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MEDays 2022 post-Forum 6-9 November interlude - music video slides. 

Download MEDays 2022 - Tangier Rabat Blue City Casablanca (with Arabic music)

Andrew's July 2021 Newsletter

(My quarterly Newsletter goes out to some 8,500 professional contacts worldwide. The following is my July 2021 issue. Back numbers may be accessed under What's New on my website) 

Greetings! May I first wish you a relaxing summer, pandemics permitting!

 

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has just celebrated its centenary. Under its tutelage, the lives of the Chinese people, a fifth of mankind, have been miraculously transformed. China has become the world's second largest economy, largest trader and manufacturer, with notable advances in computing, 5G, AI, military and space capabilities. After a "Century of Humiliation", the Chinese people can now hold their heads up high, embracing the China Dream of national renaissance, including a greener and "more beautiful China".

 

According to Harvard and PEW research surveys, across the globe, the CCP is the government most trusted and supported by its people, belying questions about its legitimacy.  Meanwhile, perhaps by 2028, China may overtake the United States as the world's largest economy (albeit not in per capita terms).

 

On the other hand, China's growing global clout, its perceived transgressions on human rights, undesirable trade practices and assertive actions over the South China Sea, Taiwan, Xinjiang, and Hong Kong, are troubling Western nations and Asian neighbors. Indeed, China's image is plummeting across the world. 

 

China has no intention to rival the United States' 800 military bases in more than 70 countries. Its scientific and technological breakthroughs in multiple fields remain way behind the United States. The mighty dollar still reigns supreme. Nor can China hope its ideology will be readily embraced by more than a handful of countries, or that its culture will be more popular. 

 

Regardless, intensifying Great Power contest has totally upended US-China relations across the board, including ideologies, the military and space. On the other hand, the world is becoming more multipolar, with many countries, including most Western allies, hedging their bets. 

 

In this generational geopolitical maelstrom, how to avert war and promote peace will continue to tax the best minds. Would a little less binary or Manichaean thinking help?  On ideological application to China, should one recall Deng Xiaoping's black cat, white cat, or perhaps a hybrid cat in between? 

 

The following may hopefully serve to stimulate some fresh thinking. 

 

China's politics, economy, and finance

China: No longer the Global Growth Engine? (Feature article in The Global Analyst and a Bloomberg Research report warning) 

What China's Low Growth Means for the World - China's game-changing Five Year Plan (2021-25) (Feature article in The Global Analyst) 

China's digital currency (Feature article in The Global Analyst) 

Understanding China's Innovative Development (A PowerPoint presentation) 

China's 18.3% first quarter growth in 2021 - what's behind it? (Exclusive live TV interview on TRT World) 

 

US-China relations and Geopolitics 

New Concert of Powers (Feature article in World Geostrategic Insights, republished in Chinese, French, Spanish, Russian, and Arabic. (Original commentary)

Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community April 2021 (An analysis) 

Waning US must overcome fear of China's inevitable rise (Op-ed in South China Morning Post) 

How Will We (U.S.) Win the Second Cold War? (A riposte in World Geostrategic Insights) 

Can Asia guide Biden's China Policy? (An insightful analysis (video) by Professor Kishore Mahbubani) 

President Biden's State of the Union address - warning to Russia and China (Live interview on Press TV)

 

Energy and Climate Change

The Future of Power Is Transcontinental, Submarine Supergrids: China wants to lead the way in creating a global energy internet (An in-depth analysis)

Would a US-led Carbon Tax, instead of partnership, spur China's progress under the Paris Agreement? (Article in World Geostrategic Insights) (Original commentary)

 

Taiwan

Post-script on Taiwan (Feature article for the UK Liberal Democrats) 

American senators land in Taipei, trip likely to irritate China - but what is the end-game? (Live interview on PressTV) 

U.S. reaffirms partnership with Chinese Taipei during high-level visit (Live interview on Press TV)

China’s navy says ongoing drills near Taiwan to become regular (Live interview on Press TV)

