What's New

Andrew's April 2024 Newsletter

(My quarterly Newsletters go out to some 8,000 professional contacts worldwide. The following is my April 2024 issue. Back numbers may be accessed under What is New on my website.)

Greetings! May I first wish you a forthcoming glorious summer! 

The world is at a rare inflexion point.  As many as 64 countries plus the European Union are having leadership elections this year, covering half of the world population and including those, like the U.S. and EU, of global consequence.

The U.S. is finding both feet stuck in deep mud over Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas conflict with humunitarian disasters of biblical proportions.  The EU is struggling to cope with both a much-weakened economy and the looming prospects of an unpredictable second Trump-adminstration.

China has re-emerged from the economic ravages of a historically severe pandemic. It is beginning to,find its feet in a world economy transformed by the Fourth and Fifth Industrial Revolutions of borderless digitital connectivity. Howewver, the US-let Western camp is doubling down on anti-China "de-risking" or decoupling, friendly rhetoric and diplomatic overtures notwithstanding.  

Amidst the smoke and mirrors of this uncertain year, the following may hopefully offer some fresh food for thought. 

Hong Kong
Article 23 legislation: Debunking fearmongering myths (Op-ed in China Daily) 
Explaining Hong Kong's enactment of Article 23 on national security (Live TV interview on Aljazeera English Channel)
Hong Kong passes its own version of national security law - Article 23 (Live TV interview on CNA, a Singapore-based transmedia channel)_  
Speculation about the SAR’s impending demise is overexaggerated (Op-ed in China Daily) 
Financial Secretary Paul Chan's attendance of the Davos 2024 World Economic Forum (Backchat on Radio Television Hong Kong (RTHK))
Xia Baolong's Hong Kong visit (Backchat on Radio Television Hong Kong (RTHK))

United States 
Why the United States is losing the plot over Ukraine and Gaza (An in-depth analysis) 
The U.S. Double Standard that Weakens its Global Leadership (Op-ed in Rome-based World Geostrategic Insights, republished in French, Spanish, Russian, and Arabic. An earlier, shorter version, Gaza, Ukraine, TikTok: US double standards are eroding its global power appeared in the South China Morning Post.)

China
Beijing is debunking ‘China threat’ myth through trade and cooperation (Op-ed in the South China Morning Post) Republished in Rome-based World Geostrategic Insights with attribiution in in French, Spanish, Russian, and Arabic. An abridged version appeared in the bottom front pages of the China Daily Global Editon (1) (2))
"Two Sessions" Beijing meeting - debunking some myths about China's economy (Backchat on Radio Television Hong Kong (RTHK))

Taiwan
Why Beijing needs to Sweeten the Carrot to Entice Taiwan’s People Towards Peaceful Unification (Op-ed in Rome-based World Geostrategic Insights, republished in French, Spanish, Russian, and Arabic.  An earlier, shorter version How Beijing can make reunification more appealing for Taiwanese appeared in the South China Morning Post with its prinited version entitled Outside the Box. 
What Taiwan’s election outcome means for China, US and the world (A report by the Anadulo Agency in Ankara, Turkey)
Ruling party candidate Lai Ching-te emerges victorious in Taiwan's election - implications (Exclusive live interview on TRT World) 

Israel-Hamas Conflict
China's mediating role in the Israel-Hamas conflict (An in-depth analysis) 
Gaza crie de ceour at the Academy Award 2024 (Video clip) 

Ukraine, Russia
Why Beijing insists on Russia's inclusion in any peace talks on Ukraine; why Biden suddenly offers an olive branch over nuclear armament talks with Russia and China (Exclusive recorded TV interview (in English) with MIC Izvestia, the largest Russian-language multi-media channel based in Moscow) 

TikTok
US TikTok ban a double-standard excuse to appropriate a valuable Chinese asset (Recorded interview (in English) with Russian-language CBC TV Azerbijan)

Climate Change
Climate action: how China is accelerating the drive towards a net zero world (Op-ed in the South China Morming Post) See a a coincidedntal Time Magazine piece How 2024 Will Be a Watershed Climate Moment for China 

India
"China Knows India Isn't Weak" (Live TV panel discussion on NDTV)

World
2024: Year of Living Dangerously (A PowerPoint presentation) 
Megatrends To 2050: Geopolitical Fragmentation To Accelerate, Raising Global Risks  (Forecast by BMI, a FitchSolutions Company) .  

