What's New: Urbanization

September 30, 2024

Hong Kong plays key role in national development

Exclusive interview on RTHK (Radio Television Hong Kong) aired on 30 September 2024.

Posted at 01:46 PM in Asia, Biotechnology, BRICS, China Business, China's politics, China's Rise, Consumption, Current Affairs, Democracy, Development_, e-Commerce, Economy, Emerging Economies, Energy, EU, Europe, Finance, Future, Geopolitics, History, Hong Kong, ICT, Innovation, Investment , Macao, Manufacturing , Middle Class, Politics, Population, Public health , Regional development, Science, South China Sea, South Korea, Southeast Asia, Sustainable Development, Taiwan, Technology, Travel, UK, United States, Urbanization, World | Permalink | Comments (0)

September 22, 2024

Andrew's October 2024 Newsletter

(My quarterly Newsletters go out to some 8,000 professional contacts worldwide. The following is my October 2024 issue. Back numbers may be accessed under What is New on my website.)

Greetings! I hope you have had a rewarding and enjoyable summer!

Barring uncertain outcome of the U.S. Election, American foreign policy continues to be dictated by chauvinistic hubris and political correctness borne of decades of American primacy and exceptionalism. This translates into an obsession with shaping the world in America's own image and bending countries to suit American interests, at the expense of balkanizing the world into divided camps. China, America's perceived primary "challenger", remains the elephant in the room.

The jury is still out on how best the United States should respond to an overhyped "existential threat" from China, how it could realize sustainable peace in the Middle East, and what role it should play to resolve the bloody Russia-Ukraine connundrum for a more peaceful Europe.

Serial U.S. proactive actions or measures, whether sanctions or shuttle diplomacy, seem to be running around in circles, talking past opposite numbers, if not tilting at windmills, while humanitarian crises deepen in war zones and disruptions continue to degrade livelihoods across the globe.

Absent cool-headed analysis of viable and sustainable endgames, confrontation hardly equates to credible strategy. Apart from the scale and dimension of China's rise including the best support of its people, we now live in a very different and closely-connected world, driven by the digital Fourth and Fifth Industrial Revolutions, rampant pandemics, and multifacted impacts of quickening Climate Change.

The following may hopefully offer some different perspectives, if not practical insights for making the world a better place.

Great Power Rivalry
To avert Thucydides Trap, US should compete with China in Olympic spirit (Op-ed in China Daily). Sanitized and abridged versions in Chinese can be accessed here and here.
U.S. and China: Edging Toward the Brink? (An Aspen Institute discussion by eminent international experts)
The Arctic Silk Road (TV panel discussion on TRT World)
Malaysia's bid to join Brics - implications (Backchat on RTHK (Radio Television Hong Kong)

China-Africa
China-Africa Summit 2024 - Implications (Backchat on RTHK)

China's development
Gradual increase of Mainland China's retirement age - Implication (BachChat on RTHK)
China's Third Plenum 2024 - Behind the jargons and the rhetoric (Full-length feature article in The Global Analyst)
"China needs more than hikes in Total Factor Productivity to realize its 2035 ambition" (An in-depth analysis)
How to read China correctly in the coming Third Plenum (An in-depth analyis)

China's auto industry
A CSIS podcast (An in-depth discussion by American experts)

Hong Kong
Enacting HKETO Certification Act will sacrifice Washington’s own interests (Op-ed in China Daily)
Hong Kong Editors Convicted of Sedition in "Blow to Press Freedom" (Live TV interview on Aljazeera English Channel)

Climate Change
Fast fashion typified by SHEIN invokes ecological backlash (TV panel discussionn on TRT World)

UK
2024 UK election result - implications (Backchat on RTHK)

Cheer Up and Chill Out

A 10-point Multimedia Outlook on Life (Music video)
Inspirational videos and excerpts for life's down-moments

International investment opportunities
I am on the International Advisory Board of Silk Road Partners, an international investment firm. Mr Yves Leterme, ex-Prime Minister of Belgium (November 2009 to December 2011) has joined the firm as Senior Partner. If you are interested in getting in touch with us, please give me a shout.

Consultation services
Please email me at [email protected] or text my Hong Kong mobile +852 98198987. I can also be reached on Skype at andrew.k.p.leung, LinkedIn at linkedin.com/in/andrewleunginternational, Whatsapp at (852) 98198987, WeChat at Andrewkpleung, Facebook at andrewkinpongleung, and Twitter at @Andrewkpleung

RSS feed and weblinks
My posts are regularly uploaded under my three blogs CHINAwatch, Publications and What's New .A collection of leading China media and research sites can be found under China Links.

Please feel free to save my website on your computer, laptop, tablet, iPhone or iPad as a reference resource. If you wish instant access as soon as my postings appear, just click on “Subscribe to this blog’s feed” under RSS Feed on top of the right-hand column of each blog. Select the appropriate Google feed option. It is free of charge.

This newsletter is uploaded to my website here. You may save it for reference or reading at leisure. You are free to share it on Facebook, LinkedIn, WhatsApp, Twitter or other social media devices.

Courtesies
I look forward to your guidance, advice, comments, suggestions, and criticisms. You may share the above contents with colleagues or friends. You are also welcome to publish any of them with full attribution.

If you think that I may add value to your endeavors in any way, please let me know how I may help. If for any reason you do not wish to receive my emails, just ask me to delete your name from my data bank permanently.

Best personal regards,

Andrew K. P. Leung, SBS, FRSA
International and Independent China Strategist
Andrew Leung International Consultants and Investments Company Limited

Positions

Chairman and CEO, Andrew Leung International Consultants and Investments Limited

(Founded in London, now re-incorporated in Hong Kong; name changed from Andrew Leung International Consultants Limited as from 10 July, 2017)

China Futures Fellow, Berkshire Publishing Group, Massachusetts, USA (2011-13)
Brain Trust member, The Evian Group (global think-tank), Lausanne, Switzerland

Gerson Lehrman Group (Global Experts) Council Member
International Expert, Reuters Insight Community of Experts, Thomson Reuters

Senior Analyst, Wikistrat, a cloud-sourced global strategic consultancy based in Tel Aviv and Washington D.C.