 

Hong Kong

Changes at the top of the Hong Kong government (Backchat discussion on RTHK (Radio Television Hong Kong) 

Hong Kong's Apple Daily to shut down in a few days after asset frozen - smoke and mirrors  (Backchat discussion on RTHK (Radio Television Hong Kong) 

June 4 in Hong Kong under National Security Law (Backchat discussion on RTHK (Radio Television Hong Kong and a brief note on the future of Hong Kong Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movements of China) 

Hong Kong to introduce Beijing-imposed electoral reform - whys and wherefores (Backchat discussion on RTHK (Radio Television Hong Kong) and a SCMP video documentary China’s Rebel City: The Hong Kong Protests.

Hong Kong Immigration Bill amendment controversy (Backchat discussion on RTHK (Radio Television Hong Kong) 

Suspension of HK protest documentary "Inside the Red Brick Wall"  (Backchat discussion on RTHK (Radio Television Hong Kong) 

 

North Korea

North Korea rules out 'any contact' with US (Live interview on Press TV and a Foreign Policy report) 

Pyongyang accuses Washington of insulting dignity of North Korean leadership ( (Live interview on Press TV)

 

Russia 

Russia warns against Ukraine-NATO activities (Live interview on Press TV) 

 

Belt and Road  

Sri Lanka handing control over Hambantota Port to China  (Live TV panel discussion on CNN News 18 of India) 

 

History

Admiral Zheng He may have explored the New World way before Christopher Columbus (Exploring Zheng He's possible footprints in the New World) 

 

Cheer up and chill out

 

Here's a repertoire of inspirational music, videos, songs and words. There is also a collection in Chinese.

Invitation for expressions of interest in investment opportunities

An upended world abounds with fresh BUY and SELL investment opportunities on many fronts across the globe, including new technologies, new markets and new businesses. If you wish to avail yourself of my business network worldwide, please drop me a line on a strictly no-commitment basis initially. A UK property and alternative asset opportunity is featured here .

Consultation services

Please email me at andrewkpleung@gmail.com or text my Hong Kong mobile +852 98198987.  I can also be reached on Skype at andrew.k.p.leung, LinkedIn at andrewleunginternational, Whatsapp at (852) 98198987, WeChat at Andrewkpleung, Facebook at andrewkinpongleung, and Twitter at @Andrewkpleung

Speaking and lecturing invitations

I am open to invitations or proposals for speaking engagements, visiting lectures and tailor-made electives as a visiting/adjunct professor. 

Business networking and speaking platform in Hong Kong

As an Advisor to the Denmark-based Executives' Global Network Hong Kong, I welcome your suggestion of a suitable speaker for an EGN event in Hong Kong. This will be entirely at our own cost with acknowledgement of your support, provided that we are not asked to cover any speaking fee, travel or accommodation expenses.

RSS feed and weblinks

My postings are regularly uploaded under my three blogs CHINAwatch, Publications and What is New on www.andrewleunginternationalconsultants.com  A collection of leading China media and research sites can be found under China Links.

Please feel free to save my website on your computer, laptop, tablet, Blackberry, iPhone or iPad as a reference resource. If you wish instant access as soon as my postings appear, just click on “Subscribe to this blog’s feed” under RSS Feed on top of the right-hand column of each blog. Select the appropriate Google feed option. It is free of charge.  

This newsletter is uploaded to my website here. You may save it for reference or reading at leisure and to share it on Facebook, LinkedIn, WhatsApp, Twitter or other social media devices.

Courtesies

I look forward to your guidance, advice, comments, suggestions, and criticisms. You may share the above contents with colleagues or friends. You are also welcome to publish any of them with full attribution. 

If you think that I may add value to your endeavors in any way, please let me know how I may help.  If for any reason you do not wish to receive my emails, just ask me to delete your name from my databank permanently. 

