What's New

Paradigm Shifts Upending the Global Order 2025

A PowerPoint presentation at the Hong Kong EGN Founding Chairmen Group meeting of 14 February 2025.
Download Paradigm Shifts Upending the World Order 2025

 

Should Israel and the United States Attack Iran’s Nuclear Program Now?

A Foreign Policy podcast of 15 October Counterpoint (in partnership with the Doha Forum) features a heated debate between Matt Kroenig, vice president of the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security and a professor of government at Georgetown University, and Barbara Slavin, a distinguished fellow at the Stimson Center and a lecturer in international affairs at George Washington University. 

On the hawkish side, the debate reflects deeply-embedded "American Exceptionalism", that the United States remains able and justified to take matters in its own hands to shape the world according to its own agenda. It also highlights an American tendency to shoot first and face consequences later. The disastrous "War on Terror" comes to mind. 

American hawkishness (which resonates outside this debate) ignores the reality that America's "unipolar" moment has already passed. Aside from China and Russia, more and more nations are now able to pull their weight to challenge American diktats in safeguarding their own national interests. Not least Iran and other Arab countries.

What is more important, as highlighted by Babara Slavin, pulling the U.S. trigger on Iran's nuclear installations now risks missing hidden nuclear assets in Iran's myriad underground facilities while provoking and galvanizing the Iranian nation for quickened moves to acquire nuclear weapon capabiliites. 

There is also the worse-case scenario of an uncontrollable escalation towards nuclear Armegedden, as frightfully portrayed in New York Times best-selling author Annie Jacobsen's well-researched and timley book Nuclear War: A Scenario (Dutton, New York, 26 March, 2024)

Fast fashion typified by SHEIN invokes ecological backlash

TV panel discussion on RoundTable with TRT World on 23 August 2024

Andrew's July 2024 Newsletter

(My quarterly Newsletters go out to some 8,000 professional contacts worldwide. The following is my July 2024 issue. Back numbers may be accessed under What is New on my website.)

Greetings! May I first wish you and family a most prosperous and rewarding summer!

Electoral dynamics are mutating in many countries, not least the United States, the United Kingdom and France, tilting towards right-wing nationalism, xenophobia, and isolationism. These are now mixed with momentous repercussions to the global order with intensifying Great Power rivalry, a protracted Ukraine War, and a catastrophic Israel-Hamas conflict. These challenges, perhaps "not seen for a hundred years", are taxing countries' ability to transcend short-termism and self-denial. 

Meanwhile, the digital, technological, and borderless Fourth and Fifth Industrial Revolutions are transforming how people live and work, how businesses are conducted, how deep reaches on the planet and outer space may be explored, how wars are fought, and how nations interact and defend themselves. Concurrently, common challenges of Climate Change, mutating pandemics and nuclear proliferation are pushing nations closer together. 

Hopefully the following may offer some useful perspectives. 

World Order
With 3 wars and Taiwan, global inflection points are looming (Op-ed in the South China Morning Post)
China’s Alternative Order, and What America should Learn from It (Op-ed in Rome-based World Geostrategic Insights)  Also published in French, Spanish, Russian, and Arabic  Related commentary on Foreign Affairs think-piece
The United States, China, and the Future of the Global Order  (An Asia Society New York panel discussion)
Where Global Governance Went Wrong—and How to Fix It   (Commentary on Foreign Policy think-piece)
Ode to Peace (Song by Zhou Shen at the United Nations Chinese Language Day in New York )

International relations
How the US Keeps Fighting China, Knowing It Won’t Win? (Op-ed in Rome-based World Geostrategic Insights) Also published in French, Spanish, Russian, and Arabic. A related in-depth analysis
Nobody Is Competing With the U.S. to Begin With (Commentary on Foreign Policy think-piece)
Anti-China Cold War, TikTok, Ukraine, Gaza - video interviews with Izvestia (Recorded interview with Izvestia of Russia) 
People-to-people exchanges would keep China-US relations in balance (Op-ed in China Daily)
Premiere Li Qiang's 3-party talks in Seoul with Japan and South Korea (Live exclusive TV interview with TRT World)
Xi Jinping's Europe visit implications (Backchat with RTHK (Radio Television Hong Kong) 
What does President Xi's visit to Europe signify?  (Recorded TV interview with NTV of Russia)
US Secretary of State Blinken to visit China  (Exclusive TV interview with NDTV of India) 
Majority in Southeast Asia would choose China over US, survey suggests (Singapore-based ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute report) 

