(My quarterly Newsletter goes out to some 7,000 professional contacts worldwide. The following is my September 2018 issue. Back numbers may be accessed under What's New on this website)
Greetings! After an extended visit to Europe, I am back in Hong Kong for a long, hot summer. Temperatures are rising everywhere. An all-out great-power tussle masked as a trade war is being played out between the US and China. America First continues to be pressed home across the globe, weaponizing hegemonic powers in finance, trade and currency. Not even allies are spared. Decades of established global rules and norms are being up-ended. The only constants appear the laws of nature and the law of the jungle. As the big elephants fight, the "wary rest" are all hedging their bets. The world order as we know it is fracturing. Would all the king's horses and all the king's men come to the rescue if the king wants to start anew? How will China respond to the new paradigm?
Nevertheless, US frustrations with China's trade practices are widely shared. It is in China's interests to address them. However, any fundamental redress necessitates structural reforms to the Chinese economy already bracing from headwinds. China's retaliation against America's tariffs has so far been measured and targeted, with an eye to negotiations. But what reforms can China implement quickly? How would the trade war play out?
Amidst this great anxiety, the following may offer some fresh perspectives.
Trade war
US-China rivalry for power masked as a trade war (An in-depth analysis)
Trade War - live TV interview on TRT and radio interview on BBC (Cantonese channel) (A brief snapshot)
Behind the controversy over Huawei and ZTE (Live TV interview on ABC (Australia Broadcasting Corporation)
Trade war is part of push-back against China's challenge of a US-defined world order (An in-depth analysis)
US-China Trade War - Cooperation, not War, is key to Mutual Prosperity (Feature article in The Global Analyst, a leading business journal in India)
Never mind the trade war, this is how China and the US can both get what they want (Op-ed in the South China Morning Post, a shortened version of the foregoing)
A Multilateral and Strategic Response to International Predatory Economic Practices (US Senate Committee on Foreign Relations hearing)
Trade Architecture Needs to Accommodate Both US and Chinese Systems (A Hinrich Foundation article)
China fights back against America's threat to the China Dream but success is not assured (An analysis)
Geopolitics
Great Decisions 2018 - China and America: the new geopolitical equation (A presentation by the Dean of the School of Strategic Land Power at the US Army War College in Pennsylvania)
Top 10 largest economies in 2050 according to PricewaterhouseCoopers
Understanding China
The Four Traps China may fall into (Article by Yangzhong Huang of the Council on Foreign Relations, New York)
Economy and finance
Debunking Myths about China's Economy (Interview by Yukon Huang, Senior Fellow, Asia Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington D.C)
The real battle fields of US-China rivalry and China's bond market (A Gavekal Research report)
How much is China opening up its financial sector? (An Economist Intelligence Unit article)
China’s Financial Liberalization: Time to Restart (A research note by BBVA, a Spanish bank)
Belt and Road Initiative
The Belt and Road Initiative - Risks and Opportunities (An analysis based on research of The Economist and the Trade Development Council)
Military
An Accounting of China's Deployments to the Spratly Islands (An Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative article)
North Korea
North Korea accuses the US of double-dealing - What is happening? (Ins and outs of the latest twists and turns)
What is the significance of the Trump-Kim deal, including views by US allies (Live interview with Radio Sputnik of Moscow)
What to make of Giuliani's remark and prospects for a deal on eve of 12 June Trump-Kim Summit (An analysis including live interview on RT)
Trump's North Korean Summit on/off (Live TV interview on RT on 25 May)
Energy
China's Electricity Sector - A Lantau Group Report, April 2018
Ecology and Sustainability
China releases 2020 action plan for air pollution (A China Dialogue report)
Greening the Belt and Road Initiative (A WWF-HSBC Report)
Is China heading towards a water crisis? (A report for the House of Commons Foreign Relations Committee)
Urbanization and smart cities
China's city clusters - a new urbanization model? (An analysis and a panel discussion)
Hong Kong
Building the Future - how science and technology links the future of Hong Kong to the mainland (A NATURE business report)
What a smart city blueprint would look like - a Hong Kong example (A SCMP infographic summary of the Hong Kong Smart City Blueprint Consultancy Study)
Middle East
How Iran has been gaining in the Levant and how changing dynamics may reverse its fortune (A Britain Israel Communications and Research Center (BICOM) report)
How China and Germany could cooperate on salvaging the Iran nuclear deal? (Interview with Radio Sputnik of Moscow)
My coming speaking engagement in Tangier, Morocco
I have accepted an invitation as a Sponsored Speaker at the Amadeus Institute's 2018 MEDays Forum in Tangier, Morocco from 7-10 November. I will be speaking on The New Silk Road to Africa, South-South Partnership and Disruptive Leaders. I will be uploading my presentations on my website in due course.