Download Wikistrat Excellence Award

Senior Consultant, MEC International (a UK-based global strategic energy consultancy)

Distinguished Contributor, Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance (ATCA) (global think-tank)

Professor of Practice, Hong Kong Institute of Education for Sustainable Development (2018-20)

Download Certificate of Appointment as Professor of Practice

Certified Sustainable Development Planner, World Institute of Sustainable Development Planners

Download Certificate of Recognition as Certified Sustainable Development Planner

Fellow of the Royal Society for the Encouragement of Arts, Manufactures and Commerce (FRSA)
Elected Member, Royal Society for Asian Affairs

Contributing author, Politics Today

Think-tank Research Fellow, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai Campus, PRC (14.4.2017-13.4.2020)

International Advisory Board Member, Silk Road Partners

Download Silk Road Partners - corporate profile 24-06-2022

Download Silk Road Partners 2023

Advisory Board member, The e-Centre , European Centre for e-Commerce and Internet Law, Vienna

Honorary Adviser, International Institute of Management (IIM)

Advisory Board member, The Global Analyst, India

Honorary President, China Hong Kong Economic and Trading International Association (from 28 March, 2016)

Download 中國香港國際經貿合作協會簡介和組織架構 (28.03.2023)

Download A brief introduction to the China-Hong Kong Economic and Trading International Association

Global Commercial Agent, Changsha City, China

Hong Kong Advisory Board member, Denmark-based Executive Global Network (EGN)

Visiting Professor, London Metropolitan University Business School

Governing Council Member, King’s College London, UK (2004-2010)
Advisory Board member, China Policy Institute, Nottingham University, UK (2005 -2010)

Visiting Professor, Sun Yat-sen University Business School, China (2005-10)
Founding Chairman, China Group, Institute of Directors City Branch, London, UK (2006-2010)
Vice Chairman, 48 Group Club, UK (2008-2010)
Committee Member of RSA, London Region, UK (2006-2010)
Included in UK's Who's Who since 2002
Awarded the Silver Bauhinia Star (SBS) in the July 2005 Hong Kong Honours List

Posted at 02:43 PM in Africa, Asia, Banking, Biotechnology, BRICS, China Business, China's politics, China's Rise, Climate Change , Consumption, Currencies, Current Affairs, Defense, Democracy, Denuclearization, Development_, e-Commerce, Economics, Economy, Emerging Economies, Energy, EU, Eurasia, Europe, Finance, Food and Water Security, Future, Geopolitics, Globalization, Healthcare, Hong Kong, Innovation, Investment , Japan, Manufacturing , Middle Class, Middle East, Military, North Korea, Population, Regional development, Russia, Science, Sustainable Development, Taiwan, Technology, Terrorism , United States, Urbanization, World | Permalink | Comments (0)

August 27, 2024

Fast fashion typified by SHEIN invokes ecological backlash

TV panel discussion on RoundTable with TRT World on 23 August 2024

Posted at 03:34 AM in Climate Change , Consumption, Current Affairs, Development_, e-Commerce, Economics, Emerging Economies, Energy, Ethics, EU, Europe, Food and Water Security, Future, Geopolitics, Globalization, Innovation, Latin America, Lifestyle, Manufacturing , Middle Class, Philosophy, Population, Regional development, Southeast Asia, Sustainable Development, Television, Turkey, UK, United States, Urbanization, World | Permalink | Comments (0)

June 19, 2024

Andrew's July 2024 Newsletter

(My quarterly Newsletters go out to some 8,000 professional contacts worldwide. The following is my July 2024 issue. Back numbers may be accessed under What is New on my website.)

Greetings! May I first wish you and family a most prosperous and rewarding summer!

Electoral dynamics are mutating in many countries, not least the United States, the United Kingdom and France, tilting towards right-wing nationalism, xenophobia, and isolationism. These are now mixed with momentous repercussions to the global order with intensifying Great Power rivalry, a protracted Ukraine War, and a catastrophic Israel-Hamas conflict. These challenges, perhaps "not seen for a hundred years", are taxing countries' ability to transcend short-termism and self-denial.

Meanwhile, the digital, technological, and borderless Fourth and Fifth Industrial Revolutions are transforming how people live and work, how businesses are conducted, how deep reaches on the planet and outer space may be explored, how wars are fought, and how nations interact and defend themselves. Concurrently, common challenges of Climate Change, mutating pandemics and nuclear proliferation are pushing nations closer together.

Hopefully the following may offer some useful perspectives.

World Order
With 3 wars and Taiwan, global inflection points are looming (Op-ed in the South China Morning Post)
China’s Alternative Order, and What America should Learn from It (Op-ed in Rome-based World Geostrategic Insights) Also published in French, Spanish, Russian, and Arabic Related commentary on Foreign Affairs think-piece
The United States, China, and the Future of the Global Order (An Asia Society New York panel discussion)
Where Global Governance Went Wrong—and How to Fix It (Commentary on Foreign Policy think-piece)
Ode to Peace (Song by Zhou Shen at the United Nations Chinese Language Day in New York )

International relations
How the US Keeps Fighting China, Knowing It Won’t Win? (Op-ed in Rome-based World Geostrategic Insights) Also published in French, Spanish, Russian, and Arabic. A related in-depth analysis
Nobody Is Competing With the U.S. to Begin With (Commentary on Foreign Policy think-piece)
Anti-China Cold War, TikTok, Ukraine, Gaza - video interviews with Izvestia (Recorded interview with Izvestia of Russia)
People-to-people exchanges would keep China-US relations in balance (Op-ed in China Daily)
Premiere Li Qiang's 3-party talks in Seoul with Japan and South Korea (Live exclusive TV interview with TRT World)
Xi Jinping's Europe visit implications (Backchat with RTHK (Radio Television Hong Kong)
What does President Xi's visit to Europe signify? (Recorded TV interview with NTV of Russia)
US Secretary of State Blinken to visit China (Exclusive TV interview with NDTV of India)
Majority in Southeast Asia would choose China over US, survey suggests (Singapore-based ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute report)

China
China has become a scientific superpower (Leader in The Economist)
An era of great misunderstanding of China (Op-ed in India-based Mero Tribune)
China’s Defense of Its Human R ights Policies (Penn State Journal of Law and International Affairs)

