures or tailor-made electives as a visiting/adjunct professor. 

International investment opportunities

I have accepted the invitation to join the International Advisory Board of Silk Road Partners, an international investment firm. See its corporate profile. If you are interested in getting in touch with us, please give me a shout. 

Consultation services

Please email me at andrewkpleung@gmail.com or text my Hong Kong mobile +852 98198987.  I can also be reached on Skype at andrew.k.p.leung, LinkedIn at andrewleunginternational, Whatsapp at (852) 98198987, WeChat at Andrewkpleung, Facebook at andrewkinpongleung, and Twitter at @Andrewkpleung

Business networking and speaking platform in Hong Kong

As an Advisor to the Denmark-based Executives' Global Network Hong Kong, I welcome your suggestion of a suitable speaker for an EGN event in Hong Kong. This will be entirely at our own cost with acknowledgement of your support, provided that we are not asked to cover any speaking fee, travel or accommodation expenses.

RSS feed and weblinks

My postings are regularly uploaded under my three blogs CHINAwatch, Publications and What is New on wwwandrewleunginternationalconsultants.com  A collection of leading China media and research sites can be found under China Links.

Please feel free to save my website on your computer, laptop, tablet, iPhone or iPad as a reference resource. If you wish instant access as soon as my postings appear, just click on “Subscribe to this blog’s feed” under RSS Feed on top of the right-hand column of each blog. Select the appropriate Google feed option. It is free of charge.  

This newsletter is uploaded to my website here. You may save it for reference or reading at leisure. You are free to share it on Facebook, LinkedIn, WhatsApp, Twitter or other social media devices.

Cheer up and chill out

I have added some more inspirational translations to my repertoire of inspirational music, videos, songs and words.

Courtesies

I look forward to your guidance, advice, comments, suggestions, and criticisms. You may share the above contents with colleagues or friends. You are also welcome to publish any of them with full attribution. 

If you think that I may add value to your endeavors in any way, please let me know how I may help.  If for any reason you do not wish to receive my emails, just ask me to delete your name from my databank permanently. 

Best personal regards, 

Andrew K. P. Leung, SBS, FRSA               
International and Independent China Strategist
www.andrewleunginternationalconsultants.com 

Positions

Chairman and CEO, Andrew Leung International Consultants and Investments Limited
(Founded in London, now re-incorporated in Hong Kong; name changed from Andrew Leung International Consultants Limited as from 10 July, 2017) 
China Futures Fellow, Berkshire Publishing Group, Massachusetts, USA (2011-13)
Brain Trust member, The Evian Group (global think-tank), Lausanne, Switzerland
Gerson Lehrman Group (Global Experts) Council Member
International Expert, Reuters Insight Community of Experts, Thomson Reuters
Senior Analyst, Wikistrat , a cloud-sourced global strategic consultancy based in Washington D.C.
Senior Consultant, MEC International (a UK-based global strategic energy consultancy) 
Distinguished Contributor, Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance (ATCA) (global think-tank)
Certified Sustainable Development Planner, World Institute of Sustainable Development Planners
Fellow of the Royal Society for the Encouragement of Arts, Manufactures and Commerce (FRSA)
Elected Member, Royal Society for Asian Affairs
Think-tank Research Fellow, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai Campus, PRC (14.4.2017-13.4.2020) 
International Advisory Board Member, Silk Road Partners
Advisory Board member, The e-Centre , European Centre for e-Commerce and Internet Law, Vienna 
Honorary Adviser, International Institute of Management (IIM) 
Advisory Board member, The Global Analyst, India
Honorary President, China Hong Kong Economic and Trading International Association (from 28 March, 2016) 
Global Commercial Agent, Changsha City, China
Hong Kong Advisory Board member, Denmark-based Executive Global Network (EGN)
Visiting Professor, London Metropolitan University Business School 
Governing Council Member, King’s College London, UK (2004-2010)
Advisory Board member, China Policy Institute, Nottingham University, UK (2005 -2010)
Visiting Professor, Sun Yat-sen University Business School, China (2005-10)
Founding Chairman, China Group, Institute of Directors City Branch, London, UK (2006-2010)
Vice Chairman, 48 Group Club, UK (2008-2010)
Committee Member of RSA, London Region, UK (2006-2010)
Included in UK's Who's Who since 2002
Awarded the Silver Bauhinia Star (SBS) in the July 2005 Hong Kong Honours List     