Best personal regards, 

Andrew K.P. Leung, SBS, FRSA

International and Independent China Strategist

www.andrewleunginternationalconsultants.com  

Positions  

Chairman and CEO, Andrew Leung International Consultants and Investments Limited

(Founded in London, now re-incorporated in Hong Kong; name changed from Andrew Leung International Consultants Limited as from 10 July, 2017) 

China Futures Fellow, Berkshire Publishing Group, Massachusetts, USA (2011-13)
Brain Trust member, The Evian Group (global think-tank), Lausanne, Switzerland

Gerson Lehrman Group (Global Experts) Council Member
International Expert, Reuters Insight Community of Experts, Thomson Reuters 

Senior Analyst, Wikistrat, a cloud-sourced global strategic consultancy based in Tel Aviv and Washington D.C. 

Senior Consultant, MEC International (a UK-based global strategic energy consultancy) 

Distinguished Contributor, Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance (ATCA) (global think-tank)

Professor of Practice, Hong Kong Institute of Education for Sustainable Development (2018-20)

Download Certificate of Appointment as Professor of Practice

Certified Sustainable Development Planner, World Institute of Sustainable Development Planners

Download Certificate of Recognition as Certified Sustainable Development Planner

Fellow of the Royal Society for the Encouragement of Arts, Manufactures and Commerce (FRSA)
Elected Member, Royal Society for Asian Affairs

Think-tank Research Fellow, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai Campus, PRC (14.4.2017-13.4.2020) 

Advisory Board member, The e-Centre , European Centre for e-Commerce and Internet Law, Vienna 

Honorary Adviser, International Institute of Management (IIM) 

Advisory Board member, The Global Analyst, India

Honorary President, China Hong Kong Economic and Trading International Association (from 28 March, 2016) 

Download 中國香港國際經貿合作協會簡介和組織架構  

Download A brief introduction to the China-Hong Kong Economic and Trading International Association

Global Commercial Agent, Changsha City, China

Hong Kong Advisory Board member, Denmark-based Executive Global Network (EGN)

Visiting Professor, London Metropolitan University Business School 

Governing Council Member, King’s College London, UK (2004-2010)
Advisory Board member, China Policy Institute, Nottingham University, UK (2005 -2010)

Visiting Professor, Sun Yat-sen University Business School, China (2005-10)
Founding Chairman, China Group, Institute of Directors City Branch, London, UK (2006-2010)
Vice Chairman, 48 Group Club, UK (2008-2010)
Committee Member of RSA, London Region, UK (2006-2010)
Included in UK's Who's Who since 2002
Awarded the Silver Bauhinia Star (SBS) in the July 2005 Hong Kong Honours List  

The Future of Power Is Transcontinental, Submarine Supergrids: China wants to lead the way in creating a global energy internet

The above Bloomberg Businessweek Report dated 9 June, 2021 flags up a looming game changer in global renewable energy dynamics. As solar, wind and other renewable energies are intermittent, a great deal of the energy produced is simply wasted. If such energies could be transmitted across regions or even continents without massive loss of power, this would open up a brave new world of exploiting gigantic reservoirs of inexhaustible renewables such as the world's largest deserts or wind plains.

Transmission across extremely long distances depends on cross-region infrastructural capacities of High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) power lines. This is catching on in Western nations including the United States, Japan and Western Europe. HVDC power lines become economical over distances higher than about 500 miles (800km) above ground, and 31 miles (50km) for buried and submarine cables.

According to the Report, China has both a manufacturing and technological edge in Ultra-High-Voltage Direct Current (UHVDC) transmission lines, and has taken a lead in proposing global technical standards and governance for them. (High voltage cables are classed as 500 kilovolts and above, while ultra-high voltage—a Chinese specialty—operate at 800 kilovolts or above.)

The report says:

"If transcontinental, submarine electricity superhighways indeed lie in our shared future, China is showing the way. In December, it completed a $3.45 billion, 970-mile-long, 800-kilovolt UHVDC line to carry solar- and wind-generated power from the high Tibetan plains to China’s center. That followed construction of a 1.1 million-volt cable that can transmit up to 12,000 megawatts of power—a little more than the entire installed generation capacity of Ireland—from the deserts and mountains of Xinjiang province to the doorstep of Shanghai, almost 2,000 miles east."