China's economy
Challenges and Prospects of the Chinese Economy (Exclusive in-depth video interview with Rome-based World Geostrategic Insights)
China Is Still Rising - Don’t Underestimate the World’s Second-Biggest Economy (Commentary on Foreign Affairs think-piece)
China: Keeping the dragon awake (Allianz Research)

The dollar
Report of the dollar's imminent demise is over-exaggerated (A succinct in-depth analysis)

Climate Change
Xi Thinks China Can Slow Climate Change. What if He’s Right? (Commentary on New York Times Guest Essay)

Hong Kong
Hong Kong convicts 14 activists of subversion (Exclusive recorded interview on BBC Newshour)
Hong Kong government spending - how to make more with less (Backchat with RTHK (Radio Television Hong Kong)

Cheer Up and Chill Out

A 10-point Multimedia Outlook on Life (Music video)
Inspirational videos and excerpts for life's down-moments

Forthcoming summer sojourn in London
I will be staying in London from the beginning of July through early September. I am open to any invitation to speak or get together in London or in the vicinity.

This newsletter is uploaded to my website here.You may save it for reference or reading at leisure. You are free to share it on Facebook, LinkedIn, WhatsApp, Twitter or other social media devices.

Best personal regards,

Andrew K. P. Leung, SBS, FRSA
International and Independent China Strategist
Andrew Leung International Consultants and Investments Company Limited

Positions

Chairman and CEO, Andrew Leung International Consultants and Investments Limited

(Founded in London, now re-incorporated in Hong Kong; name changed from Andrew Leung International Consultants Limited as from 10 July, 2017)

China Futures Fellow, Berkshire Publishing Group, Massachusetts, USA (2011-13)
Brain Trust member, The Evian Group (global think-tank), Lausanne, Switzerland

Gerson Lehrman Group (Global Experts) Council Member
International Expert, Reuters Insight Community of Experts, Thomson Reuters

Senior Analyst, Wikistrat, a cloud-sourced global strategic consultancy based in Tel Aviv and Washington D.C.

Download Wikistrat Excellence Award

Senior Consultant, MEC International (a UK-based global strategic energy consultancy)

Distinguished Contributor, Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance (ATCA) (global think-tank)

Professor of Practice, Hong Kong Institute of Education for Sustainable Development (2018-20)

Download Certificate of Appointment as Professor of Practice

Certified Sustainable Development Planner, World Institute of Sustainable Development Planners

Download Certificate of Recognition as Certified Sustainable Development Planner

Fellow of the Royal Society for the Encouragement of Arts, Manufactures and Commerce (FRSA)
Elected Member, Royal Society for Asian Affairs

Contributing author, Politics Today

Think-tank Research Fellow, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai Campus, PRC (14.4.2017-13.4.2020)

International Advisory Board Member, Silk Road Partners

Download Silk Road Partners - corporate profile 24-06-2022

Download Silk Road Partners 2023

Advisory Board member, The e-Centre , European Centre for e-Commerce and Internet Law, Vienna

Honorary Adviser, International Institute of Management (IIM)

Advisory Board member, The Global Analyst, India

Honorary President, China Hong Kong Economic and Trading International Association (from 28 March, 2016)

Download 中國香港國際經貿合作協會簡介和組織架構 (28.03.2023)

Download A brief introduction to the China-Hong Kong Economic and Trading International Association

Global Commercial Agent, Changsha City, China

Hong Kong Advisory Board member, Denmark-based Executive Global Network (EGN)

Visiting Professor, London Metropolitan University Business School

Governing Council Member, King’s College London, UK (2004-2010)
Advisory Board member, China Policy Institute, Nottingham University, UK (2005 -2010)

Posted at 06:08 PM in Asia, Banking, Biotechnology, BRICS, China Business, China's politics, China's Rise, Climate Change , Consumption, Currencies, Current Affairs, Defense, Democracy, Development_, e-Commerce, Economics, Economy, Emerging Economies, Energy, Ethics, EU, Eurasia, Europe, Finance, Future, Geopolitics, Globalization, Healthcare, Hong Kong, Innovation, Investment , Japan, Life, Manufacturing , Middle Class, Middle East, Military, North Korea, Population, Regional development, Russia, Science, Sustainable Development, Taiwan, Technology, Terrorism , United States, Urbanization, Vietnam, World | Permalink | Comments (0)

March 25, 2024

Andrew's April 2024 Newsletter

(My quarterly Newsletters go out to some 8,000 professional contacts worldwide. The following is my April 2024 issue. Back numbers may be accessed under What is New on my website.)

Greetings! May I first wish you a forthcoming glorious summer!

The world is at a rare inflexion point. As many as 64 countries plus the European Union are having leadership elections this year, covering half of the world population and including those, like the U.S. and EU, of global consequence.

The U.S. is finding both feet stuck in deep mud over Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas conflict with humunitarian disasters of biblical proportions. The EU is struggling to cope with both a much-weakened economy and the looming prospects of an unpredictable second Trump-adminstration.

China has re-emerged from the economic ravages of a historically severe pandemic. It is beginning to,find its feet in a world economy transformed by the Fourth and Fifth Industrial Revolutions of borderless digitital connectivity. Howewver, the US-let Western camp is doubling down on anti-China "de-risking" or decoupling, friendly rhetoric and diplomatic overtures notwithstanding.

Amidst the smoke and mirrors of this uncertain year, the following may hopefully offer some fresh food for thought.

Hong Kong
Article 23 legislation: Debunking fearmongering myths (Op-ed in China Daily)
Explaining Hong Kong's enactment of Article 23 on national security (Live TV interview on Aljazeera English Channel)
Hong Kong passes its own version of national security law - Article 23 (Live TV interview on CNA, a Singapore-based transmedia channel)_
Speculation about the SAR’s impending demise is overexaggerated (Op-ed in China Daily)
Financial Secretary Paul Chan's attendance of the Davos 2024 World Economic Forum (Backchat on Radio Television Hong Kong (RTHK))
Xia Baolong's Hong Kong visit (Backchat on Radio Television Hong Kong (RTHK))

United States
Why the United States is losing the plot over Ukraine and Gaza (An in-depth analysis)
The U.S. Double Standard that Weakens its Global Leadership (Op-ed in Rome-based World Geostrategic Insights, republished in French, Spanish, Russian, and Arabic. An earlier, shorter version, Gaza, Ukraine, TikTok: US double standards are eroding its global power appeared in the South China Morning Post.)

