What's New

Andrew's June 2020 Newsletter

(My quarterly Newsletter goes out to some 8,500 professional contacts worldwide. The following is my June 2020 issue. Back numbers may be accessed under What's New on this website) 

Greetings! 

 

In just a few months, the world has changed almost beyond recognition. The Coronavirus pandemic has revealed the true colors of nations and peoples. It has changed how lives and businesses can be conducted. It has intensified an epochal contest for global power leading to a face-off between the world's Superpower (with its liberal world order) and its perceived challenger, with increasing risks of miscalculations.

 

Hong Kong, where I am based, is right at the center of these shocks. As if that is not enough, Beijing's unilateral introduction of a national security law for Hong Kong rattles the dynamics underpinning One Country Two Systems. This unique status has been an incalculable boon not only for China and the Special Administrative Region but for the rest of the world. Now the United States is threatening unspecified sanctions which could undermine Hong Kong's survival as a global financial center. 

 

Amidst the doom and gloom, the following may hopefully offer some fresh perspectives in seeing through the smoke and mirrors.

 

Hong Kong

 

USA-China tussle: geo-strategically the report on the death of Hong Kong's autonomy is somewhat exaggerated (A dissection of what is behind Hong Kong's national security law) 

China's HK national security law threatens HK's One Country Two Systems? (Live interview on WION TV) 

Hong Kong leader slams ‘double standards’ on national security, cites US unrest (Live interview on Press TV) 

Hong Kong govt. warns removing US special status is "double-edged sword"  (Live interview on Press TV) 

Hong Kong’s leader reaffirms new law would not harm rights, freedoms (Live interview on Press TV) 

Should Hong Kong civil servants be loyal to Beijing? (A RTHK Backchat discussion) 

National Security Law and personal freedom (A RTHK Backchat discussion) 

Is the US posture on Hong Kong's national security law part of the anti-China "cold war"? (Live interview on TRT World) 

China's controversial security law becomes a flash point in Hong Kong (Live TV interview on WION of India and CCTV background documentary) 

Pompeo threatens China on impinging on Hong Kong's autonomy and freedoms (Live interview on Press TV)

A "mid-term" Hong Kong Government ministerial reshuffle (A RTHK Backchat discussion) 

US-China great power rivalry

Strategic US-China decoupling in the tech sector (A Hinrich Foundation report) 

United States Strategic Approach to the People’s Republic of China (An in-depth analysis) 

The Struggle for Power: U.S.-China Relations in the 21st Century (A prelude to a new US defining strategy)

US China "Cold War" and the Coronavirus Crisis (Live interview on Press TV) 

Why China is better prepared than other economic powers for any global crisis (Article in RT Question Time) 

Where is China? - A perspective (A multi-angle look on multi-media) 

Could Trump's spat with NATO over Huawei hasten the demise of NATO? (Sputnik's Opinion piece)

US - China strategic relations amidst allegations of China's secret low-level nuclear testing (Live TV panel discussion on Indus News) 

US: China secretly conducting small nuclear tests (Live interview on Press TV) 

 

Coronavirus crisis

 

Will China become weaker or stronger after Covid-19? (A critical appraisal) 

Ten reasons why the Coronavirus crisis spawns a brave new world of discord (Article in World Strategic Insights)

Covid-19 Crisis - Can China bounce back? (Feature report in The Global Analyst)

Wikistrat Report: The Impact of the Coronavirus on China's Stability (An analytical Wikistrat summary)

China's Handling of Covid-19 Crisis is 'Embarrassment' for Trump Ahead of 2020 Election (Radio interview transcript on Sputnik International) 

How an independent investigation into the origin of Coronavirus should be conducted (Live TV panel discussion on Indus News)

How the UN Security Council could agree on reining in mutual aggression to fight Covid-19? (Live interview on Press TV) 

What's behind US accusations against China over the Coronavirus crisis (Live interview on Press TV)

Is China to blame for Covid-19 pandemic?  (An in-depth analysis) 

RSF complains to UN about Coronavirus press freedom  (Live TV panel discussion on Indus News) 