Posted at 11:30 PM in Asia, Banking, Biotechnology, BRICS, China Business, China's politics, China's Rise, Cities, Climate Change , Consumption, Currencies, Current Affairs, Defense, Democracy, Development_, e-Commerce, Economy, Emerging Economies, Energy, EU, Europe, Finance, Food and Water Security, Future, Gas, Geopolitics, Globalization, Healthcare, History, Hong Kong, Innovation, Investment , Japan, Life, Manufacturing , Middle Class, North Korea, Population, Regional development, Russia, Science, Sustainable Development, Taiwan, Technology, Television, United States, Urbanization, Vietnam, Web/Tech, World | | Comments (0)

September 16, 2022

Can SCO summit lead to a new world order?

Live TV panel discussion on TRT World of 15 September 2022.

Posted at 06:25 PM in Afghanistan, Africa, Asia, BRICS, China's Rise, Climate Change , Currencies, Current Affairs, Defense, Democracy, Development_, e-Commerce, Economics, Emerging Economies, Energy, EU, Eurasia, Europe, Future, Gas, Geopolitics, Globalization, Healthcare, Hong Kong, India, Japan, Latin America, Manufacturing , Middle East, Military, North Korea, Pakistan, Politics, Regional development, Russia, South China Sea, Southeast Asia, Taiwan, Technology, Television, Turkey, UK, Ukraine , United States, Warfare, World | | Comments (0)

September 08, 2022

US arms sales increase under Biden

News report of Press TV dated 6 September 2022 (including a brief excerpt of a pre-recorded interview with me from time-counter 03:30) 

Posted at 12:28 PM in Afghanistan, Asia, China's Rise, Current Affairs, Defense, Denuclearization, Energy, EU, Eurasia, Europe, Gas, Geopolitics, Military, North Korea, Pakistan, Politics, Regional development, Russia, South China Sea, South Korea, Southeast Asia, Taiwan, Technology, UK, Ukraine , United States, Vietnam, Warfare, World | | Comments (0)

July 17, 2022

How the Ukrainian Crisis redefines Eurasian geopolitics in a changed world

A PowerPoint presentation (via Zoom) at the 9th Annual International Conference on Eurasian Politics and Society (IEPAS 2022) from 13-16 July, 2022 held at St John University, York, UK under the aegis of the Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN).

Download How the Ukrainian Crisis redefines Eurasia Geopolitics

Download IEPAS2022-Conference Programme and Abstract Book (with minor amendments)

 

 

Posted at 03:20 PM in Africa, Asia, Banking, BRICS, China Business, China's politics, China's Rise, Climate Change , Consumption, Currencies, Current Affairs, Defense, Democracy, Denuclearization, Development_, e-Commerce, Economics, Economy, Emerging Economies, Energy, EU, Eurasia, Europe, Finance, Food and Water Security, Future, Gas, Geopolitics, Globalization, Healthcare, History, Hong Kong, Innovation, Investment , Manufacturing , Middle Class, Middle East, Military, North Korea, Population, Regional development, Russia, South China Sea, Sustainable Development, Taiwan, Technology, United States, Urbanization, Vietnam, World | | Comments (0)

June 05, 2022

How the Ukraine war is likely to play out in global geopolitics

At the start of the War on Ukraine, President Putin initially seemed to be losing his grip. Massive losses of armors and combatants were incurred with little territorial or other strategic gains.  As a result, there was a prevailing sense of triumphalism in Washington and the US-led NATO coalition that Putin's "adventurism" has spectacularly backfired. 