China
Beijing is debunking ‘China threat’ myth through trade and cooperation (Op-ed in the South China Morning Post) Republished in Rome-based World Geostrategic Insights with attribiution in in French, Spanish, Russian, and Arabic. An abridged version appeared in the bottom front pages of the China Daily Global Editon (1) (2))
"Two Sessions" Beijing meeting - debunking some myths about China's economy (Backchat on Radio Television Hong Kong (RTHK))

Taiwan
Why Beijing needs to Sweeten the Carrot to Entice Taiwan’s People Towards Peaceful Unification (Op-ed in Rome-based World Geostrategic Insights, republished in French, Spanish, Russian, and Arabic. An earlier, shorter version How Beijing can make reunification more appealing for Taiwanese appeared in the South China Morning Post with its prinited version entitled Outside the Box.
What Taiwan’s election outcome means for China, US and the world (A report by the Anadulo Agency in Ankara, Turkey)
Ruling party candidate Lai Ching-te emerges victorious in Taiwan's election - implications (Exclusive live interview on TRT World)

Israel-Hamas Conflict
China's mediating role in the Israel-Hamas conflict (An in-depth analysis)
Gaza crie de ceour at the Academy Award 2024 (Video clip)

Ukraine, Russia
Why Beijing insists on Russia's inclusion in any peace talks on Ukraine; why Biden suddenly offers an olive branch over nuclear armament talks with Russia and China (Exclusive recorded TV interview (in English) with MIC Izvestia, the largest Russian-language multi-media channel based in Moscow)

TikTok
US TikTok ban a double-standard excuse to appropriate a valuable Chinese asset (Recorded interview (in English) with Russian-language CBC TV Azerbijan)

Climate Change
Climate action: how China is accelerating the drive towards a net zero world (Op-ed in the South China Morming Post) See a a coincidedntal Time Magazine piece How 2024 Will Be a Watershed Climate Moment for China

India
"China Knows India Isn't Weak" (Live TV panel discussion on NDTV)

World
2024: Year of Living Dangerously (A PowerPoint presentation)
Megatrends To 2050: Geopolitical Fragmentation To Accelerate, Raising Global Risks (Forecast by BMI, a FitchSolutions Company) .

Cheer Up and Chill Out

A 10-point Multimedia Outlook on Life (Music video)
Inspirational videos and excerpts for life's down-moments

Forhcoming summer sojourn in London
I will be staying in London from beginning of July through early September. I am open to any invitation to speak or get together in London or in the vincinity.

International investment opportunities
I am on the International Advisory Board of Silk Road Partners, an international investment firm. Mr Yves Leterme, ex-Prime Minister of Belgium (November 2009 to December 2011) has joined the same Board. If you are interested in getting in touch with us, please give me a shout.

Consultation services
Please email me at [email protected] or text my Hong Kong mobile +852 98198987.I can also be reached on Skype at andrew.k.p.leung, LinkedIn at linkedin.com/in/andrewleunginternational, Whatsapp at (852) 98198987, WeChat at Andrewkpleung, Facebook at andrewkinpongleung, and Twitter at @Andrewkpleung

If you think that I may add value to your endeavors in any way, please let me know how I may help.If for any reason you do not wish to receive my emails, just ask me to delete your name from my data bank permanently.

Best personal regards,

Andrew K. P. Leung, SBS, FRSA
International and Independent China Strategist
Andrew Leung International Consultants and Investments Company Limited

Positions

Chairman and CEO, Andrew Leung International Consultants and Investments Limited

(Founded in London, now re-incorporated in Hong Kong; name changed from Andrew Leung International Consultants Limited as from 10 July, 2017)

China Futures Fellow, Berkshire Publishing Group, Massachusetts, USA (2011-13)
Brain Trust member, The Evian Group (global think-tank), Lausanne, Switzerland

Gerson Lehrman Group (Global Experts) Council Member
International Expert, Reuters Insight Community of Experts, Thomson Reuters

Senior Analyst, Wikistrat, a cloud-sourced global strategic consultancy based in Tel Aviv and Washington D.C.

Download Wikistrat Excellence Award

Senior Consultant, MEC International (a UK-based global strategic energy consultancy)

Distinguished Contributor, Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance (ATCA) (global think-tank)

Professor of Practice, Hong Kong Institute of Education for Sustainable Development (2018-20)

Download Certificate of Appointment as Professor of Practice

Certified Sustainable Development Planner, World Institute of Sustainable Development Planners

Download Certificate of Recognition as Certified Sustainable Development Planner

Fellow of the Royal Society for the Encouragement of Arts, Manufactures and Commerce (FRSA)
Elected Member, Royal Society for Asian Affairs

Contributing author, Politics Today

Think-tank Research Fellow, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai Campus, PRC (14.4.2017-13.4.2020)

International Advisory Board Member, Silk Road Partners

Download Silk Road Partners - corporate profile 24-06-2022

Download Silk Road Partners 2023

Advisory Board member, The e-Centre , European Centre for e-Commerce and Internet Law, Vienna

Honorary Adviser, International Institute of Management (IIM)

Advisory Board member, The Global Analyst, India

Honorary President, China Hong Kong Economic and Trading International Association (from 28 March, 2016)

Download 中國香港國際經貿合作協會簡介和組織架構 (28.03.2023)

Download A brief introduction to the China-Hong Kong Economic and Trading International Association

Global Commercial Agent, Changsha City, China

Hong Kong Advisory Board member, Denmark-based Executive Global Network (EGN)

Visiting Professor, London Metropolitan University Business School

Governing Council Member, King’s College London, UK (2004-2010)
Advisory Board member, China Policy Institute, Nottingham University, UK (2005 -2010)