US-China sprat over Coronavirus pandemic (Live interview on Indus News)

Trump blames China for the Coronavirus pandemic (Live interview on RT) 

China raps Trump over Chinese virus tweet (Live interview on Press TV) 

China offers help to US to deal with Coronavirus (Live interview on Press TV) 

Hong Kong announces $15 billion in spending ton support Covid-19 ridden economy (Live TV interview on TRT World) 

Over 500 passengers allowed to leave ship after being tested negative for Covid-19  (Live interview on Press TV) 

Economic impact of Covid-19 on global economy (Live TV interview on Ren TV of Moscow) 

Is the world prepared for a looming Covid-19 pandemic? (Live panel discussion on Indus News) 

 

World Order

 

The Decline of the West: What is it and Why might it matter? (An Asia Global Institute paper) 

"The China Mirage" - Timely revisit of America's tragic misreading of China (A critical look at the looming risks) 

New Money: The Greatest Wealth Creation Event in History (2019) - Full Documentary (A Stanberry Research documentary) 

China in a New Era of Global Disruptions (including Covid-19 pandemic) (A PowerPoint presentation) 

The Coronavirus could usher in a Brave New World (An in-depth analysis)

China has created tech ‘new world order’ in Big data and AI (A Future Today Institute tech-trend report)

 

Taiwan

 

US approves sale of 18 MK-48 MOD6 torpedoes to Taiwan worth about $180mn (Live interview with Press TV)

China blasts meddling as US signs new Taiwan support law (Live interview on Press TV) 

 

Energy

 

China extracts 861,400 cubic metres of natural gas from ‘flammable ice’ in South China Sea (A global energy game-changer) 

 

History 

 

Book Review of "The Last Journey Of The San Bao Eunuch, Admiral Zheng He" (Book review invited by author)

 

7th International Conference on Eurasian Politics & Society in Lisbon, Portugal postponed to 24-25 September 2020 

 

Subject to exigencies, I am scheduled to present at the above international conference my full-length Paper How will Eurasian Integration of China's Belt & Road Initiative fare in defending a Multipolar World Order. Should this materialize, I will upload my Paper and PowerPoint presentation to this website afterwards. 

 

Cheer up and chill out

A repertoire of inspirational music, videos, songs and words. There is also a collection in Chinese.

Invitation for expressions of interest in investment opportunities

An upended world abounds with fresh BUY and SELL investment opportunities on many fronts across the globe, including new technologies, new markets and new businesses. If you wish to avail yourself of my business network worldwide, please drop me a line on a strictly no-commitment basis initially. 

Consultation services

Please email me at [email protected] or text my Hong Kong mobile +852 98198987.  I can also be reached on Skype at andrew.k.p.leung, LinkedIn at andrewleunginternational, Whatsapp at (852) 98198987, WeChat at Andrewkpleung, Facebook at andrewkinpongleung, and Twitter at @Andrewkpleung

Speaking and lecturing invitations

I am open to invitations or proposals for speaking engagements, visiting lectures and tailor-made electives as a visiting/adjunct professor. 

Business networking and speaking platform in Hong Kong

As an Advisor to the Denmark-based Executives' Global Network Hong Kong, I welcome your suggestion of a suitable speaker for an EGN event in Hong Kong. This will be entirely at our own cost with acknowledgement of your support, provided that we are not asked to cover any speaking fee, travel or accommodation expenses.

RSS feed and weblinks

My postings are regularly uploaded under my three blogs CHINAwatch, Publications and What is New on www.andrewleunginternationalconsultants.com  A collection of leading China media and research sites can be found under China Links.

Please feel free to save my website on your computer, laptop, tablet, Blackberry, iPhone or iPad as a reference resource. If you wish instant access as soon as my postings appear, just click on “Subscribe to this blog’s feed” under RSS Feed on top of the right-hand column of each blog. Select the appropriate Google feed option. It is free of charge.  

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Courtesies

I look forward to your guidance, advice, comments, suggestions, and criticisms. You may share the above contents with colleagues or friends. You are also welcome to publish any of them with full attribution. 