The Western commentariat has been busy speculating on a looming ignominious Russian defeat, the emergence of a more unified Ukraine, a more united Europe and NATO rallying behind America's global anti-Russia leadership, a probable collapse of Putin's regime, and even his eventual consignment to a health sanitorium. 

For good measure, America's China strategists were quietly rubbing their hands that finally the United States would now be placed in a much better geopolitical position to concentrate on subjugating China, the “most serious long-term challenge to the international order”. "China is the only country with both the intent to reshape the international order and, increasingly, the economic, diplomatic, military and technological power to do it", according to Secretary of State Antony Blinken's China policy address at George Washington University on 26 May, 2022, his velvet-glove rhetoric of not wanting a Cold War against China notwithstanding. Some quarters in America's intelligentsia are even cheerleading for an enduring American Century. 

However, according to Ukraine President Zelensky, Russia has now controlled some 20% of Ukraine. This is seen as President Putin's "Plan B" focusing instead on occupying the Donbas region with a possible land bridge linking Russia-occupied Crimea. He has reaffirmed that Russia will not let up until all his goals are reached, banking on a prolonged war of attrition with Ukraine and its Western backers.  

Europe has been bearing the brunt of energy and food shortages with resultant price hikes, inflationary pressures and prolonged economic recession fears. Now over 100 days into the War, a sense of "Ukraine fatigue" in the West coalition is beginning to set in, according to Edward Luce of the Financial Times.

Gazprom has cut off at least 20 billion cubic meters of its annual gas supplies to customers in six European countries —Poland, Bulgaria, Finland, Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands, because they failed to make payments in rubles, a retaliatory demand President Vladimir Putin made back in March. This amounts to nearly 13% of the European Union's total annual gas imports from Russia.

While some of the European countries are wriggling out of these strictures by converting their Euro payment into Russian currency at Putin's designated Russian bank, replacing Russia's readily-available piped gas-supply through maritime oil or gas imports from the Middle East or America is unlikely to be a smooth logistical and economic solution.

Even as Europe is stocking up energy supplies in preparation for the coming winter, such precautions are unlikely to be adequate for households, let alone impact on Europe's economic activities. 

Additionally, Russia is the world’s largest exporter of wheat, accounting for more than 18% of international exports. In 2019, Russia and Ukraine together exported 25.4% of the world’s wheat, according to the Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC).

In addition, Russia exports nearly 20% of the world’s nitrogen fertilizers and, combined with its sanctioned neighbor Belarus, 40% of the world’s exported potassium. Most of these commodities are now off limits to the world’s farmers, thanks to Western sanctions and Russia’s recent fertilizer export restrictions. That's why the Chairman of the African Union, Senegal's President Macky Sall, called on President Putin on 3 June to ask for help freeing up Ukrainian grain exports. 

Meanwhile, energy and agricultural price hikes worldwide are boosting Russian coffers, strengthening instead of weakening the ruble.

After branding Saudi Arabia as a "pariah state" over the murder of journalist and Saudi dissident Jamal Khashoggi in 2018, President Biden's planned goodwill visit to meet Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is unlikely to yield adequate results, given Saudi Arabia's long-established prudent oil production and pricing policies. Moreover, windfall energy price hikes are a bonanza to the Saudis and other major oil producers in the Middle East.

Meanwhile, President Biden's domestic ratings are back in the doldrums, raising the odds of  losing Congress at mid-term elections in the autumn. Biden risks  becoming a "lame-duck" President for the remainder of his term. 

Nevertheless, the United States seems turbo-charged to segregate the world into two camps, framing this a contest of the century between democracy and authoritarianism.