Cheer up and chill out
My family summer holiday highlights in music videos
A repertoire of inspirational music, videos, songs and words, There is also a collection in Chinese.
Cross-border M & A propositions
You are welcome to send me propositions on a no-commitment basis initially.
Separately, you are welcome to reach out to my son Terence, a Cambridge-educated Prince Phillip Scholar and UK-qualified lawyer-turned-banker. He has over ten years M & A experience in London with Allen & Overy, Deutsche Bank, and Houlihan Lokey. He is now based in Abu Dhabi working on private equity with the Marya Group. His personal email address is [email protected]
Consultation services
Please email me at [email protected] or text my Hong Kong mobile +852 98198987. I can also be reached on Skype at andrew.k.p.leung, LinkedIn at andrewleunginternational, Whatsapp at (852) 98198987, WeChat at Andrewkpleung, Facebook at andrewkinpongleung, and Twitter at @Andrewkpleung
Speaking and lecturing invitations
I am open to invitations or proposals for speaking engagements, visiting lectures and tailor-made electives as a visiting/adjunct professor.
Business networking and speaking platform in Hong Kong
As an Advisor to the Denmark-based Executives' Global Network Hong Kong, I welcome your suggestion of a suitable speaker for an EGN event in Hong Kong. This will be entirely at our own cost with acknowledgement of your support, provided that we are not asked to cover any speaking fee, travel or accommodation expenses.
RSS feed and weblinks
My postings are regularly uploaded under my three blogs CHINAwatch, Publications and What is New on www.andrewleunginternationalconsultants.com A collection of leading China media and research sites can be found under China Links.
Please feel free to save my website on your computer, laptop, tablet, Blackberry, iPhone or iPad as a reference resource. If you wish instant access as soon as my postings appear, just click on “Subscribe to this blog’s feed” under RSS Feed on top of the right-hand column of each blog. Select the appropriate Google feed option. It is free of charge.
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Courtesies
I look forward to your guidance, advice, comments, suggestions, and criticisms. You may share the above contents with colleagues or friends. You are also welcome to publish any of them with full attribution.
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Best personal regards,
Andrew K.P. Leung, SBS, FRSA
International and Independent China Strategist
www.andrewleunginternationalconsultants.com
Positions
Chairman and CEO, Andrew Leung International Consultants and Investments Limited (Founded in London, re-incorporated in Hong Kong)
China Futures Fellow, Berkshire Publishing Group, Massachusetts, USA (2011-13) Brain Trust member, The Evian Group (global think-tank), Lausanne, Switzerland
Gerson Lehrman Group (Global Experts) Council Member International Expert, Reuters Insight Community of Experts, Thomson Reuters
Senior Analyst, Wikistrat, a cloud-sourced global strategic consultancy based in Washington D.C.
Senior Consultant, MEC International (a UK-based global strategic energy consultancy)
Distinguished Contributor, Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance (ATCA) (global think-tank) Fellow of the Royal Society for the Encouragement of Arts, Manufactures and Commerce (FRSA)
Elected Member, Royal Society for Asian Affairs
Think-tank Research Fellow, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai Campus, PRC (14.4.2017-13.4.2020)
Advisory Board member, The e-Centre, European Centre for e-Commerce and Internet Law, Vienna
Honorary Adviser, International Institute of Management (IIM)
Advisory Board member, The Global Analyst, India
Honorary President, China Hong Kong Economic and Trading International Association (from 28 March, 2016)
Download 中國香港國際經貿合作協會簡介和組織架構
Download A brief introduction to the China-Hong Kong Economic and Trading International Association
Global Commercial Agent, Changsha City, China
Hong Kong Advisory Board member, Denmark-based Executive Global Network (EGN)
Visiting Professor, London Metropolitan University Business School
Governing Council Member, King’s College London, UK (2004-2010) Advisory Board member, China Policy Institute, Nottingham University, UK (2005 -2010)
Visiting Professor, Sun Yat-sen University Business School, China (2005-10)
Founding Chairman, China Group, Institute of Directors City Branch, London, UK (2006-2010)
Vice Chairman, 48 Group Club, UK (2008-2010)
Committee Member of RSA, London Region, UK (2006-2010)
Included in UK's Who's Who since 2002
Awarded the Silver Bauhinia Star (SBS) in the July 2005 Hong Kong Honours List