Publications

"China in a Changing World" - a presentation at the Forum Istanbul 2012

The Forum Istanbul 2012 was held at the Switssotel The Bosphorus from 26-27 April, 2012. My presentation was in Session One, following the Opening Addresses by The Honorable Egemen Bagis, Minister of European Union Affairs of Turkey and The Honorable M Zafer Caglayan, Ministerof Economy of Turkey.

http://www.forumistanbul.com/english/?page_id=273

Download Forum Istanbul 2012 photos and Thank-you letter

"Social and Economic Challenges for Tomorrow" - Three possible future scenarios

Three possible future scenarios are deduced from insights on the "Social and Economic Challenges for Tomorrow" from specially commissioned articles for the Centenary Future Risks Series Report 2 Click here of the Chartered Institute of Insurance, the world's leading professional insurance organization with 100,000 members in 150 countries worldwide.

According to the Institute's press release dated 3 April 2012 -

"the report predicts three possible scenarios based on insight derived from specially-commissioned essays by five leading experts including:

- David Smith of the Sunday Times on UK competitive advantage
- George Magnus of UBS tackling the economic implications of global longevity trends
- Dr Uri Dadush of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace on the long-term economic outlook for the USA
- Andrew Leung, China specialist on the future of Chinese monetary policy (My note- pages 26-32)
- Laurence Whitehead of Oxford Analytica dealing with uncertainty in an increasingly globalised and risk averse world

The three future scenarios deduced from their arguments set out very different outcomes for the world and the financial services sector:

In the Upside Scenario, the West is resurgent while the East thrives, with countries collaborating on the major socioeconomic problems. In the insurance sector, Western companies remain competitive though pressurised by Asian providers.

The Central Scenario depicts Asian growth and Western stagflation, with countries acting in a more isolated manner and insurance businesses operating in emerging markets managing to prosper.

The third, and final, Downside Scenario suggests a 1930s-style depression in the West, combining Eurozone implosion with currency wars and geopolitical tension and unrest."

Whichever way the world is turning out to be, myopic vision and sleep-walking could end up falling into trap-doors or worse-still, over a precipice.

Best regards,

Andrew