Cheer Up and Chill Out

A 10-point Multimedia Outlook on Life  (Music video)
Inspirational videos and excerpts for life's down-moments

Forhcoming summer sojourn in London
I will be staying in London from beginning of July through early September. I am open to any invitation to speak or get together in London or in the vincinity. 

International investment opportunities
I am on the International Advisory Board of Silk Road Partners, an international investment firm. Mr Yves Leterme, ex-Prime Minister of Belgium (November 2009 to December 2011) has joined the same Board. If you are interested in getting in touch with us, please give me a shout.

Consultation services
Please email me at [email protected] or text my Hong Kong mobile +852 98198987.I can also be reached on Skype at andrew.k.p.leung, LinkedIn at linkedin.com/in/andrewleunginternational, Whatsapp at (852) 98198987, WeChat at Andrewkpleung, Facebook at andrewkinpongleung, and Twitter at @Andrewkpleung

Business networking and speaking platform in Hong Kong
As an Advisor to the Denmark-based Executives' Global Network Hong Kong, I welcome your suggestion of a suitable speaker for an EGN event in Hong Kong. This will be entirely at our own cost with acknowledgement of your support, provided that we are not asked to cover any speaking fee, travel or accommodation expenses.

RSS feed and weblinks
My posts are regularly uploaded under my three blogs CHINAwatch, Publications and What's New .A collection of leading China media and research sites can be found under China Links.

Please feel free to save my website on your computer, laptop, tablet, iPhone or iPad as a reference resource. If you wish instant access as soon as my postings appear, just click on “Subscribe to this blog’s feed” under RSS Feed on top of the right-hand column of each blog. Select the appropriate Google feed option. It is free of charge.

This newsletter is uploaded to my website here.You may save it for reference or reading at leisure. You are free to share it on Facebook, LinkedIn, WhatsApp, Twitter or other social media devices.

Courtesies
I look forward to your guidance, advice, comments, suggestions, and criticisms. You may share the above contents with colleagues or friends. You are also welcome to publish any of them with full attribution.

If you think that I may add value to your endeavors in any way, please let me know how I may help.If for any reason you do not wish to receive my emails, just ask me to delete your name from my data bank permanently.

Best personal regards,

Andrew K. P. Leung, SBS, FRSA  
International and Independent China Strategist
Andrew Leung International Consultants and Investments Company Limited

Positions

Chairman and CEO, Andrew Leung International Consultants and Investments Limited

(Founded in London, now re-incorporated in Hong Kong; name changed from Andrew Leung International Consultants Limited as from 10 July, 2017) 

China Futures Fellow, Berkshire Publishing Group, Massachusetts, USA (2011-13)
Brain Trust member, The Evian Group (global think-tank), Lausanne, Switzerland

Gerson Lehrman Group (Global Experts) Council Member
International Expert, Reuters Insight Community of Experts, Thomson Reuters 

Senior Analyst, Wikistrat, a cloud-sourced global strategic consultancy based in Tel Aviv and Washington D.C. 

Download Wikistrat Excellence Award

Senior Consultant, MEC International (a UK-based global strategic energy consultancy) 

Distinguished Contributor, Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance (ATCA) (global think-tank)

Professor of Practice, Hong Kong Institute of Education for Sustainable Development (2018-20)  

Download Certificate of Appointment as Professor of Practice

Certified Sustainable Development Planner, World Institute of Sustainable Development Planners

Download Certificate of Recognition as Certified Sustainable Development Planner

Fellow of the Royal Society for the Encouragement of Arts, Manufactures and Commerce (FRSA)
Elected Member, Royal Society for Asian Affairs

Contributing author, Politics Today

Think-tank Research Fellow, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai Campus, PRC (14.4.2017-13.4.2020) 

International Advisory Board Member, Silk Road Partners

Download Silk Road Partners - corporate profile 24-06-2022 

Download Silk Road Partners 2023

Advisory Board member, The e-Centre , European Centre for e-Commerce and Internet Law, Vienna 

Honorary Adviser, International Institute of Management (IIM) 

Advisory Board member, The Global Analyst, India

Honorary President, China Hong Kong Economic and Trading International Association (from 28 March, 2016) 

Download 中國香港國際經貿合作協會簡介和組織架構 (28.03.2023)  

Download A brief introduction to the China-Hong Kong Economic and Trading International Association

Global Commercial Agent, Changsha City, China

Hong Kong Advisory Board member, Denmark-based Executive Global Network (EGN)

