Feature article in The Global Analyst of June, 2021, a flagship global business magazine of Hyderabad-based Media-Five Publications Pvt. Ltd., India, of which I am on the Advisory Board.
Download China - No longer the global growth engine - The Global Analyst June 2021
A Bloomberg Research report of 6 July 2021 warns that, depending on various imponderables, China may never be able to overtake the United States as the world's largest economy. The report acknowledges that as China's population is four times the United States while its productivity is about a fifth, China would only have to increase its productivity by more than 25% over a period to claim the top slot. However, "...another path is possible. Stalled reforms, fraying global ties, shrinking workforce and financial crisis could keep China indefinitely in second place."