China
China has become a scientific superpower (Leader in The Economist) 
An era of great misunderstanding of China (Op-ed in India-based Mero Tribune) 
China’s Defense of Its Human Rights Policies (Penn State Journal of Law and International Affairs)

China's economy
Challenges and Prospects of the Chinese Economy (Exclusive in-depth video interview with Rome-based World Geostrategic Insights) 
China Is Still Rising - Don’t Underestimate the World’s Second-Biggest Economy (Commentary on Foreign Affairs think-piece) 
China: Keeping the dragon awake (Allianz Research) 

The dollar
Report of the dollar's imminent demise is over-exaggerated (A succinct in-depth analysis)

Climate Change
Xi Thinks China Can Slow Climate Change. What if He’s Right?  (Commentary on New York Times Guest Essay)

Hong Kong
Hong Kong convicts 14 activists of subversion (Exclusive recorded interview on BBC Newshour) 
Hong Kong government spending - how to make more with less (Backchat with RTHK (Radio Television Hong Kong)

Cheer Up and Chill Out

A 10-point Multimedia Outlook on Life  (Music video)
Inspirational videos and excerpts for life's down-moments

Forthcoming summer sojourn in London
I will be staying in London from the beginning of July through early September. I am open to any invitation to speak or get together in London or in the vicinity. 

International investment opportunities
I am on the International Advisory Board of Silk Road Partners, an international investment firm. Mr Yves Leterme, ex-Prime Minister of Belgium (November 2009 to December 2011) has joined the firm as Senior Partner. If you are interested in getting in touch with us, please give me a shout.

Consultation services
Please email me at [email protected] or text my Hong Kong mobile +852 98198987. I can also be reached on Skype at andrew.k.p.leung, LinkedIn at linkedin.com/in/andrewleunginternational, Whatsapp at (852) 98198987, WeChat at Andrewkpleung, Facebook at andrewkinpongleung, and Twitter at @Andrewkpleung

Business networking and speaking platform in Hong Kong
As an Advisor to the Denmark-based Executives' Global Network Hong Kong, I welcome your suggestion of a suitable speaker for an EGN event in Hong Kong. This will be entirely at our own cost with acknowledgement of your support, provided that we are not asked to cover any speaking fee, travel or accommodation expenses.

RSS feed and weblinks
My posts are regularly uploaded under my three blogs CHINAwatch, Publications and What's New .A collection of leading China media and research sites can be found under China Links.

Please feel free to save my website on your computer, laptop, tablet, iPhone or iPad as a reference resource. If you wish instant access as soon as my postings appear, just click on “Subscribe to this blog’s feed” under RSS Feed on top of the right-hand column of each blog. Select the appropriate Google feed option. It is free of charge.

This newsletter is uploaded to my website here.You may save it for reference or reading at leisure. You are free to share it on Facebook, LinkedIn, WhatsApp, Twitter or other social media devices.

Courtesies
I look forward to your guidance, advice, comments, suggestions, and criticisms. You may share the above contents with colleagues or friends. You are also welcome to publish any of them with full attribution.

If you think that I may add value to your endeavors in any way, please let me know how I may help. If for any reason you do not wish to receive my emails, just ask me to delete your name from my data bank permanently.

Best personal regards,

Andrew K. P. Leung, SBS, FRSA  
International and Independent China Strategist
Andrew Leung International Consultants and Investments Company Limited

Positions

Chairman and CEO, Andrew Leung International Consultants and Investments Limited

(Founded in London, now re-incorporated in Hong Kong; name changed from Andrew Leung International Consultants Limited as from 10 July, 2017) 

China Futures Fellow, Berkshire Publishing Group, Massachusetts, USA (2011-13)
Brain Trust member, The Evian Group (global think-tank), Lausanne, Switzerland

Gerson Lehrman Group (Global Experts) Council Member
International Expert, Reuters Insight Community of Experts, Thomson Reuters 

Senior Analyst, Wikistrat, a cloud-sourced global strategic consultancy based in Tel Aviv and Washington D.C. 

