Publications

Competition Without Catastrophe - Can America both challenge and coexist with China?

Op-ed of 13 October, 2021 in World Strategic Insights, an international non-profit geostrategic platform based in Rome.

 

One Country Two Systems Revisited

Chapter 7 in The Rise of China – Fresh Insights and Observations, published by the Paddy Ashdown Forum (PAF), October, 2021

Download The Rise of China Fresh Insights and observations Online PDF (Extract - One Country Two Systems Revisited) 

China’s ‘common prosperity’ goal won’t mean Robin Hood-style redistribution

Op-ed in the South China Morning Post of 23 September, 2021

China: No longer the Global Growth Engine?

Feature article in The Global Analyst of June, 2021, a flagship global business magazine of Hyderabad-based Media-Five Publications Pvt. Ltd., India, of which I am on the Advisory Board.

Download China - No longer the global growth engine - The Global Analyst June 2021

A Bloomberg Research report of 6 July 2021 warns that, depending on various imponderables, China may never be able to overtake the United States as the world's largest economy. The report acknowledges that as China's population is four times the United States while its productivity is about a fifth, China would only have to increase its productivity by more than 25% over a period to claim the top slot. However, "...another path is possible. Stalled reforms, fraying global ties, shrinking workforce and financial crisis could keep China indefinitely in second place."

New Concert of Powers

Op-ed dated 20 April, 2021 in World Geostrategic Insights, an international non-profit geostrategic platform based in Rome. The article also appears in Chinese, French, Spanish, Russian, and Arabic.

Waning US must overcome fear of China’s inevitable rise to the top

Op-ed in South China Morning Post of 20 May, 2021

What China's Low Growth Means for the World - China's game-changing Five Year Plan (2021-25)

The above is my feature article in The Global Analyst of April, 2021, a flagship global business magazine of Hyderabad-based Media-Five Publications Pvt. Ltd., India, of which I am on the Advisory Board. The subtitle is more to the point of what this piece is about:

"What’s behind China’s Five-Year Plan (2021-25) as GDP growth slows? In a world turned upside down by the pandemic with Great Power rivalries, the 14th Five-Year Plan is a bold blueprint of how Beijing is getting prepared to realize her long-cherished China Dream of national renaissance, against all odds."

Download What China's Low Growth Means for the World 

How the US can offer a realistic response to the "China challenge"

Op-ed in the South China Morning Post of 26 February, 2021.

Along similar lines, Ryan Hass's Op-ed China Is Not Ten Feet Tall: How Alarmism Undermines American Strategy of 3 March, 2021 in Foreign Affairs concludes as follows:

"The more the United States can restore confidence that it is the country best prepared in the world to meet the challenges of the twenty-first century, the better it will be able to focus attention where it matters most: not on slowing China down but on strengthening itself. To compete effectively with China, Washington will need to focus on bolstering the United States’ domestic dynamism, international prestige, and unmatched global network of alliances and partnerships. These are the real keys to the United States’ strength, and China cannot take them away."   

China's Economic Interests in the GCC are informed by energy security and global geopolitics

"China has no ambition of dislodging the United States from the Arab Peninsula. A cordial relationship with all Members of the GCC is in its best interest." That is the lead-in to my Op-ed of 17 February, 2021 in Politics Today, an Istanbul-based international online publisher on contemporary global politics. 

Rogue Superpower: Why This Could Be an Illiberal American Century

Op-ed dated 31 January, 2021 in World Geostrategic Insights, an international non-profit geostrategic platform based in Rome.