"The global supergrid effort has been spearheaded by Liu Zhenya, a former head of the State Grid Corp. of China (SGCC), who chairs the Global Energy Interconnection Development and Cooperation Organization, a UN-backed body based in Beijing. Geidco’s phased plan starts by strengthening national grids and moves on to building regional networks, before finally—around 2070—completing construction of a full 18-channel Earth-spanning grid." (see map below)

"SGCC, which is the world’s largest utility, has been on a buying spree that’s enabling it to do some of that first-stage strengthening. Since 2008, it has acquired stakes as high as 85% in electricity distribution companies in the Philippines, Portugal, Australia, Hong Kong, Brazil, Greece, Italy, and last year, Oman. Other Chinese companies have also been buying shares in foreign grids."

However, it's very early days yet. Much of the seemingly grandiose plan remains a desk top exercise. Only the first stage of a Pakistan-China link, due to go live later this year, marks an exception.

Nevertheless, obvious security concerns are beginning to ring alarm bells. For sometime to come, any progress with trans-regional grids is likely to be measured and piecemeal. That said, Climate Change and Sustainable Development issues are poised to accelerate the dynamics for HDVC or UHVDC cross-region transmissions. Watch this space. 

Suspension of HK protest documentary "Inside the Red Brick Wall"

Backchat on 23 April 2021 with RTHK (Radio Television Hong Kong) (Go straight to the second last bar, marked "Documentaries")

MEDays Talks 2020

The MEDays Forum is an annual international conference in Tangier focusing on global issues attended by hundreds of delegates across the world. It is organized by the Amadeus Institute, a think tank under the auspices of HRH The King of Morocco. This year, thanks to Covid-19, the Forum moved online to take the form of MEDays Talks via Zoom, running from 10-17 November.

I was invited to speak on two panels  (a) AFRICA, ASIA AND SOUTH AMERICA (3A) : BUILDING STRONG SOUTH-SOUTH PARTNERSHIPS AFTER THE COVID-19 on 12 November and (b) US - CHINA : IS-IT THE PARADIGM SHIFT ? on 17 November.

Due to a last-minute hospitalization, I was unable to make the first panel. My Speaking Notes are here. Download MEDays 12.11.2020 - 3 As Cooperation

I was, however, fortunate to be able to take part on the second panel as scheduled. The full panel discussion is now available on YouTube. My Speaking Notes are here for reference. Download MEDays - US-China - 17.11.2020

Disqualification and resignation of Hong Kong's pan-democrats

Backchat on 11 November 2020 with RTHK (Radio Television Hong Kong) (My contribution started in the third bar (Part 2), time counter 05:26) 

Should HK permanent residents on the Mainland be assisted to exercise their right to vote

Backchat on 12 October 2020 with RTHK (Radio Television Hong Kong) (The relevant discussion is in the second last bar, starting from time counter 05:12. My intervention begins from time counter 12:23) 

The reality of China Scare and the resultant Age of Disorder

In an across-the-board analysis dated 14 October, 2019 for a controversial online platform, the Unz Review, Godfree Roberts delineates China's rapid and alarming catchup with the United States, including ascendance and even dominance in a panoply of great power metrics including Government, Leadership, Economy, Infrastructure, Geopolitics, Finance, Science, Technology, Trade, Social Indicators, Education, Law and Order, Faith in Future, Socio-Economic Ecology; Politics, Defense, Morale, and Long-term Economic Ascendancy.

The analysis, however, fails to acknowledge the unyielding dominance of the greenback, America's military sophistication and global reach, its leadership on the frontier of science and technology, its global network of allies, and the soft power of the "City upon a Hill". Nearly two and a half centuries of American ascendance and exceptionalism have driven a strong sense of self-denial that a "dictatorial" China, a once-backward country for well over a century, cannot be allowed to share power with the United States imbued with a "manifest destiny". 