However, notwithstanding draconian across-the-board sanctions and other restrictions, according to Wang Huiyao, founder and president of Center for China and Globalization (CCG) in Beijing, in 2021, "global trade hit a record $28.5 trillion, up 25% year-on-year and 13% higher than in 2019, before the pandemic struck. For all the talk of decoupling, U.S.-China trade swelled more than 20% last year, to $687.2 billion. Even with war in Ukraine, global trade is forecast to grow in 2022, albeit at a slower pace". "Cross-border investment also surpassed pre-pandemic levels last year, swelling to $1.65 trillion. China, in particular, is more integrated into the global economy than ever. In 2021, its foreign direct investment inflows rose by a third to an all-time high of $334 billion. In the first quarter of this year, they grew by more than 25% year-on-year". Click here "Globalization isn’t dead, It’s just not American anymore", Wang quipped. 

This shows how robust China's centrality remains in the world's inter-connected supply and value chains. After all, China remains the largest trading partner for 130 nations worldwide, compared with 57 for the United States. This centrality is being cemented by the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). This consists of ASEAN and its main trading partners including China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand, representing a third of the world's population and a third of the world's GDP. China is at the trading and logistical heart of it all. 

Beijing is doubling down on its global footprint. Witness the latest round of island-hoping in the South Pacific, signing a number of cooperation and law enforcement deals. 

This represents a further extension of China's massive Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), now being reformed to address concerns about debt-sustainability, transparency, corporate governance and environmental sustainability. The BRI already covers land and sea in Asia, Africa, Eurasia and Europe. Added to this is a "Polar Silk Road" capitalizing on the now more navigable, much shorter Artic Circle route linking the Pacific with the Atlantic, thanks to Climate Change, and a "Digital Silk Road" linking businesses across the globe including undersea fiber-optic telecommunication cables. 

A key strategic consideration of the BRI is to neutralize the threats posed by transit choke points such as Singapore's Malacca Strait controlled by America's Seventh Fleet. Energy and international trade, China's economic life-blood, can now transit overland, for example, through China-friendly countries in Eurasia, the Middle East, and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)., including the port of Gwadar. 

Save bipartisan unanimity to confront China, the United States remains a politically deeply-divided country, undermining its overarching geographical, natural resources, technological, cultural, financial and military dominance. It is now engaged on war on two fronts, against both Russia, the world's largest landmass, and China, the world's second largest economy, soon to become the world's largest. It is struggling with how best to keep using its "exorbitant privilege" of money-printing to prop up its economy without undermining global trust in the greenback. 

Meanwhile, China is pushing ahead with completing its own single-handedly-built Space Station by the end of this year. This will eventually replace the US-led 21-year old International Space Station (ISS), whose useful life has been repeatedly extended to 2031. The ISS has been excluding China right from the start. 

This speaks volumes about China's technological capabilities, along with its head start in certain domains of 5G, Big Data, and Internet of Things (IoT), technologies set to change lives and how businesses are conducted in a "Fourth Industrial Revolution" of the 21st century. China already dominates the world in e-payment systems. It is fast developing a digital sovereign currency (digital yuan), which is set to challenge the dollar's hegemony on multiple fronts,considering China's status as the world's largest trader, manufacturer and logistical hub. 

In addition, China is also achieving a breakthrough in nuclear fusion, a source of endless, sustainable energy, according to the South China Morning Post of 11 November, 2021. This is supported by China's leading positions in solar, wind, hydro energy capacities and as the world-largest electric vehicle production and market. Additionally, the country seems on track to realize its Paris Agreement pledge of "carbon peak" by 2030 and "carbon neutrality" by 2060. 

China has launched the world's fastest programmable quantum computers, a million times more powerful than its nearest competitor, Google’s Sycamore, according to a report of 26 October 2021 in the South China Morning Post. 

According to a research paper dated August 2021 of George Town University, by 2025 Chinese universities will produce more than 77,000 STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, Mathematics) PhD graduates per year compared to approximately 40,000 in the United States. If international students are excluded from the U.S. count, Chinese STEM PhD graduates would outnumber their U.S. counterparts more than three-to-one. 