Visiting Professor, London Metropolitan University Business School 

Governing Council Member, King’s College London, UK (2004-2010)
Advisory Board member, China Policy Institute, Nottingham University, UK (2005 -2010)

Visiting Professor, Sun Yat-sen University Business School, China (2005-10)
Founding Chairman, China Group, Institute of Directors City Branch, London, UK (2006-2010)
Vice Chairman, 48 Group Club, UK (2008-2010)
Committee Member of RSA, London Region, UK (2006-2010)
Included in UK's Who's Who since 2002
Awarded the Silver Bauhinia Star (SBS) in the July 2005 Hong Kong Honours List 

Andrew's April, 2022 Newsletter

(My quarterly Newsletter goes out to some 8,000 professional contacts worldwide. The following is my April 2022 issue. Back numbers may be accessed under What's New on my website) 

Greetings! 

Amidst a resurgent Omicron pandemic and the unfolding Ukraine Crisis, the world has changed beyond recognition. Jabs and movement restrictions are everywhere. We are becoming more home-bound and sanitation-conscious. For the first time since the Second World War, an unthinkable conflagration in Ukraine has been ignited by President Putin, reminiscent of the days of the Romanovs.

Refugees of biblical proportions are pouring across Ukraine's neighborhood. Food, fertilizer, and energy prices are playing havoc with people's lives and economies across the globe. Behind the destruction and gun smoke, a game of chicken is intensifying amongst the world's great powers, threatening Armageddon.  

What's likely to be the endgame? Who are the possible winners and losers? Where does China stand? The following may hopefully throw up some fresh perspectives. 

Ukraine Crisis

Professor John Mearsheimer: The Crisis in Ukraine ( A King's College London Zoom interview plus Mearsheimer's April 2019 Paper)

How to resolve the Ukrainian crisis (Op-ed in Rome-based World Strategic Insights) 

Ukraine crisis - rhetoric and reality (Live interview on Press TV)

US says China will bear responsibility if it supports Russia’s military action in Ukraine (Live interview on Press TV) 

US warns China that it will face consequences if it helps Russia evade sanctions (Live interview on Press TV) 

Is Russia's Ukraine Invasion Altering The World Order? (Live TV panel debate on India's Republic TV) 

Will Russia & The U.S Go To War Over Ukraine? (Live TV panel debate on India's Republic TV) 

Has The West Failed Ukraine As Russian Troops Surround Kyiv? (Live TV panel debate on India's Republic TV) 

US-China relations and geopolitics

To avert mutual destruction, President Biden should shift his Administration's focus from "maximum confrontation" to "constructive re-engagement" (Feature article in The Global Analyst)  Republished by World Strategic Insights with permission, including in French, Spanish, Russian and Arabic. 

What the West gets wrong about China  (A Re-Orient! Podcast. Click on the arrow bar) 

Dynamics and Repercussions of China's Rise and the Contest for Global Order (An in-depth analysis including the military)      

"China-U.S. confrontation all over the place now", regardless of reason   (Live interview on Press TV) 

US, Japan to sign new military partnership deal aimed at China, Russia, North Korea  (Live interview on Press TV) 

US-China standoff over Taiwan (Pre-recorded TV interview on Persian-language Iran International) 

US to pay unbearable price over Taiwan (Live interview on Press TV) 

North Korea

North Korean leader orders the expansion and modernizing of satellite launching station (Live interview on Press TV) 

UN report says N Korea pressed ahead with nuclear, missile programs despite sanctions (Live interview on Press TV) 

"North Korea not planning to attack any country" (Live interview on Press TV) 

What message is behind North Korea's hypersonic missile test  (Live interview on Press TV) 

US hits North Korean officials with sanctions after missile test (Live interview on Press TV) 

China's challenges 

Building China 3.0 - Final Sprint toward the China Dream (PowerPoint lecture for the Ljubljana Confucius Institute, Slovenia) 

China: Time of Xi  ( A 3-part TV documentary introducing President Xi's vision of the China Dream)

"One-China policy has become hollow" (Live interview on Press TV) 

China's Economy 

Winter Olympics: Boost to China's Economy? (Feature article in The Global Analyst) 

China: Is Slowdown for Real? (Feature article in The Global Analyst)

Hong Kong 

BBC HARDtalk - Hong Kong's One Country Two Systems dying under new National Security Law and electoral changes? (Heated debate with The Honorable Dominic Lee, freshly-elected young Hong Kong legislator) 

Cheer up and chill out

I have added some inspirational translations to the repertoire of inspirational music, videos, songs and words.