If you think that I may add value to your endeavors in any way, please let me know how I may help.  If for any reason you do not wish to receive my emails, just ask me to delete your name from my databank permanently. 

Best personal regards, 

Andrew K.P. Leung, SBS, FRSA

International and Independent China Strategist

www.andrewleunginternationalconsultants.com  

Positions  

Chairman and CEO, Andrew Leung International Consultants and Investments Limited

(Founded in London, now re-incorporated in Hong Kong; name changed from Andrew Leung International Consultants Limited as from 10 July, 2017) 

China Futures Fellow, Berkshire Publishing Group, Massachusetts, USA (2011-13)
Brain Trust member, The Evian Group (global think-tank), Lausanne, Switzerland

Gerson Lehrman Group (Global Experts) Council Member
International Expert, Reuters Insight Community of Experts, Thomson Reuters

Senior Analyst, Wikistrat , a cloud-sourced global strategic consultancy based in Washington D.C.

Senior Consultant, MEC International (a UK-based global strategic energy consultancy) 

Distinguished Contributor, Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance (ATCA) (global think-tank)

Professor of Practice, Hong Kong Institute of Education for Sustainable Development (2018-20)

Certified Sustainable Development Planner, World Institute of Sustainable Development Planners

Fellow of the Royal Society for the Encouragement of Arts, Manufactures and Commerce (FRSA)

Elected Member, Royal Society for Asian Affairs

Think-tank Research Fellow, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai Campus, PRC (14.4.2017-13.4.2020) 

Advisory Board member, The e-Centre , European Centre for e-Commerce and Internet Law, Vienna 

Honorary Adviser, International Institute of Management (IIM) 

Advisory Board member, The Global Analyst, India

Honorary President, China Hong Kong Economic and Trading International Association (from 28 March, 2016) 

Global Commercial Agent, Changsha City, China

Hong Kong Advisory Board member, Denmark-based Executive Global Network (EGN)

Visiting Professor, London Metropolitan University Business School 

Governing Council Member, King’s College London, UK (2004-2010)
Advisory Board member, China Policy Institute, Nottingham University, UK (2005 -2010)

Visiting Professor, Sun Yat-sen University Business School, China (2005-10)
Founding Chairman, China Group, Institute of Directors City Branch, London, UK (2006-2010)
Vice Chairman, 48 Group Club, UK (2008-2010)
Committee Member of RSA, London Region, UK (2006-2010)
Included in UK's Who's Who since 2002
Awarded the Silver Bauhinia Star (SBS) in the July 2005 Hong Kong Honours List 

Is the world prepared for a looming Covid-19 pandemic?

Live TV panel discussion on Indus News on 26 February, 2020 (My part starts mid-way through the video clip)

Why Hong Kong protesters' remaining demands are not realistic

Live interview on Sky News TV on 22 September, 2019.

National Plan for structural re-alignment of industries in North East, East, Central, and West regions, November 2018

The above National Plan (2018 国家产业调整布局) is a detailed guide for the re-alignment of exisitng and new industries between various provinces, cities, prefectures and counties in the North East, East, Central and West regions. It aims at the orderly phasing-out, upgrading and regional, provincial, and locational postioning of exisitng and new industries, including new materials, new energies, digital and information technologies, intelligent manufacturing, aerospace, transportation, shipping, pharmaceuticals, food and other consumer products, as well as a variety of light industries. 

Somewhat reminiscent of a planned economy, the above Plan is a good example of how China's reformed development model manages to achieve rapid growth by combing national planning, state direction, the private sector, and free market dynamics. 

As between various provinces and localities, competition is very keen. Competition with foreign enterprises both in China and overseas is expected to redouble following current trade war accommodations and adjustments

As for the perceived fatal flaw of State-Owned Enterprises predominance, let's not forget that the private sector in China remains very much alive and kicking. All it takes is a stroll along some of the many busy shopping and recreational districts throughout China. Indeed, as part of a relief package in response to the trade war, a substantial Mid-Term Lending Facility (TMLF) is designed to support the private sector. Click here (PowerPoint presentation Slide 11).