Download Wikistrat Excellence Award

Senior Consultant, MEC International (a UK-based global strategic energy consultancy) 

Distinguished Contributor, Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance (ATCA) (global think-tank)

Professor of Practice, Hong Kong Institute of Education for Sustainable Development (2018-20)  

Download Certificate of Appointment as Professor of Practice

Certified Sustainable Development Planner, World Institute of Sustainable Development Planners

Download Certificate of Recognition as Certified Sustainable Development Planner

Fellow of the Royal Society for the Encouragement of Arts, Manufactures and Commerce (FRSA)
Elected Member, Royal Society for Asian Affairs

Contributing author, Politics Today

Think-tank Research Fellow, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai Campus, PRC (14.4.2017-13.4.2020) 

International Advisory Board Member, Silk Road Partners

Download Silk Road Partners - corporate profile 24-06-2022 

Download Silk Road Partners 2023

Advisory Board member, The e-Centre , European Centre for e-Commerce and Internet Law, Vienna 

Honorary Adviser, International Institute of Management (IIM) 

Advisory Board member, The Global Analyst, India

Honorary President, China Hong Kong Economic and Trading International Association (from 28 March, 2016) 

Download 中國香港國際經貿合作協會簡介和組織架構 (28.03.2023)  

Download A brief introduction to the China-Hong Kong Economic and Trading International Association

Global Commercial Agent, Changsha City, China

Hong Kong Advisory Board member, Denmark-based Executive Global Network (EGN)

Visiting Professor, London Metropolitan University Business School 

Governing Council Member, King’s College London, UK (2004-2010)
Advisory Board member, China Policy Institute, Nottingham University, UK (2005 -2010)

Visiting Professor, Sun Yat-sen University Business School, China (2005-10)
Founding Chairman, China Group, Institute of Directors City Branch, London, UK (2006-2010)
Vice Chairman, 48 Group Club, UK (2008-2010)
Committee Member of RSA, London Region, UK (2006-2010)
Included in UK's Who's Who since 2002
Awarded the Silver Bauhinia Star (SBS) in the July 2005 Hong Kong Honours List 

Where Global Governance Went Wrong—and How to Fix It

Joseph Stiglitz, a Nobel laureate in economics and a professor at Columbia University, wrote the above think-piece in Foreign Policy on 28 April.

Echoing his earlier seminal works Globalization and Its Discontents (2003) and Making Globalization Work (2007), Stiglitz laments the worsening breakdown of equitable governance, both nationally and globally.

Much-touted neo-liberalism has not succeeded to lift all boats within most nations and globally. Unbridled "free economy" often serves to give "total liberty to the wolves and death to the lambs".

He cites examples including the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, the Covid "vaccine apartheid" prizing Big Pharma fortunes over millions of lives in poor countries, and massive subsidies to enterprises under the "CHIPS and Science Act", begging questions of "free market" double standards. 

Globally, the Global South is being marginalized for lack of a fair "world government" enforcing the so-called "rule-based world order", reminiscent of famed Greek philosopher Thucydides' quote "The strong do what they can. The weak suffer what they must."

To win hearts and minds in a "new Cold War" agaisnt China, Stiglitz suggests that the United States should "abandon the corporate-driven rules-based system and work instead to create a set of at least basic rules that would reflect common interests."

The "corporate-driven system" is shorthand for the deeply-entrenched "military-industrial-financial-techological-media"complex that has long taken root since former US President Eisehower's parting shot in1961. See New Yorker famed investigative journalist and author Jane Mayer's bestseller Dark Mioney (2017). The hard-wired elite "corporate-driven" DNA is unlikely to change anytime soon.  

Unless the United States and other countries start to embrace a more equitable "alternative world order" including reform of the United Nations Security Council, the law of the jungle in geopolitics, albeit subtly nuanced or camouflaged, is likely to continue, at a time when America can no long call all the shots.            

Andrew's April 2024 Newsletter

(My quarterly Newsletters go out to some 8,000 professional contacts worldwide. The following is my April 2024 issue. Back numbers may be accessed under What is New on my website.)

Greetings! May I first wish you a forthcoming glorious summer! 

The world is at a rare inflexion point.  As many as 64 countries plus the European Union are having leadership elections this year, covering half of the world population and including those, like the U.S. and EU, of global consequence.

The U.S. is finding both feet stuck in deep mud over Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas conflict with humunitarian disasters of biblical proportions.  The EU is struggling to cope with both a much-weakened economy and the looming prospects of an unpredictable second Trump-adminstration.