Nevertheless, much of the prognosis has given substance to American paranoia or hysteria that an emerging  "Frankenstein" (in Secretary of State Mike Pomeo's words) with a diametrically-opposed value system and an alien civilization is setting out to destroy the US-led global liberal order. Across the political aisle, there is American consensus that China's rise must now be pushed back, contained, and thwarted across-the-board, at all costs, before it is too late. The outcome is the increasingly decoupling from China, protectionism, de-globalization, and the return of the rule of the jungle. 

China is deeply and intricately embedded in the whole world's supply and value chain, exemplified by concentration of the world's largest container ports on its shores. Some 124 countries across the globe have China as the largest trading partner, compared with 76 countries with the US. Many products, components and processes are globally diversified but with China as the central hub. Vigorous anti-China decoupling and fragmentation are massively disruptive to markets and economies worldwide.

The Age of Disorder has arrived, according to a Long-term Asset Return Study by Deutsche Bank, London dated 8 September, 2020, referring to upheavals of epochal US-China rivalry, a struggling European Union, Covid-19 impacts, rising inequality, worsening demographics, inter-generational divide, and climate change coming up close and personal. US strangling notwithstanding, the study expects that in nominal terms, China's economy will overtake the US by end decade, or thereabouts (p.6). 

Be that as it may, too much doom and gloom may be premature. The outcome of the coming US presidential election, China's next Five Year Plan (2021-25), recovery from Covid-19, coming-into-being of the world's largest free-trade bloc - the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the advent of 5G and "Internet of Things", emerging Eurasian economic and geopolitical gravitas, and maturing of international relations, all could recalibrate how the next new normal is going to work. 

Family gathering (1980's)

Download 8mm - Family gatheing 1980's (A children's birthday party at McDonald's)

The Coronavirus could usher in a Brave New World

China Is Maneuvering for International Leadership as the United States Falters, notes an article in Foreign Affairs dated 18 March, 2020 - The Coronavirus Could Reshape Global Order.

The piece flags up China's initial coverup and its subsequent turning of the table on Western narratives. Boosted by its position as the world's dominant producer of critical anti-virus equipment and supplies, China is positioning itself as a global saviour as much of the West, especially the United States, is overwhelmed by sheer lack of preparedness, worry over economic interests, and a certain amount of wishful thinking. 

The EU has recently sounded warning bells about China's geopolitical ambitions as it emerges from the crisis. While many countries are benefitting from China's timely supply of medical equipment, especially life-saving ventilators, there is growing international momentum involving China and other countries to coordinate efforts, and share experience, expertise and research for an effective vaccine. The G20 video conferencing on 26 March is an important milestone. 

As the Southern Hemisphere is beginning to stand on edge, the crisis seems just unfolding. There is critical demand for more WHO monitoring, openness of testing statistics, joint research into the virus's origin and behaviour, more emphasis on human lives, and greater leadership of the world's two superpowers - the United States and China.

What's more, it's important to remember viruses have no borders. Before raising accusing fingers, it is instructive to recall where the 2009-10 global H1N1 "swine fever" first started to spread, infecting some 1.3 billion people worldwide and causing well over half a million deaths. 

In any event, when the crisis is all over, the world will not be the same again.

A new world order is already emerging. Economic gravitas has been shifting away from developed countries. They are no longer key drivers of global growth. More countries will become sensitive to external dependence, especially on critical health and security architecture.

On the other hand, the whole world will become even more connected thanks to new digital technologies. Supply and value chains may change but they have become intricately intertwined across the globe that complete decoupling is unlikely to be possible. More people will become aware of each other country's interdependence, thanks to the Coronavirus and growing threats of Climate Change. 

China, for one, seems more prepared than others to embrace a looming Brave New World. China in a new Era of Global Disruptions, my latest PowerPoint presentation, may offer more food for thought.