Singapore is a shining example of how state-backed conglomerates can co-exist synergistically with a vibrant private sector. (China's Crisis of Success, William Overholt, Cambridge University Press, 2018, pp. 246-7). Although the author doesn't think that this could apply to China on account of Singapore's much smaller size, there is no convincing argument why size alone would make this inapplicable.  

Download 2018 国家产业调整布局  

With Trump, where do you put your money in 2017?

My strategic investment talk with the Hong Kong University Graduate Association on 7 March, 2017 - entitled Implications of a Trump Presidency and Shifts in the World Order - Where to put your money in 2017

Download HKUGA Investment Talk flyer (Flyer in Chinese) 

Download Implications of a Trump Presidency and Shifts in the World Order - Where to put your money in 2017

The Age of Oil may end with a financial crisis from an "energy bubble"?

The Economist front-page article (6 December, 2014) shows how the economics of oil have changed with the "shale revolution" in America and other countries. Another Economist front-pager of 17 January 2015 flags up what an era of low energy prices can do to fix bad energy policies and politics.

The backdrop is what is proving to be a long-term massive drop in oil (and gas) prices all around. This should be good news for economic growth except for major producers of fossil fuels.  Click here

Saudi Arabia's refusal to reduce production to prop up prices may be a ploy to nip the shale competition in the bud. According to some analysts, this may also be a disguised lethal weapon (in collusion with the United States) to wreck Russia's economy as what actually happened in 1985 leading to the collapse of the former USSR.

China's recent energy deals with Russia are largely for reasons of the Middle Kingdom's energy security and geopolitical balancing against America's "Asia Pivot". They do not alter the reality that China is rapidly shifting her energy mix towards a higher proportion of renewables and nuclear energy. Click here

The Economist has flagged up the front-loaded depletion of shale wells with 60-70% of total production coming within the first year of operation. So a continuous stream of revenue and investment is essential by having to drill more and more wells. It begs the question how many shale operators could cope with a massive drop of oil prices from $115 a barrel in June to near $46 a barrel at present, below the average floor price of $48 a barrel for shale production viability.  Click here

Apart from the question whether global demand will increase in sufficient magnitute in the coming decades to sustain the shale euphoria, the extensive environmental impact of fracking in terms of ground water and soil pollution may rear its ugly head at some point causing such public outcry as to dim its future prospects. Click here

What is more, it seems that another financial crisis could be just around the corner, this time to be sparked off by an "energy bubble". Click here

This is no sheer conjecture because -

(a) There is too much hype financed by junk bonds offering high interest yields. As oil and gas prices continue to be subdued, and as more and more new and less profitable drilling needs to be made, a tipping point may suddenly happen, as in the case of an unstable but grand-looking sand castle.

(b) The world's major oil and gas consumers, especially China, are all trying hard to enhance energy security through energy conservation and reducing and/or diversifying imports.The momentum is builing up in China towards a greater share of near-zero-emission energies like solar, wind, hydro and nuclear power.  While the demand remains substantial, the rate of growth in imports is likely to slow down.

(c) In addition, as the world's largest energy consumer, China is re-structuring her economy to becoming less energy-intensive (from a value-added perspective) and more sustainable (from an environmental perspective). This will dampen oil and gas prices further.

While much lower energy prices will benefit most economies, particularly those heavily dependent on energy input such as China, before the Age of Oil comes to an end, the transition is likely to be fraught with uncertainties including geopolitics and shale-gas "irrational exuberance".

As energy prices and production are closely interlocked wih the world''s financial and investment matrix, the bursting of a global "energy bubble" could well spark off the next global financial crisis from which few countries could escape unscathed.

What's next for China? - McKinsey Insight

This McKinsey Insight China report looks at China's dramatic changes ahead as the nation is being transformed into an economy of consumers. It examines how various city clusters are driving the change in respective ways and how household income growth at different levels, labour dynamics, resource pressures, innovation, and diverse consumer preferences and lifestyles are playing out as a new Chinese economy takes shape.

Download What's Next China - McKinsey Insights China - December 2012