China has re-emerged from the economic ravages of a historically severe pandemic. It is beginning to,find its feet in a world economy transformed by the Fourth and Fifth Industrial Revolutions of borderless digitital connectivity. Howewver, the US-let Western camp is doubling down on anti-China "de-risking" or decoupling, friendly rhetoric and diplomatic overtures notwithstanding.  

Amidst the smoke and mirrors of this uncertain year, the following may hopefully offer some fresh food for thought. 

Hong Kong
Article 23 legislation: Debunking fearmongering myths (Op-ed in China Daily) 
Explaining Hong Kong's enactment of Article 23 on national security (Live TV interview on Aljazeera English Channel)
Hong Kong passes its own version of national security law - Article 23 (Live TV interview on CNA, a Singapore-based transmedia channel)_  
Speculation about the SAR’s impending demise is overexaggerated (Op-ed in China Daily) 
Financial Secretary Paul Chan's attendance of the Davos 2024 World Economic Forum (Backchat on Radio Television Hong Kong (RTHK))
Xia Baolong's Hong Kong visit (Backchat on Radio Television Hong Kong (RTHK))

United States 
Why the United States is losing the plot over Ukraine and Gaza (An in-depth analysis) 
The U.S. Double Standard that Weakens its Global Leadership (Op-ed in Rome-based World Geostrategic Insights, republished in French, Spanish, Russian, and Arabic. An earlier, shorter version, Gaza, Ukraine, TikTok: US double standards are eroding its global power appeared in the South China Morning Post.)

China
Beijing is debunking ‘China threat’ myth through trade and cooperation (Op-ed in the South China Morning Post) Republished in Rome-based World Geostrategic Insights with attribiution in in French, Spanish, Russian, and Arabic. An abridged version appeared in the bottom front pages of the China Daily Global Editon (1) (2))
"Two Sessions" Beijing meeting - debunking some myths about China's economy (Backchat on Radio Television Hong Kong (RTHK))

Taiwan
Why Beijing needs to Sweeten the Carrot to Entice Taiwan’s People Towards Peaceful Unification (Op-ed in Rome-based World Geostrategic Insights, republished in French, Spanish, Russian, and Arabic.  An earlier, shorter version How Beijing can make reunification more appealing for Taiwanese appeared in the South China Morning Post with its prinited version entitled Outside the Box. 
What Taiwan’s election outcome means for China, US and the world (A report by the Anadulo Agency in Ankara, Turkey)
Ruling party candidate Lai Ching-te emerges victorious in Taiwan's election - implications (Exclusive live interview on TRT World) 

Israel-Hamas Conflict
China's mediating role in the Israel-Hamas conflict (An in-depth analysis) 
Gaza crie de ceour at the Academy Award 2024 (Video clip) 

Ukraine, Russia
Why Beijing insists on Russia's inclusion in any peace talks on Ukraine; why Biden suddenly offers an olive branch over nuclear armament talks with Russia and China (Exclusive recorded TV interview (in English) with MIC Izvestia, the largest Russian-language multi-media channel based in Moscow) 

TikTok
US TikTok ban a double-standard excuse to appropriate a valuable Chinese asset (Recorded interview (in English) with Russian-language CBC TV Azerbijan)

Climate Change
Climate action: how China is accelerating the drive towards a net zero world (Op-ed in the South China Morming Post) See a a coincidedntal Time Magazine piece How 2024 Will Be a Watershed Climate Moment for China 

India
"China Knows India Isn't Weak" (Live TV panel discussion on NDTV)

World
2024: Year of Living Dangerously (A PowerPoint presentation) 
Megatrends To 2050: Geopolitical Fragmentation To Accelerate, Raising Global Risks  (Forecast by BMI, a FitchSolutions Company) .  

Cheer Up and Chill Out

A 10-point Multimedia Outlook on Life  (Music video)
Inspirational videos and excerpts for life's down-moments

Forhcoming summer sojourn in London
I will be staying in London from beginning of July through early September. I am open to any invitation to speak or get together in London or in the vincinity. 

International investment opportunities
I am on the International Advisory Board of Silk Road Partners, an international investment firm. Mr Yves Leterme, ex-Prime Minister of Belgium (November 2009 to December 2011) has joined the same Board. If you are interested in getting in touch with us, please give me a shout.