Militarily, China is also catching up by leaps and bounds. China's navy has already become the world's largest in numbers. It is about to launch a third state-of-the art aircraft carrier. Apart from its Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) medium-range high-precision aircraft-killer missiles, according to a report of 18 December 2019, The New Missile Gap in The National Interest,  Dan Goure, Ph.D., vice president at the Lexington Institute, a public-policy research think-tank, opines that America is losing to Russian and Chinese hypersonic weapons. This includes China's "Fractional Orbital Bombardment System (FOBS)" that can circumnavigate the globe in all directions before striking targets with guided, hypersonic, multiple warheads, neutralizing extant missile defense systems. 

Some critical technological bottlenecks remains, such as high-end micro semiconductor chips (smaller than 10 nanometers).  However, to assume that China would for long be crippled technologically underestimates the nation's technological resilience. 

Along with robotics and digitization, a three-child policy with measures to support child births, China is grappling with its worsening demographics with increased productivity through nationwide high-speed transport connectivity.  

Long the talk of the town, China's high-speed rail network accounts for two-thirds of the global total. This will be nearly doubled to 70,000 km over the next 15 years. The will link up all cities over half a million people, while an additional 200,000 km of modern railway would connect all towns of 200,000 people and above. Even the remotest  parts of the country are to be connected. This would hasten China's urbanization rate from 60.6% in 2019 to 65%, doubling China's consumer middle class to 800 million by 2035. Various city clusters are formed, capitalizing on their mutual transport connectivity. All these will boost overall productivity. 

To address widening socio-economic inequality, China is adopting a strategy for "common prosperity", targeting monopolistic or predatory behavior of the nation's biggest and wealthiest conglomerates. This is part of President Xi's strategy to build "China 3.0", creating a fairer, healthier, stronger and ecologically more sustainable nation in fulfilment of the "China Dream". China's miraculous economic transformation in recent decades explains the Chinese people's overwhelming support of China's Communist Party (CCP), (over 90%), multiple ranks above many countries including the United States, according to recent Harvard Kennedy School findings. 

As pointed out by Kishore Mahbubani, a world-renowned Singaporean academic, diplomat and geopolitical consultant in his book Has China Won? (Pubic Affairs, New York, 2020), while America's bottom half have seen their incomes stagnate over the past thirty years, China's bottom half have the best lives ever, for the past 4,000 years! A resounding answer to the West's continuing aspersions about the CCP's legitimacy.

When the Ukraine war eventually comes to an end, a weakened and ostracized Russia and a devastated, partitioned Ukraine are likely to ensue, along with an extended NATO encompassing Finland and Sweden. A more nervous yet resilient Russia surrounded by enemies at the gates is likely to double down on friendship with China "without limits", both countries being arch enemies of the United States.

In particular, Russia would rely on China as its largest customer for its energy and agricultural products, the latter production likely to expand thanks to global warming. China's trade and investments are likely to replace Russia's domestic markets vacated by Western enterprises and brands. As a gateway to the rest of Europe, Ukraine is also likely to resume having China as its largest customer of its wheat and other commodities, capitalizing on the BRI's deep wallets. .

Wary of the perceived "China Threat" to values and security, the European Union is unlikely to return to its former coziness with China. While relying on America's leadership and NATO's combined military might to deter an embittered Russia, leading countries like Germany, France, Italy and Spain are likely to foster growing European capabilities, including the military, to conduct the EU's own independent affairs of state.

Europe's overall attitude towards China, therefore, may not be on all fours with that of the United States. On the one hand, it would erect firewalls and safeguards against perceived threats, on the other hand, it is likely to capitalize on the EU's excellent institutions and unique traditions to foster a more constructive relationship with a more powerful China pivoting more to Europe and Eurasia in preference to a hostile United States. This is likely to translate into more EU-China trade, investments, research, and people-to-people exchanges, to say the least. 

All told, the War in Ukraine promises to be a global game-changer. It exposes Russia's and Ukraine's vulnerabilities as well as resilience. It is ushering global dynamics more in tune with China's quest for its China Dream of national renaissance than with the United States' hope of not having to share power ever with a vast country of diametrically different civilization, culture, race and ideology. It would also beg the question whether the United States' current hard-wired anti-China mindset and policies needs some major modification. 