Posted at 01:52 AM in Asia, Banking, Biotechnology, BRICS, China Business, China's politics, China's Rise, Climate Change , Consumption, Current Affairs, Defense, Democracy, Denuclearization, Development_, e-Commerce, Economics, Economy, Emerging Economies, Energy, Ethics, EU, Eurasia, Europe, Finance, Future, Geopolitics, Globalization, Healthcare, Hong Kong, Innovation, Investment , Lifestyle, Manufacturing , Middle Class, Middle East, Military, North Korea, Population, Regional development, Russia, Sports, Sustainable Development, Taiwan, Technology, Television, Travel, United States, Urbanization, Vietnam, World | Permalink | Comments (0)

February 23, 2024

2024: Year of Living Dangerously

A PowerPoint presentation to the Hong Kong EGN Chairmen Group on 22 February 2024. Download 2024 - Year of Living Dangerously

Posted at 01:29 PM in Africa, Asia, BRICS, China Business, China's politics, China's Rise, Cities, Climate Change , Consumption, Current Affairs, Defense, Democracy, Denuclearization, Development_, e-Commerce, Economics, Economy, Emerging Economies, Energy, Ethics, EU, Eurasia, Europe, Finance, Geopolitics, Globalization, Healthcare, Hong Kong, Innovation, Investment , Manufacturing , Middle Class, Middle East, Military, North Korea, Philosophy, Politics, Population, Regional development, Russia, South China Sea, Southeast Asia, Taiwan, Technology, Terrorism , Turkey, United States, Urbanization, Warfare, World | Permalink | Comments (0)

January 29, 2024

Megatrends To 2050: Geopolitical Fragmentation To Accelerate, Raising Global Risks

Megatrends to 2050 is a forecast, Global Country Risks, dated 20 June 2023 by BMI, a FitchSolutions Company.

The following are some salient excerpts -

(a) The world order will become increasingly multipolar over the coming three decades, as geopolitical influence disperses away from the US and emerging economies seek to increase their power in tandem with their economic and demographic weigh.

(b) Our GDP forecasts for 2050 envisage China and the US being by far the biggest economies with nominal GDPs of USD52.5trn and USD42.9trn respectively, far ahead of third-ranked India (USD16.3trn).

(c) Despite a probable shift towards geopolitical ‘bifurcation’ in the northern hemisphere, we see scope for an additional bloc or loose grouping centred around the ‘Global South’, with India, Indonesia, South Africa, Nigeria and Brazil becoming increasingly prominent on the world stage.

(d) A substantial increase in great power tensions would accelerate the fragmentation of the international system, as each great power would seek to build their own, largely exclusive, sphere of influence and economic linkages between rival powers would rapidly be unwound.

(e) Geopolitical considerations will increasingly supersede economic ones for governments and businesses in the post-Covid, post-Ukraine war international system.

(f) As the world becomes more multipolar, and as more economies acquire greater influence, the risk of major power conflict will increase.

(g) We believe that any hypothetical conflict between the US and China could be a defining moment for the international system. At the same time, we emphasise that great power conflict is by no means inevitable

(h) Against this backdrop, we also anticipate that more markets will acquire nuclear weapons, or at least the ability to develop them at short notice.

(i) The world order will also become more fluid over the coming decade or two, as a certain degree of ‘tactical’ shifting may take place by medium-sized markets seeking to maximise their ‘independence’

(j) For the foreseeable future, more markets will be at risk of becoming subsumed in ‘proxy’ conflicts between the major powers.

(k) We anticipate that multiple markets around the world, especially larger ones, will experience greater decentralisation pressures over the coming decades. In some cases, decentralisation will be a precursor to formal separatism, especially where separate cultural identities are the main drivers of autonomism.

(l) The EU is also analogous to some of these markets, and we anticipate continued tensions there between those that favour greater centralisation under Brussels and those that favour greater devolution of power back to nation states. These dynamics could be tested again if the continent experiences a similar crisis to that in the eurozone in 2010-2012.

(m) We believe that Russia is one of the most likely to experience greater autonomist or separatist pressures, as a long-term consequence of the war in Ukraine. Anecdotal reports suggest that Russia’s ethnic minorities have experienced disproportionately high casualties in the war, which may increase their sense of resentment towards Moscow. We also anticipate that Russia will emerge from the conflict substantially weaker militarily and economically poorer. This suggests that Moscow will have reduced ability to subsidise or militarily suppress potentially rebellious regions.

(n) We anticipate that urbanisation will continue in Emerging Markets, with the UN forecasting that the world’s urban population will rise from 55% of the global total in 2018 to 68% by 2050, with the bulk of this increase taking place in Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. With more people living in cities, social unrest and conflicts could lead to urban warfare. However, urbanisation is not necessarily irreversible.

(o) Despite the fact that globalisation has reached a plateau, we believe that inter-connectedness between cities spanning different markets and continents will be a key factor upholding some form of globalism.

(p) Some "known unkowns" -

Considerable question marks surround Russia’s ability to remain a major world power.
It is unclear if the Communist Party of China (CPC) can continue to hold a monopoly of power in Mainland China all the way out to 2050.
The EU could itself face centrifugal tendencies as a result of rising nationalism, which could be exacerbated by another financial crisis.
The US has become increasingly polarised, raising the possibility that it, too, could face internal upheaval that could force it to turn even more inward.

The above are by no means iconoclastic, mostly following current happenings. However, these predictions are dated June 2023, before the tide turned over the Ukraine War and the new Israel-Hamas crisis.

With the US and EU running short on financial, ammuntion, and political support for Ukraine, Russia remains resilient and may finally settle for a Ukraine deal in its favour, particularly in the event of Trump's return to the White House. This would tilt the global geopolitical balance against the Western camp.

At the same time, across the Middle East, the wider Global South, and various Western countries, the Gaza war is increasingly challenging the legitimacy of Israel's disproportionate reprisals and America's continuing support, regardless of Houhti's attack on selected civilian shipping in the Red Sea. In the circumstances, China and Russia are likely to benefit geopolitically as a result. How the Israel-Hamas War Is Tilting the Global Power Balance in Favor of Russia, China.