Consultation services
Please email me at [email protected] or text my Hong Kong mobile +852 98198987.I can also be reached on Skype at andrew.k.p.leung, LinkedIn at linkedin.com/in/andrewleunginternational, Whatsapp at (852) 98198987, WeChat at Andrewkpleung, Facebook at andrewkinpongleung, and Twitter at @Andrewkpleung

Business networking and speaking platform in Hong Kong
As an Advisor to the Denmark-based Executives' Global Network Hong Kong, I welcome your suggestion of a suitable speaker for an EGN event in Hong Kong. This will be entirely at our own cost with acknowledgement of your support, provided that we are not asked to cover any speaking fee, travel or accommodation expenses.

RSS feed and weblinks
My posts are regularly uploaded under my three blogs CHINAwatch, Publications and What's New .A collection of leading China media and research sites can be found under China Links.

Please feel free to save my website on your computer, laptop, tablet, iPhone or iPad as a reference resource. If you wish instant access as soon as my postings appear, just click on “Subscribe to this blog’s feed” under RSS Feed on top of the right-hand column of each blog. Select the appropriate Google feed option. It is free of charge.

This newsletter is uploaded to my website here.You may save it for reference or reading at leisure. You are free to share it on Facebook, LinkedIn, WhatsApp, Twitter or other social media devices.

Courtesies
I look forward to your guidance, advice, comments, suggestions, and criticisms. You may share the above contents with colleagues or friends. You are also welcome to publish any of them with full attribution.

If you think that I may add value to your endeavors in any way, please let me know how I may help.If for any reason you do not wish to receive my emails, just ask me to delete your name from my data bank permanently.

Best personal regards,

Andrew K. P. Leung, SBS, FRSA  
International and Independent China Strategist
Andrew Leung International Consultants and Investments Company Limited

Positions

Chairman and CEO, Andrew Leung International Consultants and Investments Limited

(Founded in London, now re-incorporated in Hong Kong; name changed from Andrew Leung International Consultants Limited as from 10 July, 2017) 

China Futures Fellow, Berkshire Publishing Group, Massachusetts, USA (2011-13)
Brain Trust member, The Evian Group (global think-tank), Lausanne, Switzerland

Gerson Lehrman Group (Global Experts) Council Member
International Expert, Reuters Insight Community of Experts, Thomson Reuters 

Senior Analyst, Wikistrat, a cloud-sourced global strategic consultancy based in Tel Aviv and Washington D.C. 

Download Wikistrat Excellence Award

Senior Consultant, MEC International (a UK-based global strategic energy consultancy) 

Distinguished Contributor, Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance (ATCA) (global think-tank)

Professor of Practice, Hong Kong Institute of Education for Sustainable Development (2018-20)  

Download Certificate of Appointment as Professor of Practice

Certified Sustainable Development Planner, World Institute of Sustainable Development Planners

Download Certificate of Recognition as Certified Sustainable Development Planner

Fellow of the Royal Society for the Encouragement of Arts, Manufactures and Commerce (FRSA)
Elected Member, Royal Society for Asian Affairs

Contributing author, Politics Today

Think-tank Research Fellow, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai Campus, PRC (14.4.2017-13.4.2020) 

International Advisory Board Member, Silk Road Partners

Download Silk Road Partners - corporate profile 24-06-2022 

Download Silk Road Partners 2023

Advisory Board member, The e-Centre , European Centre for e-Commerce and Internet Law, Vienna 

Honorary Adviser, International Institute of Management (IIM) 

Advisory Board member, The Global Analyst, India

Honorary President, China Hong Kong Economic and Trading International Association (from 28 March, 2016) 

Download 中國香港國際經貿合作協會簡介和組織架構 (28.03.2023)  

Download A brief introduction to the China-Hong Kong Economic and Trading International Association

Global Commercial Agent, Changsha City, China

Hong Kong Advisory Board member, Denmark-based Executive Global Network (EGN)

Visiting Professor, London Metropolitan University Business School 

Governing Council Member, King’s College London, UK (2004-2010)
Advisory Board member, China Policy Institute, Nottingham University, UK (2005 -2010)

Visiting Professor, Sun Yat-sen University Business School, China (2005-10)
Founding Chairman, China Group, Institute of Directors City Branch, London, UK (2006-2010)
Vice Chairman, 48 Group Club, UK (2008-2010)
Committee Member of RSA, London Region, UK (2006-2010)
Included in UK's Who's Who since 2002
Awarded the Silver Bauhinia Star (SBS) in the July 2005 Hong Kong Honours List 

Why the United States is losing the plot over Ukraine and Gaza

John Mearsheimer, father of "Offensive Realism", elucidated the above topic at the Australian Center for Independent Studies on 15 March. He spoke with great clarity on how the US has unwittingly become mired on both feet in Ukraine and the Israeili-Hamas wars, unable to concentrate on China as its acknowledged greatest rivalry for global power. 