Invitation for expressions of interest in investment opportunities

An upended world abounds with fresh BUY and SELL investment opportunities on many fronts across the globe, including new technologies, new markets and new businesses. If you wish to avail yourself of my business network worldwide, please drop me a line on a strictly no-commitment basis initially. 

Consultation services

Please email me at [email protected] or text my Hong Kong mobile +852 98198987.  I can also be reached on Skype at andrew.k.p.leung, LinkedIn at andrewleunginternational, Whatsapp at (852) 98198987, WeChat at Andrewkpleung, Facebook at andrewkinpongleung, and Twitter at @Andrewkpleung

Speaking and lecturing invitations

I am open to invitations or proposals for speaking engagements, visiting lectures and tailor-made electives as a visiting/adjunct professor. 

Business networking and speaking platform in Hong Kong

As an Advisor to the Denmark-based Executives' Global Network Hong Kong, I welcome your suggestion of a suitable speaker for an EGN event in Hong Kong. This will be entirely at our own cost with acknowledgement of your support, provided that we are not asked to cover any speaking fee, travel or accommodation expenses.

RSS feed and weblinks

My postings are regularly uploaded under my three blogs CHINAwatch, Publications and What is New on www.andrewleunginternationalconsultants.com  A collection of leading China media and research sites can be found under China Links.

Please feel free to save my website on your computer, laptop, tablet, Blackberry, iPhone or iPad as a reference resource. If you wish instant access as soon as my postings appear, just click on “Subscribe to this blog’s feed” under RSS Feed on top of the right-hand column of each blog. Select the appropriate Google feed option. It is free of charge.  

This newsletter is uploaded to my website here. You may save it for reference or reading at leisure and to share it on Facebook, LinkedIn, WhatsApp, Twitter or other social media devices.

Courtesies

I look forward to your guidance, advice, comments, suggestions, and criticisms. You may share the above contents with colleagues or friends. You are also welcome to publish any of them with full attribution. 

If you think that I may add value to your endeavors in any way, please let me know how I may help.  If for any reason you do not wish to receive my emails, just ask me to delete your name from my databank permanently. 

Best personal regards, 

Andrew K. P. Leung, SBS, FRSA               
International and Independent China Strategist
www.andrewleunginternationalconsultants.com 

Positions  

Chairman and CEO, Andrew Leung International Consultants and Investments Limited

(Founded in London, now re-incorporated in Hong Kong; name changed from Andrew Leung International Consultants Limited as from 10 July, 2017) 

China Futures Fellow, Berkshire Publishing Group, Massachusetts, USA (2011-13)
Brain Trust member, The Evian Group (global think-tank), Lausanne, Switzerland

Gerson Lehrman Group (Global Experts) Council Member
International Expert, Reuters Insight Community of Experts, Thomson Reuters

Senior Analyst, Wikistrat , a cloud-sourced global strategic consultancy based in Washington D.C.

Senior Consultant, MEC International (a UK-based global strategic energy consultancy) 

Distinguished Contributor, Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance (ATCA) (global think-tank)

Professor of Practice, Hong Kong Institute of Education for Sustainable Development (2018-20)

Certified Sustainable Development Planner, World Institute of Sustainable Development Planners

Fellow of the Royal Society for the Encouragement of Arts, Manufactures and Commerce (FRSA)

Elected Member, Royal Society for Asian Affairs

Think-tank Research Fellow, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai Campus, PRC (14.4.2017-13.4.2020) 

Advisory Board member, The e-Centre , European Centre for e-Commerce and Internet Law, Vienna 

Honorary Adviser, International Institute of Management (IIM) 

Advisory Board member, The Global Analyst, India

Honorary President, China Hong Kong Economic and Trading International Association (from 28 March, 2016) 

Global Commercial Agent, Changsha City, China

Hong Kong Advisory Board member, Denmark-based Executive Global Network (EGN)

Visiting Professor, London Metropolitan University Business School 

Governing Council Member, King’s College London, UK (2004-2010)
Advisory Board member, China Policy Institute, Nottingham University, UK (2005 -2010)

Visiting Professor, Sun Yat-sen University Business School, China (2005-10)
Founding Chairman, China Group, Institute of Directors City Branch, London, UK (2006-2010)
Vice Chairman, 48 Group Club, UK (2008-2010)
Committee Member of RSA, London Region, UK (2006-2010)
Included in UK's Who's Who since 2002
Awarded the Silver Bauhinia Star (SBS) in the July 2005 Hong Kong Honours List 

A new Asian Century looms?