 

Posted at 03:14 AM in Africa, Asia, Banking, Biotechnology, Books, BRICS, Business promotion, China Business, China's politics, China's Rise, Cities, Climate Change , Consumption, Currencies, Current Affairs, Defense, Democracy, Development_, e-Commerce, Economics, Emerging Economies, Energy, EU, Eurasia, Europe, Finance, Food and Water Security, Future, Gas, Geopolitics, Globalization, Innovation, Investment , Japan, Manufacturing , Middle Class, Middle East, Military, Pakistan, Politics, Regional development, Russia, Science, South China Sea, Sustainable Development, Taiwan, Technology, United States, Urbanization, World | | Comments (0)

April 30, 2022

Ukraine: Beyond the fogs of war

Amid the smoke and mirrors of opposing narratives, an analysis The Military Situation In The Ukraine dated 1 April, 2022 on the US-based non-profit humanistic Postil Magazine is refreshing, rendering a professional insider's view of this saga's whys and wherefores.

The author, Jacques Baud, is a former Policy Chief for United Nations Peace Operations.  He worked with NATO during the 2014 Ukrainian crisis and later participated in programs to assist Ukraine. A former colonel of the General Staff, and ex-member of the Swiss strategic intelligence, he is the author of several books on intelligence, war and terrorism. 

The article delves into the long-drawn-out bombardment and persecution of Russian-speaking people in the Donbas region in violation of the Minks Agreements;  atrocities of Western mercenaries with Nazi leanings of the Azov Regiment; and Putin's initial limited  "demilitarization" and "denazification" aims in securing Ukraine's neutrality from NATO expansion. 

A 2017 documentary film, Breaking point: The War for Democracy in Ukraine, flags up the awakening for nationalism of a historically-suppressed people; how they defied and managed to overthrow corrupt Ukrainian governments in the Orange Revolution and the Revolution of Dignity on the Maiden Independence Square.

On 28 April, the American Congress resurrected a World War II-era Lend-Lease Act (1941) to lend arms to Ukraine for a protracted war against the Russian invasion. Putin is responding by upping the ante. The US-led NATO coalition is reeling under consequential energy shortages and price-hikes, along with mounting inflation fears, while treading a thin line avoiding nuclear Armageddon. Meanwhile, Ukraine is hemorrhaging with its blood and treasure, with some 6 million refugees creating a humanitarian crisis of biblical proportions. 

All this is crying out for an early endgame. Perhaps a Swiss solution for Ukraine's permanent neutrality, foreclosing chances of joining NATO, may be a least bad idea, notwithstanding difficulties of security guarantees. 

A "Swiss Solution" seems to be agreed upon by a global network of specialized experts who took part in a War Game simulation by Wikistrat (originally based in Tel Aviv and later in Washington D.C.) See its summary of findings. For my part in the China Team as a long-time Senior Analyst, I received an Excellence Award from the Alexander Hamilton Society. Download Wikistrat Excellence Award Certificate - Gold Diploma - 30.03.22 

Posted at 07:45 PM in China's politics, China's Rise, Current Affairs, Defense, Democracy, Development_, Energy, EU, Europe, Gas, Geopolitics, Military, Politics, Regional development, Russia, Turkey, UK, Ukraine , United States, Warfare, World | | Comments (0)

April 04, 2022

Iran’s foreign minister says Afghanistan deserves more attention from the international community - China's perspective

Live interview on 30 March 2022 with Press TV. 

Posted at 07:01 PM in Afghanistan, Asia, China's Rise, Current Affairs, Defense, Emerging Economies, Energy, Eurasia, Geopolitics, Middle East, Military, Politics, Regional development, Southeast Asia, Terrorism , Turkey, Ukraine , United States, Warfare | | Comments (0)

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