Mearsheimer also highlighted the American folly of pushing Russia into China's embrace, (not forgetting Iran). This was the deadly "anti-hegemonic alliance" forewarned by the late Zbigniew Brzezinski, a doyen of American foreign policy, in his much-acclaimed 1998 tome The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy And Its Geostrategic Imperatives (page 55).

To this anti-hegemonic alliance must now be added North Korea, and indeed, many countries in the Global South, growing disillusioned with "America-First" hegemony. 

However, the dilemma remains that the U.S. cannot wash its hands off Ukraine and/or Gaza without undermining its global power, adding to the perception of China getting a one up in the great power rivalry. 

To Mearsheimer's call for US strategic focus, let's not forget a host of other "global threats" summarized by the US Director of National Intelligence in his Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community of 5 Febuary 2024. The report addresses in great depth a host of perceived threats faced by the United States, including China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, Ukraine, Gaza, Disruptive Technologies, "Digital Authoritarianism", Weapons of Mass Destruction, Climate Change, Health Security, Migration, as well as Non-State Threats including Transnational Crime, Human Trafficking, Terrorism, and Private Military and Security Companies. 

Gaza crie de ceour at the Academy Award 2024

Download Academy Award 2024 - Gaza crie de coeur 

2024: Year of Living Dangerously

A PowerPoint presentation to the Hong Kong EGN Chairmen Group on 22 February 2024. Download 2024 - Year of Living Dangerously

Megatrends To 2050: Geopolitical Fragmentation To Accelerate, Raising Global Risks

Megatrends to 2050 is a forecast, Global Country Risks, dated 20 June 2023 by BMI, a FitchSolutions Company. 

The following are some salient excerpts  -

(a) The world order will become increasingly multipolar over the coming three decades, as geopolitical influence disperses away from the US and emerging economies seek to increase their power in tandem with their economic and demographic weigh. 

(b) Our GDP forecasts for 2050 envisage China and the US being by far the biggest economies with nominal GDPs of USD52.5trn and USD42.9trn respectively, far ahead of third-ranked India (USD16.3trn). 

(c) Despite a probable shift towards geopolitical ‘bifurcation’ in the northern hemisphere, we see scope for an additional bloc or loose grouping centred around the ‘Global South’, with India, Indonesia, South Africa, Nigeria and Brazil becoming increasingly prominent on the world stage.

(d) A substantial increase in great power tensions would accelerate the fragmentation of the international system, as each great power would seek to build their own, largely exclusive, sphere of influence and economic linkages between rival powers would rapidly be unwound.

(e) Geopolitical considerations will increasingly supersede economic ones for governments and businesses in the post-Covid, post-Ukraine war international system. 

(f) As the world becomes more multipolar, and as more economies acquire greater influence, the risk of major power conflict will increase.

(g) We believe that any hypothetical conflict between the US and China could be a defining moment for the international system. At the same time, we emphasise that great power conflict is by no means inevitable

(h) Against this backdrop, we also anticipate that more markets will acquire nuclear weapons, or at least the ability to develop them at short notice. 

(i) The world order will also become more fluid over the coming decade or two, as a certain degree of ‘tactical’ shifting may take place by medium-sized markets seeking to maximise their ‘independence’

(j) For the foreseeable future, more markets will be at risk of becoming subsumed in ‘proxy’ conflicts between the major powers. 

(k) We anticipate that multiple markets around the world, especially larger ones, will experience greater decentralisation pressures over the coming decades. In some cases, decentralisation will be a precursor to formal separatism, especially where separate cultural identities are the main drivers of autonomism.

(l) The EU is also analogous to some of these markets, and we anticipate continued tensions there between those that favour greater centralisation under Brussels and those that favour greater devolution of power back to nation states. These dynamics could be tested again if the continent experiences a similar crisis to that in the eurozone in 2010-2012.