The predictions do not seem to take sufficient account of China's deeply-imbedded centrality in the global supply and value chain, US-led de-coupling or de-risking notwithstanding. By 2018, China has become a bigger trading partner for 128 of 190 countries than the US, according to the Lowy Institute. Seven of the world's top ten busiest container ports are in China (including Hong Kong). China is also the world’s largest manufacturer. Most of the world's consumer products, whether marked "Made in China" have incorporated China's inputs in terms of minerals and other materials, technical components, assembly or logistics.This centrality is likley to gain further momentum with the world's largest trading bloc, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnerswhip (RCEP) comprising ASEAN and its main trading partners including China, accounting for a third of global GDP and a third of the world's population. Additionally, China's ubiquitous Belt and Road Initiative, linking the world with overland and maritime infrastructure, has now been rejigged to become more indebtedness-and-ecology sensitive, as well as more open and inclusive of local stakeholders.

Neither have the predictions taken enough account of China's lead in 37 out of 44 cutting-edge technologies, according to ASPI's March 2023 Critical Techoilogy Tracker). These include certain sectors in Artificial Intelligence, quantum computing and Internet of Things (IoT) which are defining how people live, how businesses are conducted, and how national powers are measured in the 21st century. This lead is likely to endure, thanks to China's vast technological manpower pool. By 2025 Chinese universities will be producing more than 77,000 STEM PhDs per year compared to approximately 40,000 in the United States. Excluding international students, Chinese STEM PhD graduates would outnumber their U.S. counterparts more than three-to-one, according to George Town University's CSET (Center for Security and Emerging Technology).

China's current gloal gravitas is reflected in an analysis Which country has the most influence in the world? dated 29 January 2024 by the Red Team Analysis Society, a global geopolitical consultancy and think tank.

Last but not least, the predictions show insufficient recognition that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been evolving and become very adaptive in recent decades. Under its tutelage, the lives of 1.4 billion Chinese people have been dramatically transformed. Globally, it has become one of the governments most trusted and supported by its people, muliple ranks above many Western democracies including the United States, according to recent research conducted by the Harvard Kennedy School, 2023 Edelman Trust Barometer, and IPSOS Global Happiness 2023 Report. Current demographic, economic, and geopolitical headwinds notwithstanding, it is still too soon to conclude that China will never overtake the United States as the largest economy.

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March 26, 2023

Andrew's April 2023 Newsletter

(My quarterly Newsletters go out to some 8,000 professional contacts worldwide. The following is my April 2023 issue. Back numbers may be accessed under What is New on my website.)

Greetings!

From Europe to the Middle East, the world's geopolitical tectonic plates are shifting fast. Uncertain outcomes are confronting the Great Powers. America and its European allies remain united against a revanchist Russia. However, they appear anxious, if not paranoiac, about a rapidly rising, and sure-footed China, suddenly emerging from three years of pandemic lockdown to demonstrate its growing global gravitas. Meanwhile, a prolonged continental-scale proxy war over Ukraine has resulted in persistent inflation, repeated interest-rate hikes, social unrest, and an apparently contagious banking crisis.

Much of the West's mishaps and misguided actions reflects an unspoken denial. Unable to call all the shots, the West's absolute dominance over the world order no longer endures. While the art of peaceful, inclusive co-existence (or "harmony despite differences" according to ancient Chinese philosophy), has yet to be learnt, the world is becoming a more dangerous place. The supply of "depleted uranium shells" to Ukraine may risk bating a heavily-nuclear-armed Russia in a downward spiral towards nuclear Armageddon.

The following may offer fresh perspectives on some of the world's most critical flashpoints.

Xi-Putin Meet - Ukraine War
Deciphering the Xi-Putin meeting in Moscow (Exclusive live TV interview with RT)
Xi Jinping's Russia Visit: Official talks between Putin and Jinping held on March 21 (Live TV interview with WION TV of India)

Macron has urged Beijing to pressure Russia to end the war (Live exclusive interview on WION TV of India)

Two Sessions - National development
Eleven ways the two sessions will safeguard advancement of China 3.0 (Op-ed in China Daily) Republished by Rome-based World Geostrategic Insight in French, Spanish, Russian, and Arabic.
What were the key takeaways from China’s National Congress session? (Live exclusive TV interview on TRT World, based in Istanbul)

How country is overcoming demographic challenges (Op-ed in China Daily)
China a sunny spot amid global dark clouds (Op-ed in China Daily)
The Great Tech Rivalry - China v the US (A YouTube podcast of Harvard Kennedy School findings)
Economics of the Two Sessions in Beijing (Backchat on RTHK (Radio Television Hong Kong)
"After coming to live in China, I have loved it here" American digital entrepreneur Cyrus Janssen (TED Talk on YouTube)

"Most of what the Western media says about China is wrong" (A YouTube blog by retired Australian social-media commentator based in Zhongshan)

Minning Town - China's new popular TV series dubbed in English and Arabic (An overview)
"China has made considerable progress under Xi Jinping’s leadership" (Live interview with Press TV)
China will survive a pandemonium of surging infections to vindicate its “dynamic-zero” Covid strategy (By-invitation feature article in India's Mero Tribune)

Middle East

John Lee's Middle East trip rife with potential (Op-ed in China Daily)
Tehran is seeking to join the BRICS group of nations and China supports the bid (Exclusive live interview with Press TV)

Implications of Iran President Ebrahim Raisi's visit to Beijing (Exclusive live interview with Press TV)

US-China relations
Does US-hegemonic decline translate into a fight between “democracy” and “autocracy” in maintaining a benign world order? (Op-ed in Rome-based World Geostrategic Insights. Republished in French, Spanish , Russian, and Arabic
China's "global ambitions" according to two prominent Western sinologists (An In-depth analysis)

Is it too late for the US to contain China? (Aljazeera English TV interview with Kishore Mahbubani)
"China's Growth Is Seen As Threat To US' Hegemony” China Strategist (Live TV panel discussion on NDTV of India)

The Reckoning That Wasn’t : Why America Remains Trapped by False Dreams of Hegemony (An in-depth analysis)

“US trying to derail China as emerging rival” (Live interview with Press TV)

The Chinese Balloon Saga
'Balloon incident may not bode well for Biden, Xi' (Commentary quoted in article featured on Turkey's independent Anadolu Agency)

Chinese balloon over American homeland an unfortunate incident interrupting fence-mending efforts (Live exclusive TV interview with NDTV of India)
A straying Chinese balloon over Montana blows US-China talks off course, for now (Live TV interview with RT)