The Future is Asian , proclaims Parag Khanna, acclaimed globalist and author of this seminal book launched in February 2019.

According to the book review on Amazon.com, "Far greater than just China, the new Asian system taking shape is a multi-civilizational order spanning Saudi Arabia to Japan, Russia to Australia, Turkey to Indonesia—linking five billion people through trade, finance, infrastructure, and diplomatic networks that together represent 40 percent of global GDP. China has taken a lead in building the new Silk Roads across Asia, but it will not lead it alone. Rather, Asia is rapidly returning to the centuries-old patterns of commerce, conflict, and cultural exchange that thrived long before European colonialism and American dominance. Asians will determine their own future—and as they collectively assert their interests around the world, they will determine ours as well".

Evidently, Khanna's Asia is far more extensive, extending to Russia and the Middle East. A more circumscribed study of the emerging dominance of Asia comes in the form of a discussion paper dated September 2019 by McKinsey Global Institute- The future of Asia: Asian flows and networks are defining the next phase of globalization .

The paper makes the following salient observations -

(a) By 2017, Asia accounted for 42% of global GDP in terms of purchasing power parity, ahead of 40% of Europe and North America combined. By 2040, Asia's share is expected to increase to 52% in PPP terms and 46% in real terms, representing 39% of global consumption. 

(b) Global cross-border flows are shifting toward Asia on seven of eight dimensions—trade, capital, people, knowledge, transport, culture, resources, and the environment. The only flow that has declined is waste (environment).

(c) Asia’s integration is increasing with a shift toward regionalization. 60% of goods traded, 71% of investment in start-ups and 59% of foreign direct investment (FDI) are intraregional, with 74% travelling within the region.

(d) Asia is not monolithic but rich in diversity, resilience, and competitive strengths, yet highly integrated and mutually complimentary in metrics of innovation, market, labour, capital and cultural diversity. 

(e) There are Four Asia's: Advanced Asia (Australia, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore, and South Korea) with strengths in technology, capital and high-end consumption; China, a class of its own, acting as Asia's anchor an hub in connectivity and a hotbed for innovation; Emerging Asia (Bhutan, Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam) with dynamism in labor productivity, growth potential and intraregional connectivity; and India and Frontier Asia (Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Fiji, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Maldives, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) with a large, young population and broader range of external trading relationships outside Asia.

(f) By 2040, China's GDP is likely to reach $36 trillion, bigger than the rest of the Four Asia's combined ($31 trillion) 

(g) As China shifts from labour-intensive manufacturing, thanks to US-China trade war, Emerging and Frontier Asia's are picking up a share of this relocation. Advanced Asia and China are leading start-ups in Emerging Asia. 

(h) Asia is a dynamic hub for people, idea and culture flows. By 2018, outbound international airline passengers had risen to more than 415 million. A number of cities are becoming more cosmopolitan, such as Seoul, Bangkok, Manila, Hanoi, and Auckland.

It is evident that the 21st century is being redefined by Asia's growing connectivity and gravitas, where China is likely to exercise an outsized role. Apart from the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), the New Development Bank, and the Belt and Road, China and much of the rest of Asia will be even more closely bound together when the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) Agreement is concluded by the end of this year. This will cover ASEAN and all their respective free trade agreement partners, representing 47.4% of world population, 32.2% of global economy, 29.1 % of global trade, and 32.5% of global investment flows.

There are also good reasons for China to be welcomed and to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement between Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, and Vietnam effective December 2018. 

Against the above background, any grand strategy to isolate or decouple China may increasingly seem like a pipedream. 

Listen to a McKinsey podcast for a Conversation about the Future of Asia.

How 5-S holistic harmonization with China’s global connectivity including Belt and Road may drive a New Era of Common Destiny with America

My PowerPoint presentation at the Beijing Institute of Technology, Zhuhai Campus, China, 2 - 4 April, 2018 where I was a Distinguished Keynote Speaker at the 22nd International Conference on ISO & TQM - Cultural Harmonization via ISO & TQM for the OBOR Countries. 

Download Zhuhai 2018 - 5-S holistic harmonization of China's Belt and Road

Below is an Abstract of my presentation.