(m) We believe that Russia is one of the most likely to experience greater autonomist or separatist pressures, as a long-term consequence of the war in Ukraine. Anecdotal reports suggest that Russia’s ethnic minorities have experienced disproportionately high casualties in the war, which may increase their sense of resentment towards Moscow. We also anticipate that Russia will emerge from the conflict substantially weaker militarily and economically poorer. This suggests that Moscow will have reduced ability to subsidise or militarily suppress potentially rebellious regions.

(n) We anticipate that urbanisation will continue in Emerging Markets, with the UN forecasting that the world’s urban population will rise from 55% of the global total in 2018 to 68% by 2050, with the bulk of this increase taking place in Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. With more people living in cities, social unrest and conflicts could lead to urban warfare. However, urbanisation is not necessarily irreversible.

(o) Despite the fact that globalisation has reached a plateau, we believe that inter-connectedness between cities spanning different markets and continents will be a key factor upholding some form of globalism.

(p) Some "known unkowns" - 

• Considerable question marks surround Russia’s ability to remain a major world power.
• It is unclear if the Communist Party of China (CPC) can continue to hold a monopoly of power in Mainland China all the way out to 2050. 
• The EU could itself face centrifugal tendencies as a result of rising nationalism, which could be exacerbated by another financial crisis.
• The US has become increasingly polarised, raising the possibility that it, too, could face internal upheaval that could force it to turn even more inward.

The above are by no means iconoclastic, mostly following current happenings. However, these predictions are dated June 2023, before the tide turned over the Ukraine War and the new Israel-Hamas crisis.

With the US and EU running short on financial, ammuntion, and political support for Ukraine, Russia remains resilient and may finally settle for a Ukraine deal in its favour, particularly in the event of Trump's return to the White House. This would tilt the global geopolitical balance against the Western camp. 

At the same time, across the Middle East, the wider Global South, and various Western countries, the Gaza war is increasingly challenging the legitimacy of Israel's disproportionate reprisals and America's continuing support, regardless of Houhti's attack on selected civilian shipping in the Red Sea. In the circumstances, China and Russia are likely to benefit geopolitically as a result. How the Israel-Hamas War Is Tilting the Global Power Balance in Favor of Russia, China.

The predictions do not seem to take sufficient account of China's deeply-imbedded centrality in the global supply and value chain, US-led de-coupling or de-risking notwithstanding. By 2018, China has become a bigger trading partner for 128 of 190 countries than the US, according to the Lowy Institute. Seven of the world's top ten busiest container ports are in China (including Hong Kong). China is also the world’s largest manufacturer. Most of the world's consumer products, whether marked "Made in China" have incorporated China's inputs in terms of minerals and other materials, technical components, assembly or logistics.This centrality is likley to gain further momentum with the world's largest trading bloc, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnerswhip (RCEP) comprising ASEAN and its main trading partners including China, accounting for a third of global GDP and a third of the world's population. Additionally,  China's ubiquitous Belt and Road Initiative, linking the world with overland and maritime infrastructure, has now been rejigged to become more indebtedness-and-ecology sensitive, as well as more open and inclusive of local stakeholders. 

Neither have the predictions taken enough account of China's lead in 37 out of 44 cutting-edge technologies, according to ASPI's March 2023 Critical Techoilogy Tracker). These include certain sectors in Artificial Intelligence, quantum computing and Internet of Things (IoT) which are defining how people live, how businesses are conducted, and how national powers are measured in the 21st century. This lead is likely to endure, thanks to China's vast technological manpower pool. By 2025 Chinese universities will be producing more than 77,000 STEM PhDs per year compared to approximately 40,000 in the United States. Excluding international students, Chinese STEM PhD graduates would outnumber their U.S. counterparts more than three-to-one, according to George Town University's CSET (Center for Security and Emerging Technology). 

China's current gloal gravitas is reflected in an analysis Which country has the most influence in the world? dated 29 January 2024 by the Red Team Analysis Society, a global geopolitical consultancy and think tank. 

Last but not least, the predictions show insufficient recognition that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been evolving and become very adaptive in recent decades. Under its tutelage, the lives of 1.4 billion Chinese people have been dramatically transformed. Globally, it has become one of the governments most trusted and supported by its people, muliple ranks above many Western democracies including the United States, according to recent research conducted by the Harvard Kennedy School, 2023 Edelman Trust Barometer, and IPSOS Global Happiness 2023 Report. Current demographic, economic, and geopolitical headwinds notwithstanding, it is still too soon to conclude that China will never overtake the United States as the largest economy.