Australia and New Zealand
Australia to buy nuclear-powered submarines from US - implications (Live exclusive interview with RT)
New Zealand To Ban Chinese App TikTok On Government Devices After Ban In UK & U.S. (Live TV interview on India's Mirror Now TV)

India
The Debate: Xi Jinping Handed Unprecedented 3rd Term, What Does It Mean For India? (Live TV panel debate on Republic TV of India)

China, India power game for Sri Lanka; Russia, Pakistan oil deal (Live feature interview with Press TV)

North Korea
N Korea test-fires 2 submarine-launched strategic cruise missiles ahead of US-South Korea war-games (Live interview on Press TV)

North Korea says it has test-fired four strategic cruise missiles (Live interview with Press TV)

Roundup on China's Covid strategy
A roundup on China's Covid strategy (A live TV on-location recording for Russia's NTV's weekly analytical show)

Cheer up and chill out
I have added a new entry "A Flash of Inspiration" and some other translations to a repertoire of inspirational music, videos, songs and words.

My coming London sojourn mid-July through August
I will be staying in London from 17 July to 31 August, where I remain open to business meetings, interviews, speaking engagements, lectures, social get-togethers etc.

International investment opportunities
I have joined the International Advisory Board of Silk Road Partners, an international investment firm. See its corporate profile. Mr Yves Leterme, ex-Prime Minister of Belgium (November 2009 to December 2011) has joined the International Advisory Board. If you are interested in getting in touch with us, please give me a shout.

Consultation services
Please email me at [email protected] or text my Hong Kong mobile +852 98198987. I can also be reached on Skype at andrew.k.p.leung, LinkedIn at linkedin.com/in/andrewleunginternational, Whatsapp at (852) 98198987, WeChat at Andrewkpleung, Facebook at andrewkinpongleung, and Twitter at @Andrewkpleung

Business networking and speaking platform in Hong Kong
As an Advisor to the Denmark-based Executives' Global Network Hong Kong, I welcome your suggestion of a suitable speaker for an EGN event in Hong Kong. This will be entirely at our own cost with acknowledgement of your support, provided that we are not asked to cover any speaking fee, travel or accommodation expenses.

RSS feed and weblinks
My posts are regularly uploaded under my three blogs CHINAwatch, Publications and What's New . A collection of leading China media and research sites can be found under China Links.

Please feel free to save my website on your computer, laptop, tablet, iPhone or iPad as a reference resource. If you wish instant access as soon as my postings appear, just click on “Subscribe to this blog’s feed” under RSS Feed on top of the right-hand column of each blog. Select the appropriate Google feed option. It is free of charge.

This newsletter is uploaded to my website here.You may save it for reference or reading at leisure. You are free to share it on Facebook, LinkedIn, WhatsApp, Twitter or other social media devices.

Courtesies
I look forward to your guidance, advice, comments, suggestions, and criticisms. You may share the above contents with colleagues or friends. You are also welcome to publish any of them with full attribution.

If you think that I may add value to your endeavors in any way, please let me know how I may help. If for any reason you do not wish to receive my emails, just ask me to delete your name from my data bank permanently.

Best personal regards,

Andrew K. P. Leung, SBS, FRSA
International and Independent China Strategist
Andrew Leung International Consultants and Investments Company Limited

Positions

Chairman and CEO, Andrew Leung International Consultants and Investments Limited

(Founded in London, now re-incorporated in Hong Kong; name changed from Andrew Leung International Consultants Limited as from 10 July, 2017)

China Futures Fellow, Berkshire Publishing Group, Massachusetts, USA (2011-13)
Brain Trust member, The Evian Group (global think-tank), Lausanne, Switzerland

Gerson Lehrman Group (Global Experts) Council Member
International Expert, Reuters Insight Community of Experts, Thomson Reuters

Senior Analyst, Wikistrat , a cloud-sourced global strategic consultancy based in Washington D.C.

Senior Consultant, MEC International (a UK-based global strategic energy consultancy)

Distinguished Contributor, Asymmetric Threats Contingency Alliance (ATCA) (global think-tank)

Professor of Practice, Hong Kong Institute of Education for Sustainable Development (2018-20)

Certified Sustainable Development Planner, World Institute of Sustainable Development Planners

Fellow of the Royal Society for the Encouragement of Arts, Manufactures and Commerce (FRSA)

Elected Member, Royal Society for Asian Affairs

Think-tank Research Fellow, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai Campus, PRC (14.4.2017-13.4.2020)

International Advisory Board Member, Silk Road Partners

Download Silk Road Partners - corporate profile 24-06-2022

Advisory Board member, The e-Centre , European Centre for e-Commerce and Internet Law, Vienna

Honorary Adviser, International Institute of Management (IIM)

Advisory Board member, The Global Analyst, India

Honorary President, China Hong Kong Economic and Trading International Association (from 28 March, 2016)

Global Commercial Agent, Changsha City, China

Hong Kong Advisory Board member, Denmark-based Executive Global Network (EGN)

Visiting Professor, London Metropolitan University Business School

Governing Council Member, King’s College London, UK (2004-2010)
Advisory Board member, China Policy Institute, Nottingham University, UK (2005 -2010)

Awarded the Silver Bauhinia Star (SBS) in the July 2005 Hong Kong Honours List

Posted at 10:00 PM in Asia, Banking, Biotechnology, Books, Business promotion, China Business, China's politics, China's Rise, Cities, Climate Change , Consumption, Currencies, Current Affairs, Defense, Democracy, Development_, e-Commerce, Economy, Emerging Economies, Energy, EU, Europe, Finance, Food and Water Security, Future, Geopolitics, Globalization, Healthcare, History, Hong Kong, Innovation, Investment , Japan, Life, Manufacturing , Middle Class, North Korea, Philosophy, Population, Regional development, Russia, Science, Sustainable Development, Taiwan, Technology, Television, United States, Urbanization, Vietnam, World | Permalink | Comments (0)

December 26, 2022

Andrew's January 2023 Newsletter

(My quarterly Newsletter goes out to some 8,000 professional contacts worldwide. The following is my January 2023 issue. Back numbers may be accessed under What's New on my website)

Greetings! May I first wish you and your loved ones a Happy Holiday Season and a rewarding 2023!