Download Abstract - 22-ICIT Zuhai Conference 2018 - 5-S holistic harmoinization of human progress

 

Andrew's July 2017 Newsletter

Greetings! Let me first wish you an enjoyable and rewarding summer. 

 

While uncertainties remain around the globe, a less murky picture begins to emerge. Trump holds fast to his unpredictable persona and his transactional "America First" unilateralism, calling into question the United States' post-war leadership in the global commons. With a fractured Europe remaining to be healed and a Middle East mired in factional rivalries, China's growing international influence is increasingly sought after, lack of capacity and reluctance to step into America's shoes notwithstanding. This begs the question how the world order will be modified and how relations with Beijing should be managed, including, perhaps, future prospects for Hong Kong's One Country, Two Systems.  

 

For your summer reading, may I offer the following perspectives - 

 

Hong Kong

 

How a delicate balance under One Country, Two Systems may guarantee its attractiveness beyond 2047 (Op-ed in the South China Morning Post) 

HKSAR's 20th Anniversary - Has One Country Two Systems worked? (A Sky News live interview) 

Hong Kong SAR's 20th Anniversary - how to better connect Hong Kong's young generation (A TV panel discussion on The Point with Beijing's CGTN (re-styled from CCTV) 

Economic Cooperation in the Greater Bay Area  (Back Chat show with Radio Hong Kong) 

 

China business

 

A new era of China global influence - internet media and films, droves and electric car batteries (An in-depth analysis) 

China’s New FTZ Negative List Removes Restrictions on Foreign Investment (A China Briefing report) 

Digital China - The Middle Kingdom of Cyber Space?  (An analysis of the growing power of China's internet economy) 

A Profitable Partnership Under Stress: Why it makes sense to ratchet-down US-China trade tensions (A Hindrich Foundation report) 

Internet Economics Models, Mechanisms and Management (An e-book with my Forward on page 1) 

China Business - Landscape and Strategies - A 2017 Routledge Book by Dr Hong Liu (Second Edition) (A holistic introduction to China business with my endorsement on the back cover). 

 

New era of paradigm shifts

 

The global forces inspiring a new narrative of progress (A McKinsey Quarterly analysis) 

 

Military and security

 

China starts to build its military-industrial complex and is launching an "unhackable" quantum network (A commentary on the latest development)

Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China  (2017 US Annual Report to Congress) 

Japanese Defense Minister asks U.S. troops not to conduct drills (Live TV interview with RT) 

Tensions rise as third missile tests in a month conducted by North Korea (Live TV interview with RT) 

UAE promotes strategy to counter cyber terrorism (Snapshots of a Conference in Abu Dhabi) 

 

International relations

 

All Measures Short of War: The contest for the 21st century and the future of American power (A Brookings Institution discussion on a new book by Thomas Wright) 

Indo-China Relation: Border standoff, what’s the way forward? (Live TV debate on India's NDTV program "The Big Fight")

Can India break the China-Pakistan axis? (Live TV debate on "The Big Fight") 

Panama cuts ties with Taipei in favor of China (Live interview with Radio Sputnik, Moscow) 

By defining his goals more narrowly than previous presidents, Trump may halt Pyongyang's weapons program (An insight from Eric X Li) 

THAAD may exacerbate rather than solve the North Korean problem (Live TV interview with RT) 

The Korean Nuclear Issue: Past, Present and Future - A Chinese Perspective (An analysis by Madam Fu Ying, chairperson of China's Foreign Affairs Committee of the National People’s Congress) 

 

Sustainable development

 

China’s belt and road can lead the world to a greener future (Op-ed in the South China Morning Post) 

Governance recipe for sustainable development in Central Asia with One Belt, One Road (Paper and PowerPoint presentation for conferences in Cambridge University and Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai Campus, China )   

Water security threats demand new collaborations: Lessons from the Mekong River Basin (An Economist Intelligence Unit report) 

 

Financial reform           

 

Beijing doubles down on financial reforms as domestic and external situations ease (An analysis of the mixed outcome)

 

Cheer up and chill out

 

A reportoire of inspirational music, videos, songs and words, There is also a collection in Chinese.

 

Cross-border M & A propositions

 

You are welcome to send me propositions on a no-commitment basis initially. Please limit details to a one-page PDF document, including key financial data, photo images, contact phone numbers and email addresses. 