As we experience some festive relaxation, dark clouds continue to gather on the horizon. How would the Ukraine war pan out, with Russia losing or regaining the upper hand? Is a new multipolar World Order beginning to take shape, or will American hegemony continue to endure? Would US-China relations stabilize into a new normal, flashpoints like Taiwan notwithstanding? How would China's population, a fifth of humanity, cope with a sudden transition from a "dynamic zero-Covid" strategy to "living with the virus", as the pandemic appears to morph into a less deadly endemic like many other countries?

Testing uncertainties remain. The following may hopefully offer some useful perspectives, including sunshine in the horizon.

World Order

How Xi’s Saudi Arabia visit shows rise of new world order beyond US hegemony (Op-ed in the South China Morning Post)

China-Arab ties enter new era Op-ed in China Daily national and global version; republished on Rome-based World Geostrategic Insights.

Momentum building for more inclusive global order (Op-ed in China Daily, national and global version). The Hong Kong version is titled US still mired in a 'Cold War' mindset, but the tide's turning Also published in Chinese by Hong Kong's Chinese media and by Rome-based World Geostrategic Insights in French, Spanish and Russian.

Russia's Medvedev met with President Xi alluding to emergence of new world order? (Exclusive live interview on RT)

China, including HK, could turn ‘winter of despair’ into ‘spring of hope’ (Op-ed in China Daily) Republished with attribution by World Geostrategic Insights in French, Spanish, Russian, Arabic and by Chinese media outlets (some abridged): 來論｜冬天來了，春天還會遠嗎？; 文匯論壇 | 香港如何在全球變局中轉危為機？

The West is misreading China’s Party Congress at the peril of world stability (Op-ed in Rome-based World Geostrategic Insights), republished in French, Spanish, Russian, and Arabic. Also appeared in China Daily

Cambridge Poll shows 70% of World Now Supports China (An analysis)

How the World Order is transforming into a Multipolar Contest for Global Power (and if a Brave New World is possible?) (An 80-slide PowerPoint presentation)

China urges US to abandon its bullying to reign in the Asian country’s development (Live discussion on Press TV)

Xi: China opposes interfering in other countries' domestic politics, opposes double standards (Interview with Press TV)

Forum MEDays 2022, Tangier, Morocco, 2-5 November; "From Crises to Crises; Towards a New World Order?" (Conference highlights)

China's Party Congress

Deciphering China's 2022 National Party Congress (Live TV interview with WION, India)

China's ruling party approves sweeping reshuffle at end of week-long gathering in Beijing (Live interview with Press TV)

President Xi opening the Party Congress - Hong Kong and Taiwan (Live interview with WION TV of India)

China's Party Congress underway (Live interview with NDTV of India)

20th Party Congress - Common Prosperity (RTHK Backchat)

应抓住世界百年未有之大变局加快粤港澳大湾区融合发展 (Chinese transcript of a talk "Seizing the opportunity of century to accelerate Greater Bay Area integration")

China's Covid strategy

Is China hiding its COVID-19 numbers? (TV panel discussion on TRT World)

China: dilemma of Zero-Covid strategy (Live TV interview with WION TV of India)

Is China's Covid model broken (Live interview with India Today TV)

China's Protests

Rare anti-Xi protest in Beijing days before China's Communist Party meet (Live TV panel discussion on India Today TV)

What actually happened outside the Manchester Chinese consulate (Live interview with RT)

Taiwan

President Xi doubles down on Taiwan; praises Hong Kong for emerging from chaos to governance (Interview with Press TV)

Ukrainian delegation visits Taiwan - why and wherefore (Live interview with RT)

North Korea

North Korea says needs indigenous missile program for self-defense (Live interview with Press TV)

North Korea: Missile tests self-defense against direct US military threats (Live panel discussion with Press TV)

Cheer up and chill out

Experiencing Tangier, Rabat, Chefchaouen (Blue City), and Casablanca (A music video clip)

I have added a new entry "Enjoying Nature to the Full" on Song Dynasty poet Lu You (陆游) and some other inspirational translations to my repertoire of inspirational music, videos, songs and words.

Speaking and lecturing opportunities

I will be having a month-long sojourn in London in March 2023. During my stay, I remain open to invitations or proposals for interviews, speaking engagements, visiting lectures or tailor-made electives as a visiting/adjunct professor.

International investment opportunities

I have joined the International Advisory Board of Silk Road Partners, an international investment firm. See its corporate profile. Mr Yves Leterme, ex-Prime Minister of Belgium (November 2009 to December 2011) has recently joined the International Advisory Board.

If you are interested in getting in touch with us, please give me a shout.

Consultation services

Please email me at [email protected] or text my Hong Kong mobile +852 98198987. I can also be reached on Skype at andrew.k.p.leung, LinkedIn at andrewleunginternational, Whatsapp at (852) 98198987, WeChat at Andrewkpleung, Facebook at andrewkinpongleung, and Twitter at @Andrewkpleung

Business networking and speaking platform in Hong Kong

As an Advisor to the Denmark-based Executives' Global Network Hong Kong, I welcome your suggestion of a suitable speaker for an EGN event in Hong Kong. This will be entirely at our own cost with acknowledgement of your support, provided that we are not asked to cover any speaking fee, travel or accommodation expenses.

RSS feed and weblinks

My postings are regularly uploaded under my three blogs CHINAwatch, Publications and What is New on wwwandrewleunginternationalconsultants.com A collection of leading China media and research sites can be found under China Links.

Please feel free to save my website on your computer, laptop, tablet, iPhone or iPad as a reference resource. If you wish instant access as soon as my postings appear, just click on “Subscribe to this blog’s feed” under RSS Feed on top of the right-hand column of each blog. Select the appropriate Google feed option. It is free of charge.

This newsletter is uploaded to my website here.You may save it for reference or reading at leisure. You are free to share it on Facebook, LinkedIn, WhatsApp, Twitter or other social media devices.

Courtesies

I look forward to your guidance, advice, comments, suggestions, and criticisms. You may share the above contents with colleagues or friends. You are also welcome to publish any of them with full attribution.

Best personal regards,

Andrew K. P. Leung, SBS, FRSA
International and Independent China Strategist
www.andrewleunginternationalconsultants.com