 

Separately, you are welcome to reach out to my son Terence, a Cambridge-educated Prince Phillip Scholar and UK-qualified lawyer-turned-banker. He has over ten years M & A experience in London with Allen & Overy, Deutsche Bank, and Houlihan Lokey. He now works on private equity with Abu Dhabi's Marya Group. His personal email address is [email protected] 

 

Consultation services

 

Please email me at [email protected] or text my Hong Kong mobile +852 98198987.  I can also be reached on Skype at andrew.k.p.leung, LinkedIn at andrewleunginternational, Whatsapp at (852) 98198987, WeChat at Andrewkpleung, Facebook at andrewkinpongleung, and Twitter at @Andrewkpleung

 

Speaking and lecturing invitations

 

Please email any invitations or proposals for speaking engagements, visiting lectures and tailor-made electives as a visiting/adjunct professor. 

 

Business networking and speaking platform in Hong Kong

 

As an Advisor to the Denmark-based Global Executive Network Hong Kong, I welcome your suggestion of a suitable speaker for an EGN event in Hong Kong. This will be entirely at our own cost with acknowledgement of your support, provided that we are not asked to cover any speaking fee, travel or accommodation expenses.

 

RSS feed and weblinks

 

My postings are regularly uploaded under my three blogs CHINAwatch, Publications and What is New on www.andrewleunginternat ionalconsultants.com  A collection of leading China media and research sites can be found under China Links. Please feel free to save my website on your computer, laptop, tablet, Blackberry, iPhone or iPad as a reference resource. If you wish instant access as soon as my postings appear, just click on “Subscribe to this blog’s feed” under RSS Feed on top of the right-hand column of each blog. Select the appropriate Google feed option. It is free of charge. This newsletter is uploaded to my website here. You may save it for reference or reading at leisure and to share it on Facebook, LinkedIn, Whatsapp, Twitter or other social media devices. 

 

Courtesies

 

I look forward to your guidance, advice, comments, suggestions, and criticisms. You are welcome to share any of my papers, articles, presentations, and TV interviews with your colleagues or friends. You are also welcome to publish any of them with full attribution.

 

If you think that I may add value to your endeavours in any way, please let me know how I may help.  If for any reason you do not wish to receive my emails, just ask me to delete your name from my databank permanently.

 

Best personal regards,

 

Andrew K.P. Leung, SBS, FRSA
International and Independent China Strategist

www.andrewleunginternationalconsultants.com

 

Positions

 

Chairman and CEO, Andrew Leung International Consultants Limited

(Founded in London, now re-incorporated in Hong Kong)

Honorary President, China Hong Kong Economic and Trading International Association (from 28 March, 2016) 

Download 中國香港國際經貿合作協會簡介和組織架構  

Download A brief introduction to the China-Hong Kong Economic and Trading International Association

China Futures Fellow, Berkshire Publishing Group, Massachusetts,USA (2011-13)
Brain Trust Member, The Evian Group (global think-tank), Lausanne, Switzerland

Gerson Lehrman Group (Global Experts) Council Member 
International Expert, Reuters Insight Community of Experts, Thompson Reuters

Senior Analyst, Wikistrat, a cloud-sourced global strategic consultancy

Senior Consultant, MEC International (a UK-based global strategic energy consultancy) 

Distinguished Contributor, Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance (ATCA) (global think-tank)
Fellow of the Royal Society for the Encouragement of Arts, Manufactures and Commerce (FRSA)
Elected Member, Royal Society for Asian Affairs

Visiting Professor, London Metropolitan University Business School

Think-tank Research Fellow, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai Campus, PRC (14.4.2017-13.4.2020) 

Advisory Board Member, The e-Centre, European Centre for e-Commerce and Internet Law

Advisory Board Member, The Global Analyst, India

Hong Kong Advisory Board Member, Denmark-based Executive Global Network (EGN)

Honorary Adviser, International Institute of Management (IIM) 

Global Commercial Agent, Changsha City, China

(The following until 19 May 2010, on permanent relocation back to Hong Kong)

Governing Council Member, King’s College London, UK (2004-2010)
Advisory Board Member, China Policy Institute, Nottingham University, UK (2005 -2010)
Founding Chairman, China Group, Institute of Directors City Branch, London, UK (2006-2010)
Vice Chairman, 48 Group Club, UK (2008-2010)
Committee Member of RSA, London Region, UK (2006-2010)

Visiting Professor, Sun Yat-sen University Business School, China (2005-10)

Included in UK's Who's Who since 2002
Awarded the Silver Bauhinia Star (SBS) in the July 2005 Hong Kong Honours List  

China’s New FTZ Negative List Removes Restrictions on Foreign Investment

China Briefing, a business intelligence report dated 28 June from Dezan Shira & Associates, gives details of China’s latest liberalized Free Trade Zones (FTZ) Negative List. This removes certain restrictions on foreign investments. According to the report, 27 special administrative measures have been removed from the 2015 list. 10 are related to manufacturing, four to finance, and four to other services.

The new negative list reduces restrictions in over 20 industries, including railway transport equipment, pharmaceuticals, road transport, insurance, accounting and audit, and other commercial services. Foreign investors are no longer be obligated to enter into a joint venture when engaging in rail transport equipment or civilian satellite manufacturing, as well as certain types of civilian helicopter design and production, for instance. Details of the liberalization is contained in the attachment.  Download China liberlized Negative List for FDIs-

A similar liberalized negative list is expected to be introduced for the rest of China, effective in 2018, easing restrictions in similar industries including rail transport equipment and mining.

The unprecedented expansion of the global middle class

In his Paper of February, 2017, Homi Kharas, a senior fellow and deputy director of the Global Economy and Development program at the Brookings Institution, outlines the unprecedented expansion of the global middle-class, 88% in Asia.

The following are extracts from his report - 

• There were about 3.2 billion people in the middle class at the end of 2016, 500 million more than .... previously estimated. This implies that in two to three years there might be a tipping point where a majority of the world’s population, for the first time ever, will live in middle-class or rich households.

• The rate of increase of the middle class, in absolute numbers, is approaching its all-time peak. Already, about 140 million are joining the middle class annually and this number could rise to 170 million in five years’ time.

• An overwhelming majority of new entrants into the middle class— ..... 88 percent of the next billion—will live in Asia.

• The absolute market size of middle-class spending is larger than previously estimated. In 2015, middle-class spending was about $35 trillion (in 2011 PPP terms), roughly 12 percent higher than ... previous estimate. It now accounts for one-third of the global economy.

• The global middle-class market is now clearly bifurcated: a slow-growing developed country middle class, and a fast-growing emerging economy middle class—with growth in both instances measured in terms of either numbers of people or total spending.

• The most dynamic segment of the global middle-class market is at the lower end of the scale, among new entrants with comparatively low per capita spending.

• Big geographic distributional shifts in markets are happening, with China and India accounting for an ever-greater market share, while the European and North American middle class basically stagnates.

• At a growth of about 4 percent in real terms, the middle-class market is growing faster than global GDP growth, but not as fast as it did in the 1960s and 1970s, the boom years for the middle class.

A larger middle-class population and market has significant environment and social implications. Naturally, assuming technology does not change, the carbon footprint per person will rise as the middle class expands.

Two mitigating factors could limit the extent of this. First, middle-class growth is associated with migration from rural to urban areas and, for a given level of income, households in urban areas tend to have a smaller carbon footprint than households in rural areas, especially for transport. Second, middle-class households tend to invest more in their children’s education and this, in turn, can reduce fertility rates and decrease the long-term population trajectory for the world.

The social implications of a larger middle class are also important. There is considerable evidence that a larger middle class will also imply a happier population, at least for new entrants into the middle class (Kahneman and Deaton, 2010). But there is little evidence to suggest that this will create pressures for more democratic governance or for better delivery of public services, both of which are required for sustained growth. In fact, governments may find themselves unable to meet the growing expectations for middle-class enhancing programs, such as universal health care, public education, pensions, and affordable housing, without resorting to deeply unpopular tax increases.

Getting the right balance between taxes on the middle class and services to support them likely presents the greatest source of uncertainty for this paper’s forecasts.

Download Brookings - Homi Kharas - Global Middle Class Expansion

"China gasses up for a new Golden Age"

Referring to a newly released IEA Medium Term Gas Market Report, an article in Foreign Policy highlights the following takeways -

(a) China is embracing a "Golden Age of Gas" with a vengeance, likley to account for half the increase in global demand for the rest of the decade, both through home production and more importantly through imports;

(b) The United States is unlikley to become the global dominant supplier just yet, but poised to grab about 5% of global gas trade and to disproportionally influence global gas prices through significally-lower domestic gas price levels;

(c) Europe is likely to remain reliant on Russia gas and is not about to turn things around with a "European shale gas revolution" due to offsetting declining production from traditional sources, a weak economy and infrastructural bottlenecks.

A collection of key reserach materials on the "Golden Age of Gas" can be accessed here